La escuela de los momios

SC Paderborn v Karlsruher SC

Inicio: 2026-05-08 16:30 UTC

Final: SC Paderborn 2–2 Karlsruher SC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

SC Paderborn (Local)

Predicción 67.61%1.48momio equitativo
EV -3.32%
Ventaja -2.32%
Kelly -7.73%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.43

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
65.33%67.66%67.64%70.37%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.301.371.381.4376.92%72.94%72.46%69.93%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Karlsruher SC (Visitante)

Predicción 14.52%6.89momio equitativo
EV +5.25%
Ventaja +0.724%
Kelly +0.840%
Crecimiento +0.044%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 7.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
13.10%14.51%14.46%16.46%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
5.406.316.407.2518.52%15.85%15.63%13.79%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 17.88%5.59momio equitativo
EV +1.89%
Ventaja +0.332%
Kelly +0.403%
Crecimiento +0.008%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
16.46%17.83%17.91%20.01%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.335.085.005.7023.09%19.70%20.00%17.54%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Coolbet1.38I 72.46%NM 68.81%EV -6.70%E -4.86%K -17.64%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.10%EV +5.25%E +0.724%K +0.840%G +0.044%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.09%EV -6.15%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-08 15:34
Pinnacle1.40I 71.43%NM 68.99%EV -5.35%E -3.82%K -13.38%G +0.000%7.18I 13.93%NM 13.45%EV +4.23%E +0.589%K +0.685%G +0.029%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.56%EV -1.68%E -0.306%K -0.374%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-08 16:20
Tipico (DE)1.35I 74.07%NM 69.94%EV -8.73%E -6.47%K -24.95%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.49%EV +1.62%E +0.231%K +0.270%G +0.004%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.57%EV +1.89%E +0.332%K +0.403%G +0.008%5.9%2026-05-08 16:25
SportsBet1.33I 75.19%NM 69.84%EV -10.08%E -7.58%K -30.55%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV +1.62%E +0.231%K +0.270%G +0.004%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.89%EV -1.68%E -0.306%K -0.374%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-08 15:24
FanDuel1.31I 76.34%NM 70.37%EV -11.44%E -8.73%K -36.89%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV +1.62%E +0.231%K +0.270%G +0.004%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.46%EV +0.107%E +0.019%K +0.023%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 15:24
LowVig.ag1.37I 72.99%NM 68.72%EV -7.38%E -5.39%K -19.94%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.85%EV -1.28%E -0.189%K -0.221%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV -3.47%E -0.642%K -0.788%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-08 16:19
BetOnline.ag1.37I 72.99%NM 68.72%EV -7.38%E -5.39%K -19.94%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.85%EV -1.28%E -0.189%K -0.221%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV -3.47%E -0.642%K -0.788%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-08 16:19
Betr (AU)1.38I 72.46%NM 67.55%EV -6.70%E -4.86%K -17.64%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.81%EV -2.01%E -0.298%K -0.350%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.64%EV -10.62%E -2.12%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-08 15:34
PointsBet (AU)1.36I 73.53%NM 68.47%EV -8.05%E -5.92%K -22.37%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.80%EV -2.01%E -0.298%K -0.350%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.74%EV -6.15%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-08 15:35
Everygame1.36I 73.53%NM 68.47%EV -8.05%E -5.92%K -22.37%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.80%EV -2.01%E -0.298%K -0.350%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.74%EV -6.15%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-08 16:04
Suprabets1.37I 72.99%NM 68.35%EV -7.38%E -5.39%K -19.94%G +0.000%6.70I 14.93%NM 13.98%EV -2.74%E -0.408%K -0.480%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.67%EV -5.26%E -0.992%K -1.22%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-08 16:10
Marathon Bet1.37I 72.99%NM 68.05%EV -7.38%E -5.39%K -19.94%G +0.000%6.65I 15.04%NM 14.02%EV -3.46%E -0.521%K -0.613%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.93%EV -7.04%E -1.35%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-08 16:04
Codere (IT)1.38I 72.46%NM 68.28%EV -6.70%E -4.86%K -17.64%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 14.28%EV -4.19%E -0.635%K -0.748%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.45%EV -3.47%E -0.642%K -0.788%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-08 15:29
Unibet (UK)1.40I 71.43%NM 67.47%EV -5.35%E -3.82%K -13.38%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -5.64%E -0.868%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.99%EV -6.15%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-08 16:24
Svenska Spel1.41I 70.92%NM 66.96%EV -4.67%E -3.32%K -11.40%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -5.64%E -0.868%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.51%EV -8.83%E -1.73%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-08 15:45
ATG (SE)1.41I 70.92%NM 66.96%EV -4.67%E -3.32%K -11.40%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.53%EV -5.64%E -0.868%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.51%EV -8.83%E -1.73%K -2.15%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-08 15:44
DraftKings1.39I 71.94%NM 67.63%EV -6.03%E -4.34%K -15.45%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.46%EV -5.64%E -0.868%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.91%EV -6.15%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-08 16:24
