The School of Odds
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SC Preußen Münster v Arminia Bielefeld

Kickoff: 2026-04-26 11:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SC Preußen Münster (Local)

Prediction 30.06%3.33fair odd
EV -5.33%
Edge -1.69%
Kelly -2.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.28%30.55%30.06%34.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.553.013.083.1539.22%33.18%32.52%31.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arminia Bielefeld (Visit)

Prediction 43.52%2.30fair odd
EV -2.95%
Edge -1.32%
Kelly -2.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.27%43.03%43.59%44.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.112.102.2350.00%47.47%47.62%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.43%3.78fair odd
EV -0.903%
Edge -0.241%
Kelly -0.328%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.52%26.42%26.35%28.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.433.503.7533.33%29.16%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SC Preußen Münster (Local): 30.06%; Arminia Bielefeld (Visit): 43.52%; Draw: 26.43%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.78. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.75, with an expected value of -0.903%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.38%EV -5.33%E -1.69%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.10%EV -5.56%E -2.56%K -4.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.52%EV -0.903%E -0.241%K -0.328%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-19 12:50
LowVig.ag🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -5.33%E -1.69%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.42%EV -6.00%E -2.78%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -7.51%E -2.15%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-20 12:44
BetOnline.ag🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.78%EV -5.33%E -1.69%K -2.48%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 43.42%EV -6.00%E -2.78%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -7.51%E -2.15%K -3.00%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-20 12:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -6.83%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -8.61%E -4.10%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.51%E -2.15%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-20 14:39
DraftKings🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.75%EV -6.83%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.91%EV -8.61%E -4.10%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -7.51%E -2.15%K -3.00%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-19 20:25
888sport🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -6.83%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -8.61%E -4.10%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -12.79%E -3.88%K -5.56%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-19 12:45
William Hill🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -6.83%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -8.61%E -4.10%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -12.79%E -3.88%K -5.56%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-19 12:45
888sport (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -6.83%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -8.61%E -4.10%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -12.79%E -3.88%K -5.56%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-19 12:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.28%EV -6.83%E -2.20%K -3.25%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.22%EV -8.61%E -4.10%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.50%EV -12.79%E -3.88%K -5.56%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-19 12:45
Betr (AU)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 30.31%EV -8.33%E -2.73%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.02%EV -8.61%E -4.10%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -4.87%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-20 14:40
SportsBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -9.83%E -3.28%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -8.61%E -4.10%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -4.87%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-19 12:50
FanDuel🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -9.83%E -3.28%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -8.61%E -4.10%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -4.87%E -1.35%K -1.87%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-19 12:48
Betway🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.51%EV -9.83%E -3.28%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.57%EV -6.44%E -2.99%K -5.60%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -10.15%E -2.99%K -4.23%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-19 12:19
betfred_uk🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.83%E -3.28%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.48%EV -8.61%E -4.10%K -7.83%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.09%EV -7.51%E -2.15%K -3.00%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-20 14:30
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -9.83%E -3.28%K -4.92%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -10.79%E -5.26%K -10.27%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -7.51%E -2.15%K -3.00%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-19 12:50
Sky Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.66%EV -15.84%E -5.66%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.92%EV -12.96%E -6.48%K -12.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.42%EV -14.12%E -4.34%K -6.27%G +0.000%16.5%2026-04-19 12:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 30.00%EV -15.84%E -5.66%K -8.80%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.00%EV -12.96%E -6.48%K -12.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.00%EV -20.72%E -6.91%K -10.36%G +0.000%19.0%2026-04-20 14:39
Betclic (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.35%EV -23.36%E -9.16%K -15.07%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 39.27%EV -2.95%E -1.32%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 26.38%EV -12.27%E -3.69%K -5.29%G +0.000%14.2%2026-04-18 12:57
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 31.91%1.20I 83.33%NM 31.12%1.01I 99.01%NM 36.97%167.8%2026-04-20 08:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 31.91%1.20I 83.33%NM 31.12%1.01I 99.01%NM 36.97%167.8%2026-04-20 08:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.17I 85.47%NM 31.91%1.20I 83.33%NM 31.12%1.01I 99.01%NM 36.97%167.8%2026-04-20 08:50