Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hertha Berlin v Greuther Fürth

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 11:30 UTC

Final: Hertha Berlin 2–1 Greuther Fürth

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hertha Berlin (Local)

Prediction 61.52%1.63fair odd
EV -4.04%
Edge -2.59%
Kelly -7.21%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.57%61.48%61.59%62.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.391.511.501.5671.94%66.23%66.67%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Greuther Fürth (Visit)

Prediction 18.19%5.50fair odd
EV +1.50%
Edge +0.269%
Kelly +0.328%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 5.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
17.30%18.21%18.15%19.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.604.985.005.5821.74%20.07%20.00%17.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.29%4.93fair odd
EV -0.561%
Edge -0.114%
Kelly -0.144%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.26%20.31%20.26%21.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.104.484.504.9024.39%22.34%22.22%20.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hertha Berlin (Local): 61.52%; Greuther Fürth (Visit): 18.19%; Draw: 20.29%. For Greuther Fürth (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.50. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.58, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.50%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 62.29%EV -4.65%E -3.00%K -8.46%G +0.000%5.58I 17.92%NM 17.30%EV +1.50%E +0.269%K +0.328%G +0.005%4.73I 21.14%NM 20.41%EV -4.01%E -0.848%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.6%2026-10-11 11:15
Fanatics🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.49%EV -5.88%E -3.84%K -11.10%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.38%EV +0.048%E +0.009%K +0.011%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.13%EV -3.60%E -0.759%K -0.961%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-11 11:09
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.93%EV -7.73%E -5.15%K -15.45%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.81%EV -3.59%E -0.677%K -0.835%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.26%EV -0.561%E -0.114%K -0.144%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-11 11:14
SportsBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.99%EV -7.11%E -4.71%K -13.94%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.66%EV -3.59%E -0.677%K -0.835%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.35%EV -6.65%E -1.45%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-11 11:04
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.73%EV -8.96%E -6.05%K -18.66%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.52%EV -3.59%E -0.677%K -0.835%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.75%EV -4.62%E -0.983%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-11 11:03
Coolbet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.67%EV -4.65%E -3.00%K -8.46%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.21%EV -4.50%E -0.857%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.12%EV -3.60%E -0.759%K -0.961%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-11 10:54
BetOnline.ag🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.40%EV -4.65%E -3.00%K -8.46%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.13%EV -4.50%E -0.857%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.47%EV -5.63%E -1.21%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-11 10:39
LowVig.ag🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 61.40%EV -4.65%E -3.00%K -8.46%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.13%EV -4.50%E -0.857%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.47%EV -5.63%E -1.21%K -1.54%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-11 10:39
DraftKings🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.42%EV -5.27%E -3.42%K -9.75%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.02%EV -4.50%E -0.857%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.56%EV -6.65%E -1.45%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-11 11:04
Unibet (UK)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.73%EV -6.50%E -4.27%K -12.49%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.87%EV -4.50%E -0.857%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -6.65%E -1.45%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-11 11:14
betano_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.04%EV -7.73%E -5.15%K -15.45%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -4.50%E -0.857%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -6.65%E -1.45%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-11 11:14
Bet Victor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.04%EV -7.73%E -5.15%K -15.45%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.73%EV -4.50%E -0.857%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -6.65%E -1.45%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-11 11:13
PlayUp🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.01%EV -6.50%E -4.27%K -12.49%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.67%EV -4.50%E -0.857%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.32%EV -11.72%E -2.69%K -3.50%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-11 11:14
Codere (IT)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.74%EV -5.88%E -3.84%K -11.10%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.17%EV -5.41%E -1.04%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.10%EV -4.62%E -0.983%K -1.25%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-11 11:14
NordicBet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.16%EV -7.73%E -5.15%K -15.45%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.99%EV -7.23%E -1.42%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.85%EV -10.71%E -2.43%K -3.15%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-11 11:15
Betsson🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.16%EV -7.73%E -5.15%K -15.45%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.99%EV -7.23%E -1.42%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.85%EV -10.71%E -2.43%K -3.15%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-11 11:14
