Language:English
Hertha Berlin v Holstein Kiel
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Hertha Berlin (Local)
Prediction 49.46%2.02fair odd
EV -3.56%
Edge -1.82%
Kelly -3.74%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.44%49.53%49.47%51.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.691.871.901.9559.17%53.43%52.77%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Holstein Kiel (Visit)
Prediction 26.13%3.83fair odd
EV -2.54%
Edge -0.682%
Kelly -0.932%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.73
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.49%25.96%26.18%27.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.493.503.7331.25%28.63%28.57%26.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.41%4.10fair odd
EV -2.34%
Edge -0.585%
Kelly -0.780%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.81%24.51%24.35%26.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.703.734.0031.25%27.03%26.85%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hertha Berlin (Local): 49.46%; Holstein Kiel (Visit): 26.13%; Draw: 24.41%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.10. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.00, with an expected value of -2.34%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.91%EV -3.56%E -1.82%K -3.74%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.25%EV -8.55%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -2.34%E -0.585%K -0.780%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-19 12:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -5.54%E -2.90%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -11.17%E -3.28%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -7.22%E -1.90%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-19 12:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -5.54%E -2.90%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -8.55%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -12.11%E -3.36%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-20 12:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -5.54%E -2.90%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -8.55%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -12.11%E -3.36%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-20 12:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -5.54%E -2.90%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -8.55%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -12.11%E -3.36%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-20 12:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.16%EV -5.54%E -2.90%K -6.08%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -8.55%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -12.11%E -3.36%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-20 12:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.26%EV -6.03%E -3.17%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -8.55%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.00%EV -4.78%E -1.23%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-19 12:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.57%EV -6.03%E -3.17%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -11.17%E -3.28%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV -7.22%E -1.90%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-20 09:09 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.41%EV -6.03%E -3.17%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.06%EV -11.17%E -3.28%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.53%EV -8.45%E -2.25%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-19 12:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.47%EV -6.52%E -3.45%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -3.33%E -0.899%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -9.67%E -2.61%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-20 08:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.47%EV -6.52%E -3.45%K -7.33%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -3.33%E -0.899%K -1.23%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -9.67%E -2.61%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-20 08:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.69%EV -7.51%E -4.02%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.17%EV -7.25%E -2.04%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.14%EV -6.00%E -1.56%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-19 20:25 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.66%EV -7.51%E -4.02%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.53%EV -8.55%E -2.44%K -3.42%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -4.78%E -1.23%K -1.65%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-19 12:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.24%EV -8.50%E -4.60%K -10.00%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.79%EV -11.17%E -3.28%K -4.65%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -7.22%E -1.90%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-20 15:19 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -9.49%E -5.19%K -11.44%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -5.94%E -1.65%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -8.45%E -2.25%K -3.07%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-04-19 12:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 48.15%EV -10.98%E -6.10%K -13.72%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.09%EV -16.39%E -5.12%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.76%EV -14.55%E -4.16%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 15.4% | 2026-04-20 09:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 47.44%EV -10.98%E -6.10%K -13.72%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 25.88%EV -13.78%E -4.18%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 26.68%EV -21.87%E -6.84%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 17.1% | 2026-04-20 09:09 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 51.84%EV -16.42%E -9.71%K -23.79%G +0.000% | 3.73I 26.81%NM 23.49%EV -2.54%E -0.682%K -0.932%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.68%EV -13.33%E -3.75%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-04-19 11:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99% | 191.3% | 2026-04-20 05:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99% | 191.3% | 2026-04-20 05:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01% | 1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99% | 191.3% | 2026-04-20 05:30 |