The School of Odds
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SV Darmstadt 98 v FC St. Pauli

Kickoff: 2026-10-23 16:30 UTC

Final: SV Darmstadt 98 0–0 FC St. Pauli

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SV Darmstadt 98 (Local)

Prediction 31.49%3.18fair odd
EV +0.781%
Edge +0.244%
Kelly +0.355%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.48%31.44%31.47%33.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.952.903.2035.71%33.88%34.48%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC St. Pauli (Visit)

Prediction 41.20%2.43fair odd
EV -3.19%
Edge -1.36%
Kelly -2.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.10%41.22%41.30%43.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.222.252.3548.78%45.02%44.44%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.31%3.66fair odd
EV -1.69%
Edge -0.469%
Kelly -0.649%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.11%27.34%27.23%28.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.383.353.6032.26%29.56%29.85%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SV Darmstadt 98 (Local): 31.49%; FC St. Pauli (Visit): 41.20%; Draw: 27.31%. For SV Darmstadt 98 (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.18. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.781%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV +0.781%E +0.244%K +0.355%G +0.003%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -7.31%E -3.25%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -9.88%E -2.99%K -4.30%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-23 15:40
Pinnacle🎯3.18I 31.45%NM 30.46%EV +0.151%E +0.047%K +0.069%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.39%EV -3.60%E -1.54%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 28.15%EV -6.06%E -1.76%K -2.48%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-23 15:55
BetMGM🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.68%EV -2.37%E -0.764%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.35%EV -5.25%E -2.28%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-23 14:30
Fanatics🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -2.37%E -0.764%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -7.31%E -3.25%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-23 15:45
Unibet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -2.37%E -0.764%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.15%EV -10.19%E -4.67%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -3.05%E -0.860%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-23 15:45
Grosvenor🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -2.37%E -0.764%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.15%EV -10.19%E -4.67%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -3.05%E -0.860%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-23 15:45
Casumo🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -2.37%E -0.764%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.15%EV -10.19%E -4.67%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -3.05%E -0.860%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-23 15:45
Unibet (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -2.37%E -0.764%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.15%EV -10.19%E -4.67%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -3.05%E -0.860%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-23 15:45
Unibet (NL)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -2.37%E -0.764%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.15%EV -10.19%E -4.67%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -3.05%E -0.860%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-23 15:45
ATG (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -2.37%E -0.764%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.15%EV -10.19%E -4.67%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -3.05%E -0.860%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-23 15:45
Svenska Spel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -2.37%E -0.764%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.15%EV -10.19%E -4.67%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -3.05%E -0.860%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-23 15:45
betPARX🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -2.37%E -0.764%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.15%EV -10.19%E -4.67%K -8.64%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -3.05%E -0.860%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-23 15:45
LowVig.ag🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.27%EV -3.94%E -1.29%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.47%EV -5.25%E -2.28%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.25%EV -4.42%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-23 11:05
BetOnline.ag🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.27%EV -3.94%E -1.29%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.47%EV -5.25%E -2.28%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.25%EV -4.42%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-23 11:05
SportsBet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.49%EV -3.94%E -1.29%K -1.92%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.33%EV -7.31%E -3.25%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.18%EV -9.88%E -2.99%K -4.30%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-23 15:35
1xBet🎯3.01I 33.22%NM 31.04%EV -5.20%E -1.73%K -2.59%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.98%EV -6.07%E -2.66%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.98%EV -8.79%E -2.63%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-23 08:36
DraftKings🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.25%EV -5.52%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.76%EV -5.25%E -2.28%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.99%EV -8.51%E -2.54%K -3.62%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-23 14:30
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -5.52%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -5.25%E -2.28%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -9.88%E -2.99%K -4.30%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-23 15:45
Marathon Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.00%EV -5.52%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 41.15%EV -6.89%E -3.05%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.85%EV -8.79%E -2.63%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-23 08:30
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -5.52%E -1.84%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -7.31%E -3.25%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.88%E -2.99%K -4.30%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-23 15:35
Codere (IT)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.05%EV -7.09%E -2.40%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 40.93%EV -4.84%E -2.09%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.02%EV -4.42%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-23 08:50
Bovada🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.04%EV -7.09%E -2.40%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.62%EV -9.37%E -4.26%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.33%EV -8.51%E -2.54%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-23 15:50
TABtouch🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.68%EV -7.09%E -2.40%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 42.70%EV -12.66%E -5.97%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-23 15:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.44%EV -7.09%E -2.40%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.76%EV -13.49%E -6.42%K -12.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.80%EV -8.51%E -2.54%K -3.62%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-23 15:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.44%EV -7.09%E -2.40%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.76%EV -13.49%E -6.42%K -12.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.80%EV -8.51%E -2.54%K -3.62%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-23 15:45
BetRivers🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.44%EV -7.09%E -2.40%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.76%EV -13.49%E -6.42%K -12.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.80%EV -8.51%E -2.54%K -3.62%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-23 15:45
Coolbet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.90%EV -8.67%E -2.99%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.60%EV -3.19%E -1.36%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -1.69%E -0.469%K -0.649%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-23 15:11