BetMGM🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.55%EV -5.88%E -3.84%K -11.10%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -9.05%E -1.81%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.62%EV -2.59%E -0.540%K -0.682%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-11 10:54
Grosvenor🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.29%EV -4.04%E -2.59%K -7.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -9.05%E -1.81%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -8.68%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-11 11:04
Unibet (NL)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.29%EV -4.04%E -2.59%K -7.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -9.05%E -1.81%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -8.68%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-11 11:05
Unibet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.29%EV -4.04%E -2.59%K -7.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -9.05%E -1.81%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -8.68%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-11 11:04
Unibet (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.29%EV -4.04%E -2.59%K -7.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -9.05%E -1.81%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -8.68%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-11 11:04
Casumo🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.29%EV -4.04%E -2.59%K -7.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -9.05%E -1.81%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -8.68%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-11 11:04
betPARX🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.29%EV -4.04%E -2.59%K -7.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -9.05%E -1.81%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -8.68%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-11 11:04
ATG (SE)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.29%EV -4.04%E -2.59%K -7.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -9.05%E -1.81%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -8.68%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-11 11:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.29%EV -4.04%E -2.59%K -7.21%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -9.05%E -1.81%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -8.68%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-11 11:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.75%EV -5.88%E -3.84%K -11.10%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.59%EV -9.05%E -1.81%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.66%EV -8.68%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-11 10:54
theScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.50%EV -7.73%E -5.15%K -15.45%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.45%EV -9.05%E -1.81%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.05%EV -6.65%E -1.45%K -1.85%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-11 11:14
Bovada🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 61.07%EV -7.11%E -4.71%K -13.94%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.44%EV -9.05%E -1.81%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -8.68%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-11 11:13
betfred_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.22%EV -7.73%E -5.15%K -15.45%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.37%EV -9.05%E -1.81%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.41%EV -8.68%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-11 10:54
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -7.73%E -5.15%K -15.45%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -9.05%E -1.81%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -14.77%E -3.52%K -4.61%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-11 11:09
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -7.73%E -5.15%K -15.45%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -9.05%E -1.81%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -14.77%E -3.52%K -4.61%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-11 11:09
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -7.73%E -5.15%K -15.45%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -9.05%E -1.81%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -14.77%E -3.52%K -4.61%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-11 11:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.34%EV -7.73%E -5.15%K -15.45%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.10%EV -9.05%E -1.81%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.55%EV -14.77%E -3.52%K -4.61%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-11 11:10
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 61.42%EV -9.57%E -6.51%K -20.37%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.06%EV -9.05%E -1.81%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.52%EV -10.71%E -2.43%K -3.15%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-11 11:19
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 61.91%EV -11.42%E -7.93%K -25.95%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.83%EV -9.05%E -1.81%K -2.26%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.26%EV -10.71%E -2.43%K -3.15%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-11 10:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 61.20%EV -6.50%E -4.27%K -12.49%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 18.79%EV -9.96%E -2.01%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.01%EV -5.63%E -1.21%K -1.54%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-11 08:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.78%EV -7.73%E -5.15%K -15.45%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.91%EV -10.87%E -2.22%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.31%EV -2.59%E -0.540%K -0.682%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-11 11:15
Betr (AU)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.95%EV -6.50%E -4.27%K -12.49%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.91%EV -10.87%E -2.22%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -6.65%E -1.45%K -1.85%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-11 10:54
