Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC St. Pauli v Karlsruher SC

Kickoff: 2026-10-11 11:30 UTC

Final: FC St. Pauli 2–0 Karlsruher SC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC St. Pauli (Local)

Prediction 55.84%1.79fair odd
EV -5.08%
Edge -2.99%
Kelly -7.25%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.38%55.92%55.83%57.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.661.661.7063.69%60.31%60.24%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Karlsruher SC (Visit)

Prediction 20.86%4.79fair odd
EV +0.975%
Edge +0.201%
Kelly +0.254%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 4.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.30%20.80%20.87%23.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.704.364.354.8427.03%22.92%22.99%20.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.30%4.29fair odd
EV -2.14%
Edge -0.508%
Kelly -0.667%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.19%23.28%23.30%24.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.703.964.004.2027.03%25.26%25.00%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC St. Pauli (Local): 55.84%; Karlsruher SC (Visit): 20.86%; Draw: 23.30%. For Karlsruher SC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.79. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.84, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.975%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.73%EV -5.08%E -2.99%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.84I 20.66%NM 19.92%EV +0.975%E +0.201%K +0.254%G +0.002%4.13I 24.21%NM 23.35%EV -3.77%E -0.912%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-11 11:15
Tipico (DE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.27%EV -7.87%E -4.77%K -12.11%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.69%EV +0.140%E +0.029%K +0.037%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.05%EV -4.47%E -1.09%K -1.44%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-11 11:14
FanDuel🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.54%EV -10.10%E -6.28%K -16.56%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.30%EV +0.140%E +0.029%K +0.037%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.16%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-11 11:03
Fanatics🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -5.64%E -3.34%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.12%EV -0.903%E -0.190%K -0.241%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.31%EV -4.47%E -1.09%K -1.44%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-11 11:09
SportsBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.85%EV -8.43%E -5.14%K -13.17%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.84%EV -1.95%E -0.414%K -0.526%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.31%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-11 11:04
DraftKings🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.87%EV -5.64%E -3.34%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%EV -4.03%E -0.877%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-11 11:14
BetMGM🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.87%EV -5.64%E -3.34%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.53%EV -4.03%E -0.877%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-11 10:44
LowVig.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.38%EV -5.64%E -3.34%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.94%EV -5.08%E -1.12%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.68%EV -2.14%E -0.508%K -0.667%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-11 10:39
BetOnline.ag🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.38%EV -5.64%E -3.34%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.94%EV -5.08%E -1.12%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.68%EV -2.14%E -0.508%K -0.667%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-11 10:39
Coolbet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.10%EV -5.08%E -2.99%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -6.12%E -1.36%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.71%EV -2.14%E -0.508%K -0.667%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-11 11:04
Unibet (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -5.08%E -2.99%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -6.12%E -1.36%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-11 11:19
Codere (IT)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.62%EV -5.64%E -3.34%K -8.17%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.89%EV -6.12%E -1.36%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-11 11:24
betano_uk🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.53%EV -7.87%E -4.77%K -12.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -6.12%E -1.36%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -4.47%E -1.09%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-11 11:19
Bet Victor🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.53%EV -7.87%E -4.77%K -12.11%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.73%EV -6.12%E -1.36%K -1.75%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -4.47%E -1.09%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-11 11:18
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.63%EV -10.66%E -6.66%K -17.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.14%EV -6.12%E -1.36%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.23%EV -9.13%E -2.34%K -3.15%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-11 11:19
Paddy Power🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.29%EV -10.66%E -6.66%K -17.77%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.01%EV -6.12%E -1.36%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.70%EV -11.46%E -3.01%K -4.09%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-11 10:55
Marathon Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.41%EV -7.87%E -4.77%K -12.11%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.16%EV -8.20%E -1.86%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.43%EV -3.30%E -0.795%K -1.05%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-11 10:43
PlayUp🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.00%EV -6.19%E -3.69%K -9.11%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -8.20%E -1.86%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.00%EV -10.29%E -2.67%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-11 11:24
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.32%EV -6.75%E -4.04%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.00%EV -8.20%E -1.86%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.69%EV -9.13%E -2.34%K -3.15%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-11 11:19
Bovada🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.09%EV -8.43%E -5.14%K -13.17%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.91%EV -8.20%E -1.86%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-11 10:48
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.97%EV -6.75%E -4.04%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -8.20%E -1.86%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -11.46%E -3.01%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-11 11:20
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.97%EV -6.75%E -4.04%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -8.20%E -1.86%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -11.46%E -3.01%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-11 11:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.97%EV -6.75%E -4.04%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -8.20%E -1.86%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -11.46%E -3.01%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-11 11:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.97%EV -6.75%E -4.04%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.87%EV -8.20%E -1.86%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -11.46%E -3.01%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-11 11:19
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.27%EV -7.87%E -4.77%K -12.11%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -8.20%E -1.86%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -11.46%E -3.01%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-11 11:19
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.27%EV -7.87%E -4.77%K -12.11%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.73%EV -8.20%E -1.86%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -11.46%E -3.01%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-11 11:20
1xBet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.01%EV -6.75%E -4.04%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 21.45%EV -9.04%E -2.07%K -2.69%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.54%EV -3.30%E -0.795%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-11 10:45
Grosvenor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -5.08%E -2.99%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.65%EV -9.25%E -2.13%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.97%EV -4.47%E -1.09%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-11 10:50
