The School of Odds
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Fortuna Düsseldorf v Dynamo Dresden

Kickoff: 2026-04-26 11:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Fortuna Düsseldorf (Local)

Prediction 44.90%2.23fair odd
EV -4.81%
Edge -2.27%
Kelly -4.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.74%44.86%44.80%45.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.052.052.1251.28%48.83%48.78%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dynamo Dresden (Visit)

Prediction 29.24%3.42fair odd
EV -4.99%
Edge -1.53%
Kelly -2.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.24%29.26%29.22%30.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.133.103.2534.72%31.93%32.26%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.86%3.87fair odd
EV -0.428%
Edge -0.111%
Kelly -0.150%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.76%25.88%25.97%27.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.513.503.8532.26%28.49%28.57%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Fortuna Düsseldorf (Local): 44.90%; Dynamo Dresden (Visit): 29.24%; Draw: 25.86%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.87. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.85, with an expected value of -0.428%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.97%EV -4.81%E -2.27%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.27%EV -7.91%E -2.51%K -3.68%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.76%EV -0.428%E -0.111%K -0.150%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-20 08:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -5.71%E -2.72%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -9.37%E -3.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -6.89%E -1.91%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-20 08:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -5.71%E -2.72%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -9.37%E -3.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -6.89%E -1.91%K -2.65%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-20 11:30
SportsBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.14%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -9.37%E -3.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -4.31%E -1.16%K -1.60%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-20 08:54
FanDuel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.14%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -9.37%E -3.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -4.31%E -1.16%K -1.60%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-20 08:54
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.12%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.46%EV -4.99%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -9.48%E -2.71%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-20 08:45
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.92%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -6.45%E -2.01%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -9.48%E -2.71%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-20 08:45
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -9.37%E -3.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -6.89%E -1.91%K -2.65%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-20 11:30
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -4.99%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -12.07%E -3.55%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-18 15:00
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -4.99%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -12.07%E -3.55%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-18 15:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -4.99%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -12.07%E -3.55%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-18 15:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -7.95%E -3.88%K -7.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -4.99%E -1.53%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -12.07%E -3.55%K -5.03%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-18 15:00
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.44%EV -10.20%E -5.10%K -10.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.32%EV -9.37%E -3.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.24%EV -6.89%E -1.91%K -2.65%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-20 18:04
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 42.74%EV -10.20%E -5.10%K -10.20%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.68%EV -15.80%E -5.49%K -8.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.58%EV -19.83%E -6.40%K -9.44%G +0.000%17.0%2026-04-20 08:55
Sky Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 44.18%EV -12.44%E -6.38%K -13.10%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.71%EV -15.22%E -5.25%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.11%EV -14.65%E -4.44%K -6.37%G +0.000%16.1%2026-04-20 08:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 20.21%1.17I 85.47%NM 36.97%1.01I 99.01%NM 42.82%131.2%2026-04-20 15:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 20.21%1.17I 85.47%NM 36.97%1.01I 99.01%NM 42.82%131.2%2026-04-20 15:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 20.21%1.17I 85.47%NM 36.97%1.01I 99.01%NM 42.82%131.2%2026-04-20 15:50