La escuela de los momios

Karlsruher SC v Dynamo Dresden

Inicio: 2026-03-08 12:30 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Karlsruher SC (Local)

Predicción 32.46%3.08momio equitativo
EV +0.612%
Ventaja +0.197%
Kelly +0.291%
Crecimiento +0.002%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.10

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.00%32.63%32.62%36.86%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.532.802.753.1039.53%35.72%36.36%32.26%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Dynamo Dresden (Visitante)

Predicción 40.55%2.47momio equitativo
EV +5.43%
Ventaja +2.09%
Kelly +3.39%
Crecimiento +0.184%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
35.87%40.25%40.53%42.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.002.302.302.6050.00%43.49%43.48%38.46%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.99%3.70momio equitativo
EV -2.82%
Ventaja -0.783%
Kelly -1.08%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.81%27.12%26.86%28.58%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.403.443.6033.33%29.39%29.11%27.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼EmpateMargenActualizado
Marathon Bet2.53I 39.53%NM 36.86%EV -17.89%E -7.07%K -11.69%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.87%EV +5.43%E +2.09%K +3.39%G +0.184%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.27%EV -7.68%E -2.25%K -3.17%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-05 01:00
Svenska Spel2.70I 37.04%NM 34.69%EV -12.37%E -4.58%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.55%EV -1.46%E -0.602%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -5.52%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-08 11:40
ATG (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.69%EV -12.37%E -4.58%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.55%EV -1.46%E -0.602%K -1.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -5.52%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-08 11:40
Unibet2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -13.99%E -5.28%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.59%EV -2.68%E -1.12%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -5.52%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-08 08:24
Unibet (SE)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -13.99%E -5.28%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.59%EV -2.68%E -1.12%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -5.52%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-08 08:25
Casumo2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -13.99%E -5.28%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.59%EV -2.68%E -1.12%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -5.52%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-08 08:24
Grosvenor2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -13.99%E -5.28%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.59%EV -2.68%E -1.12%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -5.52%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-08 08:25
TABtouch2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -13.99%E -5.28%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.59%EV -2.68%E -1.12%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -5.52%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-08 08:24
Unibet (NL)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -13.99%E -5.28%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.59%EV -2.68%E -1.12%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -5.52%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-08 08:25
betPARX2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -13.99%E -5.28%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.59%EV -2.68%E -1.12%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -5.52%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-08 08:24
888sport2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -10.75%E -3.91%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -2.68%E -1.12%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -12.27%E -3.77%K -5.45%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-08 12:24
William Hill2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -10.75%E -3.91%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.30%EV -2.68%E -1.12%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.28%EV -12.27%E -3.77%K -5.45%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-08 12:24
LeoVegas (SE)2.65I 37.74%NM 34.70%EV -13.99%E -5.28%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.64%EV -3.49%E -1.47%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.66%EV -6.87%E -1.99%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-08 11:40
BetRivers2.65I 37.74%NM 34.70%EV -13.99%E -5.28%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.64%EV -3.49%E -1.47%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.66%EV -6.87%E -1.99%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-08 11:39
LeoVegas2.63I 38.02%NM 34.88%EV -14.64%E -5.57%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.54%EV -3.49%E -1.47%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -6.87%E -1.99%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-08 11:39
LowVig.ag3.08I 32.47%NM 31.45%EV -0.037%E -0.012%K -0.018%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.87%EV -3.90%E -1.64%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.68%EV -5.52%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-08 12:24
BetOnline.ag3.08I 32.47%NM 31.45%EV -0.037%E -0.012%K -0.018%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.87%EV -3.90%E -1.64%K -2.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.68%EV -5.52%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-08 12:24