Fanatics1.38I 72.46%NM 67.79%EV -6.70%E -4.86%K -17.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.39%EV -5.64%E -0.868%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.82%EV -6.15%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-08 16:19
Bet Victor1.36I 73.53%NM 68.11%EV -8.05%E -5.92%K -22.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -5.64%E -0.868%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.64%EV -6.15%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000%8.0%2026-05-08 16:23
PlayUp1.38I 72.46%NM 66.81%EV -6.70%E -4.86%K -17.64%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.18%EV -5.64%E -0.868%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.01%EV -13.30%E -2.74%K -3.45%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 16:24
betfred_uk1.36I 73.53%NM 67.51%EV -8.05%E -5.92%K -22.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -5.64%E -0.868%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.36%EV -10.62%E -2.12%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-08 15:33
Paddy Power1.30I 76.92%NM 68.49%EV -12.11%E -9.32%K -40.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.70%EV -5.64%E -0.868%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.81%EV -10.62%E -2.12%K -2.65%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-08 15:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.30I 76.92%NM 66.66%EV -12.11%E -9.32%K -40.37%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.33%EV -5.64%E -0.868%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.01%EV -22.60%E -5.22%K -6.79%G +0.000%15.4%2026-05-08 15:24
Unibet1.40I 71.43%NM 66.72%EV -5.35%E -3.82%K -13.38%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.60%EV -7.09%E -1.11%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -10.62%E -2.12%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-08 15:44
Unibet (NL)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.72%EV -5.35%E -3.82%K -13.38%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.60%EV -7.09%E -1.11%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -10.62%E -2.12%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-08 15:45
Grosvenor1.40I 71.43%NM 66.72%EV -5.35%E -3.82%K -13.38%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.60%EV -7.09%E -1.11%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -10.62%E -2.12%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-08 15:45
Casumo1.40I 71.43%NM 66.72%EV -5.35%E -3.82%K -13.38%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.60%EV -7.09%E -1.11%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -10.62%E -2.12%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-08 15:44
TABtouch1.40I 71.43%NM 66.72%EV -5.35%E -3.82%K -13.38%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.60%EV -7.09%E -1.11%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -10.62%E -2.12%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-08 15:44
Unibet (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 66.72%EV -5.35%E -3.82%K -13.38%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.60%EV -7.09%E -1.11%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -10.62%E -2.12%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-08 15:45
betPARX1.40I 71.43%NM 66.72%EV -5.35%E -3.82%K -13.38%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.60%EV -7.09%E -1.11%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -10.62%E -2.12%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-08 15:44
LeoVegas (SE)1.38I 72.46%NM 67.04%EV -6.70%E -4.86%K -17.64%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.46%EV -7.09%E -1.11%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -10.62%E -2.12%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-08 15:45
BetRivers1.38I 72.46%NM 67.04%EV -6.70%E -4.86%K -17.64%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.46%EV -7.09%E -1.11%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -10.62%E -2.12%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-08 15:44
LeoVegas1.38I 72.46%NM 66.79%EV -6.70%E -4.86%K -17.64%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.40%EV -7.09%E -1.11%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.81%EV -12.41%E -2.53%K -3.18%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-08 15:34
BetMGM1.43I 69.93%NM 66.61%EV -3.32%E -2.32%K -7.73%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.24%EV -9.27%E -1.48%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.14%EV -6.15%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-08 16:09
Sky Bet1.30I 76.92%NM 68.12%EV -12.11%E -9.32%K -40.37%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.17%EV -9.27%E -1.48%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.71%EV -10.62%E -2.12%K -2.65%G +0.000%12.9%2026-05-08 15:24
NordicBet1.38I 72.46%NM 66.93%EV -6.70%E -4.86%K -17.64%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.14%EV -11.45%E -1.88%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 17.93%EV -7.94%E -1.54%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-08 16:24
Betsson1.38I 72.46%NM 66.93%EV -6.70%E -4.86%K -17.64%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 15.14%EV -11.45%E -1.88%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 17.93%EV -7.94%E -1.54%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-08 16:25
LiveScore Bet1.33I 75.19%NM 66.88%EV -10.08%E -7.58%K -30.55%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.58%EV -11.45%E -1.88%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.53%EV -14.19%E -2.96%K -3.74%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-08 15:45