Unibet (NL)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -5.08%E -2.99%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.65%EV -9.25%E -2.13%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.97%EV -4.47%E -1.09%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-11 10:49
Unibet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -5.08%E -2.99%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.65%EV -9.25%E -2.13%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.97%EV -4.47%E -1.09%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-11 10:50
Unibet (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -5.08%E -2.99%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.65%EV -9.25%E -2.13%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.97%EV -4.47%E -1.09%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-11 10:49
Casumo🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -5.08%E -2.99%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.65%EV -9.25%E -2.13%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.97%EV -4.47%E -1.09%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-11 10:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -5.08%E -2.99%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.65%EV -9.25%E -2.13%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.97%EV -4.47%E -1.09%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-11 10:49
Svenska Spel🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -5.08%E -2.99%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.65%EV -9.25%E -2.13%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.97%EV -4.47%E -1.09%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-11 10:49
betPARX🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.39%EV -5.08%E -2.99%K -7.25%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 21.65%EV -9.25%E -2.13%K -2.76%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.97%EV -4.47%E -1.09%K -1.44%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-11 10:49
betfred_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.46%EV -6.75%E -4.04%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.39%EV -9.67%E -2.23%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.15%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-11 10:44
Sky Bet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 55.67%EV -10.66%E -6.66%K -17.77%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.57%EV -9.67%E -2.23%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.75%EV -12.62%E -3.37%K -4.59%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-11 11:08
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 55.84%EV -7.31%E -4.40%K -11.08%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.56%EV -10.29%E -2.39%K -3.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -4.47%E -1.09%K -1.44%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-11 11:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.99%EV -7.87%E -4.77%K -12.11%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.48%EV -10.29%E -2.39%K -3.12%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.53%EV -4.47%E -1.09%K -1.44%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-11 11:05
LeoVegas🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.21%EV -6.75%E -4.04%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.44%EV -10.29%E -2.39%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.34%EV -7.96%E -2.02%K -2.70%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-11 11:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.24%EV -6.75%E -4.04%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.70%EV -11.33%E -2.67%K -3.49%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.06%EV -6.80%E -1.70%K -2.27%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-11 11:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.38%EV -7.87%E -4.77%K -12.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -12.38%E -2.95%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.25%EV -13.79%E -3.73%K -5.11%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-11 10:44
Neds🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.38%EV -7.87%E -4.77%K -12.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -12.38%E -2.95%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.25%EV -13.79%E -3.73%K -5.11%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-11 10:45
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.38%EV -7.87%E -4.77%K -12.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -12.38%E -2.95%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.25%EV -13.79%E -3.73%K -5.11%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-11 10:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.38%EV -7.87%E -4.77%K -12.11%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.36%EV -12.38%E -2.95%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.25%EV -13.79%E -3.73%K -5.11%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-11 10:44
Betclic (FR)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 55.16%EV -11.22%E -7.06%K -19.02%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.13%EV -13.42%E -3.23%K -4.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.70%EV -13.79%E -3.73%K -5.11%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-11 11:23
TABtouch🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.78%EV -7.87%E -4.77%K -12.11%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.05%EV -14.46%E -3.53%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.18%EV -9.13%E -2.34%K -3.15%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-11 10:49
BetRivers🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.93%EV -8.43%E -5.14%K -13.17%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.97%EV -14.46%E -3.53%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -9.13%E -2.34%K -3.15%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-11 10:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 54.93%EV -8.43%E -5.14%K -13.17%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.97%EV -14.46%E -3.53%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.10%EV -9.13%E -2.34%K -3.15%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-11 10:50
Virgin Bet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.92%EV -8.99%E -5.51%K -14.26%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.83%EV -14.46%E -3.53%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.25%EV -10.29%E -2.67%K -3.61%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-11 10:50
Winamax (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.23%EV -9.54%E -5.89%K -15.40%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.82%EV -14.46%E -3.53%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.94%EV -9.13%E -2.34%K -3.15%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-11 11:19
LiveScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.05%EV -10.10%E -6.28%K -16.56%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.62%EV -14.46%E -3.53%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.33%EV -11.46%E -3.01%K -4.09%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-11 10:49
PMU (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.05%EV -10.10%E -6.28%K -16.56%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.62%EV -14.46%E -3.53%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.33%EV -11.46%E -3.01%K -4.09%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-11 10:49
NetBet (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 54.88%EV -11.78%E -7.45%K -20.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.68%EV -16.55%E -4.14%K -5.52%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.44%EV -13.79%E -3.73%K -5.11%G +0.000%15.3%2026-10-11 11:25
Unibet (FR)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 55.33%EV -12.34%E -7.86%K -21.64%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.48%EV -22.81%E -6.16%K -8.45%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.19%EV -4.47%E -1.09%K -1.44%G +0.000%15.1%2026-10-11 11:19
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.56%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.41%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.02%1.0%2026-10-11 11:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.56%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.41%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.02%1.0%2026-10-11 11:19
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.56%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.41%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.02%1.0%2026-10-11 11:20
Matchbook◎1.72I 58.14%NM 57.56%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.41%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.02%1.0%2026-10-11 10:55
Smarkets◎1.71I 58.48%NM 57.70%5.10I 19.61%NM 19.35%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.95%1.3%2026-10-11 11:00
Kalshi◎1.72I 58.14%NM 56.92%4.76I 21.01%NM 20.57%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.51%2.1%2026-10-11 11:14