Pinnacle3.08I 32.47%NM 31.44%EV -0.037%E -0.012%K -0.018%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.21%EV -4.71%E -2.00%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.35%EV -4.44%E -1.25%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.3%2026-03-08 12:14
Coolbet2.90I 34.48%NM 32.90%EV -5.88%E -2.03%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.60%EV -4.71%E -2.00%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.50%EV -2.82%E -0.783%K -1.08%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-08 12:10
Fanatics2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -5.88%E -2.03%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.98%EV -4.71%E -2.00%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -8.22%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-08 11:40
Bovada2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -7.50%E -2.63%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -4.71%E -2.00%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -8.22%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-08 12:23
Codere (IT)2.85I 35.09%NM 32.98%EV -7.50%E -2.63%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.17%EV -5.11%E -2.19%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -5.52%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-08 11:20
DraftKings3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -2.63%E -0.878%K -1.32%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.10%EV -6.74%E -2.93%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.40%EV -6.87%E -1.99%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-08 12:00
Tipico (DE)3.10I 32.26%NM 30.42%EV +0.612%E +0.197%K +0.291%G +0.002%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.00%EV -6.74%E -2.93%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -10.92%E -3.31%K -4.75%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-08 11:49
FanDuel3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -2.63%E -0.878%K -1.32%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -6.74%E -2.93%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -8.22%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-08 11:49
BetMGM2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -5.88%E -2.03%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -6.74%E -2.93%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -5.52%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-08 11:30
Unibet (UK)2.85I 35.09%NM 32.75%EV -7.50%E -2.63%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.58%EV -6.74%E -2.93%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -5.52%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-08 11:19
theScore Bet2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -7.50%E -2.63%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.43%EV -6.74%E -2.93%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.95%EV -6.87%E -1.99%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-08 11:20
Betr (AU)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -10.75%E -3.91%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -6.74%E -2.93%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -2.82%E -0.783%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-08 12:20
PointsBet (AU)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -10.75%E -3.91%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.40%EV -6.74%E -2.93%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -2.82%E -0.783%K -1.08%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-08 12:20
NordicBet2.82I 35.46%NM 32.86%EV -8.48%E -3.01%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.29%EV -6.74%E -2.93%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -6.87%E -1.99%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-08 11:20
Betsson2.82I 35.46%NM 32.86%EV -8.48%E -3.01%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.29%EV -6.74%E -2.93%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.86%EV -6.87%E -1.99%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-08 11:19
PlayUp2.85I 35.09%NM 32.50%EV -7.50%E -2.63%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.27%EV -6.74%E -2.93%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -8.22%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-08 12:24
888sport (SE)2.88I 34.72%NM 32.00%EV -6.53%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.07%EV -6.74%E -2.93%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -10.92%E -3.31%K -4.75%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-08 12:19
Mr Green (SE)2.88I 34.72%NM 32.00%EV -6.53%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.07%EV -6.74%E -2.93%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -10.92%E -3.31%K -4.75%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-08 12:19
Virgin Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 34.84%EV -17.24%E -6.76%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.63%EV -6.74%E -2.93%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.52%EV -9.57%E -2.86%K -4.07%G +0.000%12.5%2026-03-08 08:24
LiveScore Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 34.84%EV -17.24%E -6.76%K -11.12%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.63%EV -6.74%E -2.93%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.52%EV -9.57%E -2.86%K -4.07%G +0.000%12.5%2026-03-08 08:24
1xBet3.06I 32.68%NM 31.05%EV -0.686%E -0.224%K -0.333%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 41.49%EV -7.14%E -3.12%K -5.54%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.46%EV -6.60%E -1.91%K -2.68%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-08 12:24
