Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

SC Preußen Münster v Greuther Fürth

Inicio: 2026-04-11 11:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

SC Preußen Münster (Local)

Predicción 44.53%2.25momio equitativo
EV -4.27%
Ventaja -1.98%
Kelly -3.71%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.15

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.74%44.50%44.59%45.39%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.932.082.102.1551.81%48.10%47.62%46.51%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Greuther Fürth (Visitante)

Predicción 27.47%3.64momio equitativo
EV +0.271%
Ventaja +0.074%
Kelly +0.102%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.51%27.49%27.43%29.18%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.053.323.303.6532.79%30.15%30.30%27.40%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 28.00%3.57momio equitativo
EV -2.00%
Ventaja -0.570%
Kelly -0.798%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.50

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.91%28.00%27.97%29.68%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.883.293.303.5034.72%30.40%30.30%28.57%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: SC Preußen Münster (Local): 44.53%; Greuther Fürth (Visitante): 27.47%; Empate: 28.00%. Para Greuther Fürth (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.64. 1 corredor ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.65, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +0.271%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 45.21%EV -4.71%E -2.20%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.51%EV +0.271%E +0.074%K +0.102%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 28.29%EV -4.24%E -1.24%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-11 10:50
1xBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.16%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 27.02%EV -3.58%E -1.02%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.81%EV -4.52%E -1.32%K -1.87%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-11 10:50
Suprabets🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.91%EV -7.38%E -3.55%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.51I 28.49%NM 26.61%EV -3.58%E -1.02%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.48%EV -8.16%E -2.49%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 10:35
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -3.85%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -7.60%E -2.30%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-11 10:38
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -3.85%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -7.60%E -2.30%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-11 10:24
Everygame🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -3.85%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -7.60%E -2.30%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-11 10:33
Marathon Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.07%EV -7.83%E -3.78%K -7.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.66%EV -3.85%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.27%EV -7.60%E -2.30%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-11 10:49
SportsBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -8.72%E -4.25%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -3.85%E -1.10%K -1.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -7.60%E -2.30%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-11 10:40
DraftKings🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.15%EV -4.27%E -1.98%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.51%EV -5.22%E -1.51%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.34%EV -6.20%E -1.85%K -2.64%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-11 10:25
Codere (IT)🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 44.80%EV -6.05%E -2.87%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -5.22%E -1.51%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.80%EV -4.80%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-11 10:30
Coolbet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.86%EV -5.60%E -2.64%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.17%EV -2.00%E -0.570%K -0.798%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-11 10:39
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.09%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.06%EV -2.00%E -0.570%K -0.798%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-11 10:39
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -4.27%E -1.98%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -7.60%E -2.30%K -3.30%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 10:24
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.55%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.93%EV -6.20%E -1.85%K -2.64%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-11 10:25
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -7.60%E -2.30%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 10:25
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.72%E -4.25%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.33%EV -4.80%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-11 10:38
LowVig.ag🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.74%EV -5.60%E -2.64%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -10.40%E -3.25%K -4.73%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 10:35
BetOnline.ag🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.74%EV -5.60%E -2.64%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -10.40%E -3.25%K -4.73%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 10:35
PlayUp🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.41%EV -7.38%E -3.55%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.17%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.42%EV -9.00%E -2.77%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-11 10:34
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -13.20%E -4.26%K -6.28%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-11 10:35
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -13.20%E -4.26%K -6.28%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-11 10:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -13.20%E -4.26%K -6.28%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-11 10:40
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -13.20%E -4.26%K -6.28%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-11 10:40
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -10.95%E -5.47%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -6.60%E -1.94%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -10.40%E -3.25%K -4.73%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-11 10:39
Betsson🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.42%EV -7.38%E -3.55%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -7.97%E -2.38%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -7.60%E -2.30%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-11 10:25
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.42%EV -7.38%E -3.55%K -6.84%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.58%EV -7.97%E -2.38%K -3.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -7.60%E -2.30%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-11 10:25
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -9.34%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -7.60%E -2.30%K -3.30%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-11 10:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -8.72%E -4.25%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -9.34%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -4.80%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-11 10:24
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -8.72%E -4.25%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -9.34%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -4.80%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-11 10:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -8.72%E -4.25%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -9.34%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -4.80%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-11 10:24
