The School of Odds
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Hertha Berlin v Arminia Bielefeld

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 11:01 UTC

Final: Hertha Berlin 1–0 Arminia Bielefeld

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hertha Berlin (Local)

Prediction 51.76%1.93fair odd
EV -2.70%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -3.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.65%51.84%51.73%54.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.771.791.8860.61%56.46%56.02%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Arminia Bielefeld (Visit)

Prediction 23.92%4.18fair odd
EV +1.68%
Edge +0.395%
Kelly +0.517%
Growth +0.009%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.06%23.83%23.86%25.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.913.904.2528.57%25.55%25.64%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.32%4.11fair odd
EV -1.51%
Edge -0.374%
Kelly -0.496%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.46%24.33%24.41%25.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.783.794.0528.99%26.48%26.39%24.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hertha Berlin (Local): 51.76%; Arminia Bielefeld (Visit): 23.92%; Draw: 24.32%. For Arminia Bielefeld (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.18. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.68%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.06%EV -9.94%E -5.71%K -13.44%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV +1.68%E +0.395%K +0.517%G +0.009%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81%EV -3.94%E -0.999%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 10:20
Casumo🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.06%EV -9.94%E -5.71%K -13.44%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV +1.68%E +0.395%K +0.517%G +0.009%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81%EV -3.94%E -0.999%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 10:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.06%EV -9.94%E -5.71%K -13.44%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV +1.68%E +0.395%K +0.517%G +0.009%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81%EV -3.94%E -0.999%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 10:20
Grosvenor🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.06%EV -9.94%E -5.71%K -13.44%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV +1.68%E +0.395%K +0.517%G +0.009%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81%EV -3.94%E -0.999%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 10:20
Unibet (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.06%EV -9.94%E -5.71%K -13.44%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV +1.68%E +0.395%K +0.517%G +0.009%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81%EV -3.94%E -0.999%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 10:20
Svenska Spel🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.06%EV -9.94%E -5.71%K -13.44%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV +1.68%E +0.395%K +0.517%G +0.009%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81%EV -3.94%E -0.999%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 10:20
betPARX🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.06%EV -9.94%E -5.71%K -13.44%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV +1.68%E +0.395%K +0.517%G +0.009%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81%EV -3.94%E -0.999%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 10:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.06%EV -9.94%E -5.71%K -13.44%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.13%EV +1.68%E +0.395%K +0.517%G +0.009%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.81%EV -3.94%E -0.999%K -1.34%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-24 10:20
Pinnacle🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.27%EV -4.25%E -2.30%K -5.00%G +0.000%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.19%EV -0.234%E -0.056%K -0.074%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.54%EV -4.19%E -1.06%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-24 10:46
LowVig.ag🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -7.87%E -4.42%K -10.09%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.96%EV -0.712%E -0.172%K -0.226%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.52%EV -1.51%E -0.374%K -0.496%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-22 23:43
BetOnline.ag🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -7.87%E -4.42%K -10.09%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.96%EV -0.712%E -0.172%K -0.226%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.52%EV -1.51%E -0.374%K -0.496%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-22 23:44
Tipico (DE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.36%EV -8.39%E -4.74%K -10.90%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -1.91%E -0.466%K -0.616%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -2.73%E -0.682%K -0.910%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-24 10:46
TABtouch🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.83%EV -13.05%E -7.77%K -19.19%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.06%EV -1.91%E -0.466%K -0.616%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.12%EV -8.81%E -2.35%K -3.20%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-24 10:20
Fanatics🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.03%EV -3.21%E -1.72%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.86%EV -4.30%E -1.08%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.11%EV -7.59%E -2.00%K -2.71%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-24 10:35
Coolbet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.84%E -3.80%K -8.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -4.30%E -1.08%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -2.73%E -0.682%K -0.910%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-24 06:55
FanDuel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.73%EV -8.39%E -4.74%K -10.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -4.30%E -1.08%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.93%EV -5.16%E -1.32%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-24 10:45
SportsBet🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 52.12%EV -7.35%E -4.11%K -9.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -4.30%E -1.08%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -7.59%E -2.00%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-24 10:51
BetRivers🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.53%EV -13.05%E -7.77%K -19.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -4.30%E -1.08%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.98%EV -8.81%E -2.35%K -3.20%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-24 10:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.53%EV -13.05%E -7.77%K -19.19%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.48%EV -4.30%E -1.08%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.98%EV -8.81%E -2.35%K -3.20%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-24 10:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.51%EV -13.56%E -8.12%K -20.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.34%EV -4.30%E -1.08%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.15%EV -10.02%E -2.71%K -3.71%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-24 10:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 53.81%EV -14.60%E -8.85%K -22.46%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -4.30%E -1.08%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.00%EV -10.02%E -2.71%K -3.71%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-24 10:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 53.81%EV -14.60%E -8.85%K -22.46%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -4.30%E -1.08%K -1.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.00%EV -10.02%E -2.71%K -3.71%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-24 10:20
picklebet_au🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.25%E -2.30%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.34%EV -6.69%E -1.72%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.34%EV -5.16%E -1.32%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 10:35
BetMGM🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.72%EV -3.21%E -1.72%K -3.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.32%EV -6.69%E -1.72%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.96%EV -7.59%E -2.00%K -2.71%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-24 10:35
Codere (IT)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 51.29%EV -4.77%E -2.59%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -6.69%E -1.72%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -6.38%E -1.66%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-24 10:35
Unibet (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.26%EV -5.28%E -2.89%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -6.69%E -1.72%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -7.59%E -2.00%K -2.71%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 10:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.42%EV -8.39%E -4.74%K -10.90%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -6.69%E -1.72%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -5.16%E -1.32%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-24 10:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -9.42%E -5.39%K -12.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -6.69%E -1.72%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.65%EV -5.16%E -1.32%K -1.78%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-24 10:35