Virgin Bet1.33I 75.19%NM 66.88%EV -10.08%E -7.58%K -30.55%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.58%EV -11.45%E -1.88%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.53%EV -14.19%E -2.96%K -3.74%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-08 15:45
PMU (FR)1.32I 75.76%NM 66.79%EV -10.76%E -8.15%K -33.62%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.45%EV -11.45%E -1.88%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.76%EV -15.98%E -3.40%K -4.32%G +0.000%13.4%2026-05-08 15:34
theScore Bet1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.35%E -3.82%K -13.38%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -12.90%E -2.15%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.78%EV -6.15%E -1.17%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-08 16:25
Bovada1.40I 71.43%NM 66.55%EV -5.35%E -3.82%K -13.38%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.53%EV -12.90%E -2.15%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.92%EV -7.04%E -1.35%K -1.68%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-08 16:25
Betway1.40I 71.43%NM 66.08%EV -5.35%E -3.82%K -13.38%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV -12.90%E -2.15%K -2.58%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.50%EV -10.62%E -2.12%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-08 15:24
888sport1.40I 71.43%NM 65.57%EV -5.35%E -3.82%K -13.38%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -12.90%E -2.15%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -14.19%E -2.96%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-08 16:24
William Hill1.40I 71.43%NM 65.57%EV -5.35%E -3.82%K -13.38%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -12.90%E -2.15%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -14.19%E -2.96%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-08 16:24
Mr Green (SE)1.40I 71.43%NM 65.57%EV -5.35%E -3.82%K -13.38%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.30%EV -12.90%E -2.15%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.13%EV -14.19%E -2.96%K -3.74%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-08 16:24
888sport (SE)1.36I 73.53%NM 66.23%EV -8.05%E -5.92%K -22.37%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.01%EV -12.90%E -2.15%K -2.58%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.76%EV -14.19%E -2.96%K -3.74%G +0.000%11.0%2026-05-08 16:25
Unibet (FR)1.34I 74.63%NM 66.76%EV -9.41%E -7.02%K -27.67%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 15.16%EV -14.35%E -2.43%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.07%EV -11.51%E -2.33%K -2.91%G +0.000%11.8%2026-05-08 16:24
Winamax (DE)1.37I 72.99%NM 67.12%EV -7.38%E -5.39%K -19.94%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.85%EV -15.80%E -2.72%K -3.29%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.03%EV -3.47%E -0.642%K -0.788%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-08 16:24
NetBet (FR)1.30I 76.92%NM 67.14%EV -12.11%E -9.32%K -40.37%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 15.05%EV -15.80%E -2.72%K -3.29%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.81%EV -12.41%E -2.53%K -3.18%G +0.000%14.6%2026-05-08 16:24
1xBet1.43I 69.93%NM 66.42%EV -3.32%E -2.32%K -7.73%G +0.000%5.77I 17.33%NM 16.46%EV -16.24%E -2.81%K -3.40%G +0.000%5.55I 18.02%NM 17.11%EV -0.787%E -0.142%K -0.173%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-08 16:25
Betclic (FR)1.34I 74.63%NM 66.38%EV -9.41%E -7.02%K -27.67%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 15.47%EV -16.53%E -2.87%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.15%EV -12.41%E -2.53%K -3.18%G +0.000%12.4%2026-05-08 16:24
Neds1.36I 73.53%NM 65.33%EV -8.05%E -5.92%K -22.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.16%EV -20.16%E -3.66%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.51%EV -14.19%E -2.96%K -3.74%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-08 16:09
Ladbrokes (AU)1.36I 73.53%NM 65.33%EV -8.05%E -5.92%K -22.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.16%EV -20.16%E -3.66%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.51%EV -14.19%E -2.96%K -3.74%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-08 16:09
Coral1.36I 73.53%NM 65.33%EV -8.05%E -5.92%K -22.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.16%EV -20.16%E -3.66%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.51%EV -14.19%E -2.96%K -3.74%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-08 16:15
Ladbrokes (UK)1.36I 73.53%NM 65.33%EV -8.05%E -5.92%K -22.37%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.16%EV -20.16%E -3.66%K -4.48%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.51%EV -14.19%E -2.96%K -3.74%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-08 16:09
Winamax (FR)1.34I 74.63%NM 65.72%EV -9.41%E -7.02%K -27.67%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.31%EV -21.61%E -4.00%K -4.91%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.97%EV -12.41%E -2.53%K -3.18%G +0.000%13.6%2026-05-08 16:24
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.41I 70.92%NM 70.63%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.77%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.60%0.4%2026-05-08 16:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.41I 70.92%NM 70.63%7.80I 12.82%NM 12.77%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.60%0.4%2026-05-08 16:19
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.41I 70.92%NM 70.40%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.06%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%0.7%2026-05-08 16:25
Matchbook1.41I 70.92%NM 70.40%7.60I 13.16%NM 13.06%6.00I 16.67%NM 16.54%0.7%2026-05-08 16:24
Smarkets1.41I 70.92%NM 69.95%7.40I 13.51%NM 13.33%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.72%1.4%2026-05-08 16:25
Kalshi1.43I 69.93%NM 68.61%7.14I 14.01%NM 13.74%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.65%1.9%2026-05-08 16:25