picklebet_au🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -8.67%E -2.99%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -5.25%E -2.28%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -4.42%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-23 08:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -8.67%E -2.99%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -5.25%E -2.28%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -4.42%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-23 08:45
betano_uk🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -8.67%E -2.99%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -7.31%E -3.25%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -4.42%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-23 15:49
Bet Victor🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -8.67%E -2.99%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -7.31%E -3.25%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -4.42%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-23 15:44
Winamax (DE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.95%EV -8.67%E -2.99%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.19%EV -7.31%E -3.25%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -5.78%E -1.68%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-23 08:45
theScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -8.67%E -2.99%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -7.31%E -3.25%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-23 08:45
PlayUp🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -8.67%E -2.99%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -7.31%E -3.25%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-23 15:35
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -8.67%E -2.99%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -7.31%E -3.25%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -11.25%E -3.46%K -5.00%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-23 15:25
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -8.67%E -2.99%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -7.31%E -3.25%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -11.25%E -3.46%K -5.00%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-23 15:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -8.67%E -2.99%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -7.31%E -3.25%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -11.25%E -3.46%K -5.00%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-23 15:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.43%EV -8.67%E -2.99%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.52%EV -7.31%E -3.25%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -11.25%E -3.46%K -5.00%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-23 15:25
Paddy Power🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.01%EV -8.67%E -2.99%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.88%EV -9.37%E -4.26%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.11%EV -12.61%E -3.94%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-23 15:35
PMU (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.49%EV -8.67%E -2.99%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 42.72%EV -14.72%E -7.11%K -13.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.79%EV -9.88%E -2.99%K -4.30%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-23 15:45
LiveScore Bet🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 30.49%EV -8.67%E -2.99%K -4.56%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 42.72%EV -14.72%E -7.11%K -13.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.79%EV -9.88%E -2.99%K -4.30%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-23 15:45
Neds🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -9.30%E -3.23%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -9.37%E -4.26%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -12.61%E -3.94%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-23 14:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -9.30%E -3.23%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -9.37%E -4.26%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -12.61%E -3.94%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-23 14:30
Sky Bet🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 30.88%EV -9.30%E -3.23%K -4.95%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -9.37%E -4.26%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.69%EV -15.34%E -4.95%K -7.31%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-23 15:11
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -9.61%E -3.35%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.75%EV -9.37%E -4.26%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -12.61%E -3.94%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-23 14:30
Coral🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -9.61%E -3.35%K -5.14%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.75%EV -9.37%E -4.26%K -7.81%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -12.61%E -3.94%K -5.73%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-23 14:30
LeoVegas🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -10.24%E -3.59%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -5.25%E -2.28%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.53%EV -8.51%E -2.54%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-23 15:06
NordicBet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -10.24%E -3.59%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -7.31%E -3.25%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.29%EV -8.51%E -2.54%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-23 08:45
Betsson🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.08%EV -10.24%E -3.59%K -5.54%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -7.31%E -3.25%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.29%EV -8.51%E -2.54%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-23 08:45
Betclic (FR)🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 31.51%EV -10.87%E -3.84%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 41.87%EV -12.25%E -5.75%K -10.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.62%EV -8.51%E -2.54%K -3.62%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-23 08:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -11.82%E -4.22%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -5.25%E -2.28%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -4.42%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-23 15:12
Betr (AU)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -11.82%E -4.22%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -5.25%E -2.28%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -4.42%E -1.26%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-23 15:11
betfred_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -11.82%E -4.22%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.31%E -3.25%K -5.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -7.15%E -2.10%K -2.98%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-23 15:11
Winamax (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.87%EV -11.82%E -4.22%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.50%EV -11.43%E -5.31%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.63%EV -8.51%E -2.54%K -3.62%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-23 08:45
NetBet (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.42%EV -11.82%E -4.22%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 41.50%EV -12.66%E -5.97%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.07%EV -11.25%E -3.46%K -5.00%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-23 15:44
Unibet (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.23%EV -11.82%E -4.22%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 42.66%EV -15.55%E -7.58%K -14.81%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.11%EV -8.51%E -2.54%K -3.62%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-23 15:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎3.20I 31.25%NM 31.02%2.42I 41.32%NM 41.02%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.96%0.7%2026-10-23 15:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.20I 31.25%NM 30.91%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.22%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.87%1.1%2026-10-23 15:59
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.20I 31.25%NM 30.91%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.22%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.87%1.1%2026-10-23 15:59
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.20I 31.25%NM 30.91%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.22%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.87%1.1%2026-10-23 15:59
Smarkets◎3.15I 31.75%NM 31.25%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.02%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.73%1.6%2026-10-23 15:59
Kalshi◎3.23I 30.96%NM 30.36%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.21%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.43%2.0%2026-10-23 15:50