Suprabets3.01I 33.22%NM 31.03%EV -2.31%E -0.767%K -1.15%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.51%EV -8.76%E -3.89%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -8.22%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-08 12:20
Everygame3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -2.63%E -0.878%K -1.32%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -8.76%E -3.89%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.22%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-08 12:19
Bet Victor2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -5.88%E -2.03%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.34%EV -8.76%E -3.89%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.58%EV -5.52%E -1.58%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-08 12:24
Betway3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -2.63%E -0.878%K -1.32%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -8.76%E -3.89%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -10.92%E -3.31%K -4.75%G +0.000%8.1%2026-03-08 12:19
SportsBet2.90I 34.48%NM 31.83%EV -5.88%E -2.03%K -3.09%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.02%EV -8.76%E -3.89%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -8.22%E -2.42%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-08 12:19
Winamax (DE)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.37%EV -10.75%E -3.91%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.78%EV -8.76%E -3.89%K -7.01%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -4.17%E -1.17%K -1.63%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-08 11:19
Paddy Power2.88I 34.72%NM 31.43%EV -6.53%E -2.27%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.14%EV -10.79%E -4.90%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.43%EV -10.92%E -3.31%K -4.75%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-08 12:19
Betclic (FR)2.73I 36.63%NM 32.72%EV -11.40%E -4.17%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.61%EV -10.79%E -4.90%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.67%EV -9.57%E -2.86%K -4.07%G +0.000%11.9%2026-03-08 12:03
Neds2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -10.75%E -3.91%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -10.79%E -4.90%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -10.92%E -3.31%K -4.75%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-08 11:14
Coral2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -10.75%E -3.91%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -10.79%E -4.90%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -10.92%E -3.31%K -4.75%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-08 11:14
Ladbrokes (AU)2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -10.75%E -3.91%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -10.79%E -4.90%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -10.92%E -3.31%K -4.75%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-08 11:15
Ladbrokes (UK)2.75I 36.36%NM 32.43%EV -10.75%E -3.91%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.54%EV -10.79%E -4.90%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.03%EV -10.92%E -3.31%K -4.75%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-08 11:15
Sky Bet2.80I 35.71%NM 31.77%EV -9.12%E -3.26%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.43%EV -10.79%E -4.90%K -8.99%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.80%EV -13.62%E -4.26%K -6.19%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-08 11:49
Winamax (FR)2.65I 37.74%NM 33.07%EV -13.99%E -5.28%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.76%EV -12.82%E -5.96%K -11.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.16%EV -9.57%E -2.86%K -4.07%G +0.000%14.1%2026-03-08 11:19
Parions Sport (FR)2.70I 37.04%NM 32.22%EV -12.37%E -4.58%K -7.28%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.42%EV -14.85%E -7.07%K -13.50%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.36%EV -10.92%E -3.31%K -4.75%G +0.000%15.0%2026-03-08 12:04
NetBet (FR)2.75I 36.36%NM 31.42%EV -10.75%E -3.91%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 41.15%EV -14.85%E -7.07%K -13.50%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.43%EV -14.97%E -4.75%K -6.96%G +0.000%15.7%2026-03-08 12:19
PMU (FR)2.65I 37.74%NM 31.63%EV -13.99%E -5.28%K -8.48%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 40.89%EV -16.87%E -8.23%K -16.07%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 27.48%EV -17.67%E -5.79%K -8.62%G +0.000%19.3%2026-03-08 12:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.80I 35.71%NM 30.00%EV -9.12%E -3.26%K -5.07%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.00%EV -18.90%E -9.45%K -18.90%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.00%EV -19.02%E -6.34%K -9.51%G +0.000%19.0%2026-03-08 12:19
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.60%2.42I 41.32%NM 41.13%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.27%0.5%2026-03-08 12:24
Matchbook3.10I 32.26%NM 32.05%2.44I 40.98%NM 40.72%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.22%0.6%2026-03-08 12:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.49%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.33%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18%0.8%2026-03-08 12:19
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.15I 31.75%NM 31.49%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.33%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.18%0.8%2026-03-08 12:20
Kalshi3.12I 32.05%NM 31.40%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.16%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.44%2.1%2026-03-08 12:15
Smarkets3.05I 32.79%NM 31.96%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.96%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.08%2.6%2026-03-08 12:24