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.98%EV -6.84%E -3.80%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -6.69%E -1.72%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -12.46%E -3.46%K -4.79%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-24 07:50
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.98%EV -6.84%E -3.80%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -6.69%E -1.72%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -12.46%E -3.46%K -4.79%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-24 07:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.98%EV -6.84%E -3.80%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -6.69%E -1.72%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -12.46%E -3.46%K -4.79%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-24 07:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.98%EV -6.84%E -3.80%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.53%EV -6.69%E -1.72%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -12.46%E -3.46%K -4.79%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-24 07:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.04%EV -9.42%E -5.39%K -12.57%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.35%EV -6.69%E -1.72%K -2.31%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -10.02%E -2.71%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-24 10:46
PlayUp🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -6.84%E -3.80%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.01%EV -7.89%E -2.05%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -8.81%E -2.35%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-24 10:46
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.83%EV -6.84%E -3.80%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -9.09%E -2.39%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.62%EV -3.94%E -0.999%K -1.34%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-24 11:00
betano_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.67%EV -6.84%E -3.80%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -9.09%E -2.39%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -5.16%E -1.32%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-24 10:58
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.67%EV -6.84%E -3.80%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.48%EV -9.09%E -2.39%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.85%EV -5.16%E -1.32%K -1.78%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-24 11:00
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -6.84%E -3.80%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -9.09%E -2.39%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -7.59%E -2.00%K -2.71%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-24 10:35
Bovada🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -6.84%E -3.80%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.17%EV -9.09%E -2.39%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.82%EV -10.02%E -2.71%K -3.71%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-24 10:59
Betsson🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.84%EV -6.84%E -3.80%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.08%EV -9.09%E -2.39%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.07%EV -11.24%E -3.08%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-24 10:35
NordicBet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.84%EV -6.84%E -3.80%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.08%EV -9.09%E -2.39%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.07%EV -11.24%E -3.08%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-24 10:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.13%EV -9.94%E -5.71%K -13.44%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.87%EV -9.09%E -2.39%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.00%EV -8.08%E -2.14%K -2.91%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-24 11:00
Paddy Power🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.72%EV -9.42%E -5.39%K -12.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.82%EV -9.09%E -2.39%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -10.02%E -2.71%K -3.71%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-24 10:46
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.01%EV -9.42%E -5.39%K -12.57%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -9.09%E -2.39%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -14.89%E -4.25%K -5.96%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-24 10:30
1xBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.49%EV -2.70%E -1.43%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.05%EV -9.33%E -2.46%K -3.34%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.46%EV -5.65%E -1.46%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-24 10:59
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.02%EV -6.84%E -3.80%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -10.28%E -2.74%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -8.81%E -2.35%K -3.20%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-24 07:04
LeoVegas🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.85%EV -6.84%E -3.80%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.41%EV -10.28%E -2.74%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -10.02%E -2.71%K -3.71%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-24 10:50
NetBet (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 51.79%EV -11.49%E -6.72%K -16.19%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.61%EV -10.28%E -2.74%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.60%EV -12.46%E -3.46%K -4.79%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-24 10:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.49%EV -6.84%E -3.80%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -11.48%E -3.10%K -4.25%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.46%EV -3.94%E -0.999%K -1.34%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-24 11:00
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -6.84%E -3.80%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -13.87%E -3.85%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -14.89%E -4.25%K -5.96%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-24 10:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -6.84%E -3.80%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -13.87%E -3.85%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -14.89%E -4.25%K -5.96%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-24 10:35
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -6.84%E -3.80%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -13.87%E -3.85%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -14.89%E -4.25%K -5.96%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-24 10:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -6.84%E -3.80%K -8.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -13.87%E -3.85%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -14.89%E -4.25%K -5.96%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-24 10:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 51.00%EV -10.98%E -6.38%K -15.25%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 24.50%EV -14.35%E -4.01%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 24.50%EV -12.94%E -3.62%K -5.02%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-24 10:33
Winamax (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 50.50%EV -9.94%E -5.71%K -13.44%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.75%EV -15.07%E -4.24%K -5.91%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.75%EV -13.67%E -3.85%K -5.36%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-24 11:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 50.54%EV -12.01%E -7.07%K -17.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.55%EV -16.26%E -4.65%K -6.51%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.91%EV -16.10%E -4.67%K -6.57%G +0.000%16.4%2026-10-24 11:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.88I 53.19%NM 52.75%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.06%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.19%0.8%2026-10-24 10:46
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.87I 53.48%NM 52.88%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.00%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.12%1.1%2026-10-24 11:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.43%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.46%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.11%1.2%2026-10-24 11:00
Matchbook◎1.85I 54.05%NM 53.43%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.46%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.11%1.2%2026-10-24 11:00
Kalshi◎1.85I 54.05%NM 52.97%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.53%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50%2.0%2026-10-24 10:46
Smarkets◎1.82I 54.95%NM 53.24%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.53%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.22%3.2%2026-10-24 11:00

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