Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

VfL Bochum v VfL Osnabrück

Inicio: 2026-08-28 16:30 UTC

Final: VfL Bochum 0–1 VfL Osnabrück

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

VfL Bochum (Local)

Predicción 50.73%1.97momio equitativo
EV -3.10%
Ventaja -1.62%
Kelly -3.40%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.91

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
48.88%50.78%50.71%53.13%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.681.811.821.9159.52%55.33%54.95%52.36%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

VfL Osnabrück (Visitante)

Predicción 24.04%4.16momio equitativo
EV +2.18%
Ventaja +0.512%
Kelly +0.670%
Crecimiento +0.015%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
22.13%24.02%24.09%25.56%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.503.893.904.2528.57%25.72%25.64%23.53%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.22%3.96momio equitativo
EV -2.63%
Ventaja -0.682%
Kelly -0.921%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.86

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.38%25.20%25.20%26.09%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.403.673.703.8629.41%27.28%27.03%25.91%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: VfL Bochum (Local): 50.73%; VfL Osnabrück (Visitante): 24.04%; Empate: 25.22%. Para VfL Osnabrück (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 4.16. 8 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 4.25, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +2.18%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Unibet (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.13%EV -10.20%E -5.76%K -13.25%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV +2.18%E +0.512%K +0.670%G +0.015%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -4.15%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-28 16:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.13%EV -10.20%E -5.76%K -13.25%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV +2.18%E +0.512%K +0.670%G +0.015%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -4.15%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-28 16:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.13%EV -10.20%E -5.76%K -13.25%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV +2.18%E +0.512%K +0.670%G +0.015%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -4.15%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-28 16:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.13%EV -10.20%E -5.76%K -13.25%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV +2.18%E +0.512%K +0.670%G +0.015%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -4.15%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-28 16:05
Grosvenor🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.13%EV -10.20%E -5.76%K -13.25%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV +2.18%E +0.512%K +0.670%G +0.015%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -4.15%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-28 16:05
Casumo🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.13%EV -10.20%E -5.76%K -13.25%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV +2.18%E +0.512%K +0.670%G +0.015%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -4.15%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-28 16:05
Unibet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.13%EV -10.20%E -5.76%K -13.25%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV +2.18%E +0.512%K +0.670%G +0.015%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -4.15%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-28 16:05
betPARX🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.13%EV -10.20%E -5.76%K -13.25%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV +2.18%E +0.512%K +0.670%G +0.015%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -4.15%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-28 16:05
1xBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.55%EV -4.62%E -2.46%K -5.25%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.41%EV -2.39%E -0.589%K -0.781%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.04%EV -7.93%E -2.17%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-28 16:25
Pinnacle🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.86%EV -3.61%E -1.90%K -4.01%G +0.000%4.01I 24.94%NM 24.10%EV -3.59%E -0.896%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 25.04%EV -2.63%E -0.682%K -0.921%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-28 16:25
Fanatics🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.03%EV -5.13%E -2.74%K -5.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.86%EV -3.83%E -0.958%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.11%EV -4.15%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-28 15:40
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.47%EV -6.14%E -3.32%K -7.23%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.80%EV -3.83%E -0.958%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.73%EV -2.89%E -0.750%K -1.01%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-28 16:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.57%EV -7.16%E -3.91%K -8.62%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.59%EV -3.83%E -0.958%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.84%EV -4.15%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-28 16:20
TABtouch🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.60%EV -12.74%E -7.41%K -17.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.62%EV -3.83%E -0.958%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.79%EV -7.93%E -2.17%K -2.99%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-28 16:05
BetRivers🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.56%EV -13.24%E -7.75%K -18.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.47%EV -3.83%E -0.958%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -9.19%E -2.55%K -3.54%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-28 16:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 52.56%EV -13.24%E -7.75%K -18.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.47%EV -3.83%E -0.958%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -9.19%E -2.55%K -3.54%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-28 16:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.94%EV -5.13%E -2.74%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 23.99%EV -4.55%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.07%EV -4.15%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-28 15:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.94%EV -5.13%E -2.74%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.97I 25.19%NM 23.99%EV -4.55%E -1.15%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.07%EV -4.15%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-28 15:35
Codere (IT)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.54%EV -5.13%E -2.74%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.92%EV -5.04%E -1.27%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -6.67%E -1.80%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-28 16:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.67%EV -14.77%E -8.79%K -21.72%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.40%EV -5.04%E -1.27%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.93%EV -10.45%E -2.94%K -4.10%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-28 16:05
PMU (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.67%EV -14.77%E -8.79%K -21.72%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.40%EV -5.04%E -1.27%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.93%EV -10.45%E -2.94%K -4.10%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-28 16:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.67%EV -14.77%E -8.79%K -21.72%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.40%EV -5.04%E -1.27%K -1.71%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.93%EV -10.45%E -2.94%K -4.10%G +0.000%13.0%2026-08-28 16:05
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.55%EV -5.13%E -2.74%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.24%EV -6.24%E -1.60%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.21%EV -5.41%E -1.44%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-28 16:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.25%EV -4.62%E -2.46%K -5.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.22%EV -6.24%E -1.60%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.53%EV -6.67%E -1.80%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-28 16:20
SportsBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.40%EV -7.66%E -4.21%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -6.24%E -1.60%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.62%EV -4.15%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-28 16:20
FanDuel🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.67%EV -8.68%E -4.82%K -10.85%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -6.24%E -1.60%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -4.15%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-28 16:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.33%EV -8.68%E -4.82%K -10.85%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -6.24%E -1.60%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -6.67%E -1.80%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-28 15:45