Unibet (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.39%EV -12.28%E -6.23%K -12.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.10%EV -9.34%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.51%EV -9.00%E -2.77%K -4.00%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-11 10:35
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.42%EV -10.95%E -5.47%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.92%EV -9.34%E -2.83%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.66%EV -13.20%E -4.26%K -6.28%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-11 10:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.71%EV -10.95%E -5.47%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.27I 30.58%NM 27.35%EV -10.17%E -3.11%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.94%EV -10.40%E -3.25%K -4.73%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-11 10:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.77%EV -4.27%E -1.98%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -10.72%E -3.30%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -3.40%E -0.984%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 10:09
ATG (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.77%EV -4.27%E -1.98%K -3.71%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -10.72%E -3.30%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -3.40%E -0.984%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 10:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -8.72%E -4.25%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -10.72%E -3.30%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -13.20%E -4.26%K -6.28%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-11 10:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -8.72%E -4.25%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -10.72%E -3.30%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -13.20%E -4.26%K -6.28%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-11 10:24
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -8.72%E -4.25%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -10.72%E -3.30%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -13.20%E -4.26%K -6.28%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-11 10:25
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -8.72%E -4.25%K -8.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -10.72%E -3.30%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -13.20%E -4.26%K -6.28%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-11 10:25
Unibet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.74%EV -5.60%E -2.64%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -12.09%E -3.78%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -4.80%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 10:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.74%EV -5.60%E -2.64%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -12.09%E -3.78%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -4.80%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 10:09
BetRivers🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.74%EV -5.60%E -2.64%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -12.09%E -3.78%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -4.80%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 10:09
Unibet (NL)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.74%EV -5.60%E -2.64%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -12.09%E -3.78%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -4.80%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 10:10
Casumo🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.74%EV -5.60%E -2.64%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -12.09%E -3.78%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -4.80%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 10:09
Unibet (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.74%EV -5.60%E -2.64%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -12.09%E -3.78%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -4.80%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 10:09
Grosvenor🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.74%EV -5.60%E -2.64%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -12.09%E -3.78%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -4.80%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 10:10
TABtouch🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.74%EV -5.60%E -2.64%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -12.09%E -3.78%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -4.80%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 10:10
betPARX🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.74%EV -5.60%E -2.64%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.98%EV -12.09%E -3.78%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -4.80%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.8%2026-04-11 10:10
NetBet (FR)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 44.93%EV -14.06%E -7.29%K -15.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.10%EV -12.09%E -3.78%K -5.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.97%EV -13.20%E -4.26%K -6.28%G +0.000%15.3%2026-04-11 10:39
LeoVegas🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -6.49%E -3.09%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -13.46%E -4.27%K -6.26%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -4.80%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-11 10:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.30%EV -11.84%E -5.98%K -12.08%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.29%EV -14.84%E -4.79%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.41%EV -10.40%E -3.25%K -4.73%G +0.000%14.0%2026-04-11 10:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.74%EV -10.95%E -5.47%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.58%EV -14.84%E -4.79%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.68%EV -19.36%E -6.72%K -10.30%G +0.000%17.0%2026-04-11 10:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 43.97%EV -10.05%E -4.98%K -9.86%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.12%EV -16.21%E -5.32%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.91%EV -7.60%E -2.30%K -3.30%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-11 10:09
LiveScore Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 43.97%EV -10.05%E -4.98%K -9.86%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.12%EV -16.21%E -5.32%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.91%EV -7.60%E -2.30%K -3.30%G +0.000%12.6%2026-04-11 10:10
PMU (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.03%EV -10.95%E -5.47%K -10.95%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.87%EV -16.21%E -5.32%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.10%EV -9.00%E -2.77%K -4.00%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-11 10:09
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Kalshi2.17I 46.08%NM 46.02%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.99%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.99%0.1%2026-04-11 10:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.18I 45.87%NM 45.71%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.22%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.07%0.4%2026-04-11 10:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.18I 45.87%NM 45.71%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.22%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.07%0.4%2026-04-11 10:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.14I 46.73%NM 46.29%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.40%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.30%0.9%2026-04-11 10:50
Matchbook2.14I 46.73%NM 46.29%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.40%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.30%0.9%2026-04-11 10:50
Smarkets2.14I 46.73%NM 45.64%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.05%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.31%2.4%2026-04-11 10:50