LeoVegas🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.00%EV -7.73%E -5.15%K -15.45%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.67%EV -10.87%E -2.22%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.33%EV -8.68%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-11 11:24
Unibet (FR)🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 62.66%EV -14.49%E -10.43%K -37.16%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.77%EV -10.87%E -2.22%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 19.57%EV -9.69%E -2.18%K -2.81%G +0.000%14.8%2026-10-11 11:15
1xBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.70%EV -5.27%E -3.42%K -9.75%G +0.000%4.87I 20.53%NM 19.20%EV -11.41%E -2.34%K -2.95%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.10%EV -5.63%E -1.21%K -1.54%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-11 04:59
Sky Bet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.87%EV -11.42%E -7.93%K -25.95%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.26%EV -12.69%E -2.64%K -3.34%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 20.87%EV -14.77%E -3.52%K -4.61%G +0.000%14.1%2026-10-11 11:08
TABtouch🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 59.79%EV -7.11%E -4.71%K -13.94%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.21%EV -14.50%E -3.09%K -3.92%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.00%EV -12.74%E -2.96%K -3.86%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-11 11:05
BetRivers🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 59.65%EV -7.11%E -4.71%K -13.94%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.16%EV -14.50%E -3.09%K -3.92%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.19%EV -13.75%E -3.24%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-11 11:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 59.65%EV -7.11%E -4.71%K -13.94%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.16%EV -14.50%E -3.09%K -3.92%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.19%EV -13.75%E -3.24%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-11 11:04
Virgin Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.81%EV -7.73%E -5.15%K -15.45%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.09%EV -14.50%E -3.09%K -3.92%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.11%EV -13.75%E -3.24%K -4.23%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-11 11:04
Betclic (FR)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 60.78%EV -11.42%E -7.93%K -25.95%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.62%EV -14.50%E -3.09%K -3.92%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.59%EV -13.75%E -3.24%K -4.23%G +0.000%14.3%2026-10-11 11:13
NetBet (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 60.49%EV -12.03%E -8.41%K -27.98%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.41%EV -14.50%E -3.09%K -3.92%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.10%EV -16.80%E -4.10%K -5.42%G +0.000%15.6%2026-10-11 11:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.99%EV -7.73%E -5.15%K -15.45%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.56%EV -16.32%E -3.55%K -4.53%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -10.71%E -2.43%K -3.15%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-11 10:55
Neds🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.99%EV -7.73%E -5.15%K -15.45%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.56%EV -16.32%E -3.55%K -4.53%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -10.71%E -2.43%K -3.15%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-11 10:54
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.99%EV -7.73%E -5.15%K -15.45%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.56%EV -16.32%E -3.55%K -4.53%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -10.71%E -2.43%K -3.15%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-11 10:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 59.99%EV -7.73%E -5.15%K -15.45%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.56%EV -16.32%E -3.55%K -4.53%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.45%EV -10.71%E -2.43%K -3.15%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-11 10:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.47I 68.03%NM 60.74%EV -9.57%E -6.51%K -20.37%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.41%EV -16.32%E -3.55%K -4.53%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.84%EV -8.68%E -1.93%K -2.48%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-11 11:14
LiveScore Bet🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 59.57%EV -8.34%E -5.60%K -17.02%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.30%EV -16.32%E -3.55%K -4.53%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.13%EV -14.77%E -3.52%K -4.61%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-11 11:05
PMU (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 59.57%EV -8.34%E -5.60%K -17.02%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.30%EV -16.32%E -3.55%K -4.53%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.13%EV -14.77%E -3.52%K -4.61%G +0.000%12.7%2026-10-11 11:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.96%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.15%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.89%0.5%2026-10-11 11:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.96%5.80I 17.24%NM 17.15%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.89%0.5%2026-10-11 11:09
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.77%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.40%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.83%0.8%2026-10-11 11:25
Matchbook◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.77%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.40%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.83%0.8%2026-10-11 11:25
Kalshi◎1.59I 62.89%NM 62.35%5.56I 17.99%NM 17.83%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.83%0.9%2026-10-11 11:20
Smarkets◎1.58I 63.29%NM 62.51%5.70I 17.54%NM 17.33%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.16%1.2%2026-10-11 11:25