Betr (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.33%EV -8.68%E -4.82%K -10.85%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -6.24%E -1.60%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.97%EV -6.67%E -1.80%K -2.47%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-28 15:45
Marathon Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.54%EV -8.17%E -4.51%K -10.09%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.04%EV -6.72%E -1.73%K -2.33%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.42%EV -3.64%E -0.954%K -1.29%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-28 16:20
Suprabets🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.76%EV -6.65%E -3.61%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 24.13%EV -6.96%E -1.80%K -2.42%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.11%EV -6.17%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 16:20
Betsson🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.18%EV -7.66%E -4.21%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.72%EV -7.44%E -1.93%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -11.71%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-28 16:20
NordicBet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.18%EV -7.66%E -4.21%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.72%EV -7.44%E -1.93%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -11.71%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-28 16:20
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.70%EV -3.10%E -1.62%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.98%EV -8.64%E -2.27%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.32%EV -5.41%E -1.44%K -1.97%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-28 15:40
Winamax (DE)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.53%EV -5.63%E -3.03%K -6.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.73%EV -8.64%E -2.27%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.73%EV -4.15%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-28 16:20
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.25%EV -7.16%E -3.91%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.20%EV -8.64%E -2.27%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -9.19%E -2.55%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-28 16:20
Bovada🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.39%EV -7.66%E -4.21%K -9.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.13%EV -8.64%E -2.27%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -9.19%E -2.55%K -3.54%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-28 16:25
William Hill🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.89%EV -7.16%E -3.91%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.03%EV -8.64%E -2.27%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -11.71%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-28 16:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.89%EV -7.16%E -3.91%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.03%EV -8.64%E -2.27%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -11.71%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-28 16:15
888sport🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.89%EV -7.16%E -3.91%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.03%EV -8.64%E -2.27%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -11.71%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-28 16:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.89%EV -7.16%E -3.91%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.03%EV -8.64%E -2.27%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -11.71%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-28 16:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.49%EV -8.68%E -4.82%K -10.85%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.91%EV -8.64%E -2.27%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.60%EV -10.45%E -2.94%K -4.10%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-28 16:18
Unibet (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 50.91%EV -10.20%E -5.76%K -13.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.71%EV -8.64%E -2.27%K -3.09%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.38%EV -10.45%E -2.94%K -4.10%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-28 16:19
betano_uk🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.34%EV -6.14%E -3.32%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -9.84%E -2.63%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -5.41%E -1.44%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-28 16:25
Bet Victor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.34%EV -6.14%E -3.32%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -9.84%E -2.63%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.83%EV -5.41%E -1.44%K -1.97%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-28 16:25
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -8.68%E -4.82%K -10.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -9.84%E -2.63%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -5.41%E -1.44%K -1.97%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-28 15:45
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.56%EV -11.22%E -6.41%K -14.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.06%EV -9.84%E -2.63%K -3.58%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.38%EV -6.67%E -1.80%K -2.47%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-28 16:20
PlayUp🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.39%EV -5.13%E -2.74%K -5.89%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -11.05%E -2.99%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -9.19%E -2.55%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-28 16:20
LeoVegas🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -6.14%E -3.32%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -11.05%E -2.99%K -4.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -9.19%E -2.55%K -3.54%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-28 16:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.10%EV -9.69%E -5.45%K -12.43%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.77%EV -13.45%E -3.74%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.12%EV -10.45%E -2.94%K -4.10%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-28 16:20
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.35%EV -11.22%E -6.41%K -14.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.48%EV -13.45%E -3.74%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.17%EV -11.71%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-28 16:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 50.27%EV -12.23%E -7.07%K -16.75%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.16%EV -13.45%E -3.74%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.58%EV -14.24%E -4.19%K -5.93%G +0.000%15.0%2026-08-28 16:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.88%EV -7.16%E -3.91%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -15.85%E -4.53%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -11.71%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-28 15:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.88%EV -7.16%E -3.91%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -15.85%E -4.53%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -11.71%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-28 15:40
Neds🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.88%EV -7.16%E -3.91%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -15.85%E -4.53%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -11.71%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-28 15:40
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.88%EV -7.16%E -3.91%K -8.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -15.85%E -4.53%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.56%EV -11.71%E -3.35%K -4.69%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-28 15:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi◎1.92I 52.08%NM 52.06%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.97%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.97%0.0%2026-08-28 16:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.91I 52.36%NM 52.07%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.68%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.26%0.6%2026-08-28 16:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.64%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.18%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.18%0.9%2026-08-28 16:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.64%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.18%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.18%0.9%2026-08-28 16:25
Smarkets◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.62%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.60%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.78%0.9%2026-08-28 16:25
Matchbook◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.33%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.04%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.64%1.5%2026-08-28 16:25