The School of Odds
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FC St. Pauli v 1. FC Nürnberg

Kickoff: 2026-11-01 12:30 UTC

Final: FC St. Pauli 1–3 1. FC Nürnberg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC St. Pauli (Local)

Prediction 45.61%2.19fair odd
EV -1.03%
Edge -0.473%
Kelly -0.877%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.03%45.48%45.51%46.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.892.052.052.1752.91%48.89%48.78%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1. FC Nürnberg (Visit)

Prediction 28.60%3.50fair odd
EV -0.179%
Edge -0.051%
Kelly -0.072%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.51%28.76%28.73%31.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.143.153.4935.09%31.81%31.75%28.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.79%3.88fair odd
EV -2.01%
Edge -0.528%
Kelly -0.717%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.78%25.76%25.76%26.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.553.583.8031.25%28.17%27.93%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC St. Pauli (Local): 45.61%; 1. FC Nürnberg (Visit): 28.60%; Draw: 25.79%. For 1. FC Nürnberg (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.50. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.49, with an expected value of -0.179%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.14%EV -1.03%E -0.473%K -0.877%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.21%EV -14.19%E -4.73%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.65%EV -5.87%E -1.61%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-01 12:00
Casumo🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.14%EV -1.03%E -0.473%K -0.877%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.21%EV -14.19%E -4.73%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.65%EV -5.87%E -1.61%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-01 11:50
Grosvenor🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.14%EV -1.03%E -0.473%K -0.877%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.21%EV -14.19%E -4.73%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.65%EV -5.87%E -1.61%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-01 12:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.14%EV -1.03%E -0.473%K -0.877%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.21%EV -14.19%E -4.73%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.65%EV -5.87%E -1.61%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-01 12:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.14%EV -1.03%E -0.473%K -0.877%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.21%EV -14.19%E -4.73%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.65%EV -5.87%E -1.61%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-01 12:00
betPARX🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.14%EV -1.03%E -0.473%K -0.877%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.21%EV -14.19%E -4.73%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.65%EV -5.87%E -1.61%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-01 11:50
ATG (SE)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.14%EV -1.03%E -0.473%K -0.877%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.21%EV -14.19%E -4.73%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.65%EV -5.87%E -1.61%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-01 11:50
Svenska Spel🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.14%EV -1.03%E -0.473%K -0.877%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.21%EV -14.19%E -4.73%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.65%EV -5.87%E -1.61%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.8%2026-11-01 12:00
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.22%E -2.01%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -7.04%E -2.17%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.64%EV -4.59%E -1.24%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.4%2026-11-01 12:20
picklebet_au🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.85%EV -4.22%E -2.01%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.98%EV -7.04%E -2.17%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.16%EV -7.16%E -1.99%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-01 12:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.84%EV -4.22%E -2.01%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.38%EV -11.33%E -3.66%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.78%EV -2.01%E -0.528%K -0.717%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-01 12:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -4.22%E -2.01%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -11.33%E -3.66%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -7.16%E -1.99%K -2.76%G +0.000%7.7%2026-11-01 12:20
TABtouch🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -4.22%E -2.01%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -17.05%E -5.88%K -8.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -9.74%E -2.78%K -3.90%G +0.000%10.7%2026-11-01 12:00
Pinnacle🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 46.62%EV -5.13%E -2.47%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.79%EV -0.179%E -0.051%K -0.072%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.59%EV -2.26%E -0.597%K -0.812%G +0.000%3.1%2026-11-01 12:20
Codere (IT)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.25%EV -5.13%E -2.47%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.96%EV -7.04%E -2.17%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.79%EV -5.87%E -1.61%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.2%2026-11-01 12:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.09%EV -5.13%E -2.47%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.86%EV -7.04%E -2.17%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -7.16%E -1.99%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.6%2026-11-01 12:20
BetRivers🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.26%EV -5.13%E -2.47%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.03%EV -17.05%E -5.88%K -8.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.71%EV -9.74%E -2.78%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.1%2026-11-01 11:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.26%EV -5.13%E -2.47%K -4.75%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.03%EV -17.05%E -5.88%K -8.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.71%EV -9.74%E -2.78%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.1%2026-11-01 11:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.29%EV -5.59%E -2.70%K -5.22%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.11%EV -17.63%E -6.12%K -9.38%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.60%EV -9.74%E -2.78%K -3.90%G +0.000%11.6%2026-11-01 12:00
BetOnline.ag🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.47%EV -6.50%E -3.17%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.85%EV -2.18%E -0.638%K -0.901%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 25.68%EV -4.33%E -1.17%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-01 12:20
LowVig.ag🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.47%EV -6.50%E -3.17%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.85%EV -2.18%E -0.638%K -0.901%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 25.68%EV -4.33%E -1.17%K -1.60%G +0.000%5.0%2026-11-01 12:20
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.36%EV -6.50%E -3.17%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.95%EV -2.75%E -0.810%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.69%EV -4.59%E -1.24%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.2%2026-11-01 12:20
Fanatics🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -6.50%E -3.17%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -5.61%E -1.70%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -7.16%E -1.99%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.9%2026-11-01 12:20
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.35%EV -6.50%E -3.17%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.52%EV -9.90%E -3.14%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.13%EV -4.59%E -1.24%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-01 12:20
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.04%EV -6.50%E -3.17%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.31%EV -9.90%E -3.14%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -7.16%E -1.99%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.3%2026-11-01 12:20
Betsson🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.75%EV -6.50%E -3.17%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -8.47%E -2.65%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -11.03%E -3.20%K -4.50%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-01 12:20
NordicBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.75%EV -6.50%E -3.17%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -8.47%E -2.65%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.59%EV -11.03%E -3.20%K -4.50%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-01 12:20
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -6.50%E -3.17%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -11.33%E -3.66%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -9.74%E -2.78%K -3.90%G +0.000%9.6%2026-11-01 12:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.22%EV -6.50%E -3.17%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.09%EV -18.48%E -6.49%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.68%EV -11.03%E -3.20%K -4.50%G +0.000%12.9%2026-11-01 12:00
LiveScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.22%EV -6.50%E -3.17%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.09%EV -18.48%E -6.49%K -9.99%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.68%EV -11.03%E -3.20%K -4.50%G +0.000%12.9%2026-11-01 11:50
1xBet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.82%EV -6.96%E -3.41%K -6.69%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.07%EV -4.76%E -1.43%K -2.04%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.11%EV -7.68%E -2.15%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.0%2026-11-01 12:20
SportsBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.40%EV -7.87%E -3.89%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -2.75%E -0.810%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -7.16%E -1.99%K -2.76%G +0.000%6.7%2026-11-01 12:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.03%EV -7.87%E -3.89%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.00%EV -5.04%E -1.52%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.97%EV -7.68%E -2.15%K -2.98%G +0.000%7.6%2026-11-01 12:20
LeoVegas🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.24%EV -7.87%E -3.89%K -7.71%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.01%EV -9.90%E -3.14%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.74%EV -8.45%E -2.38%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-01 12:20
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.98%EV -8.78%E -4.39%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -2.75%E -0.810%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -4.59%E -1.24%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.4%2026-11-01 12:19
Bet Victor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -8.78%E -4.39%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -5.61%E -1.70%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -7.16%E -1.99%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.1%2026-11-01 12:19
betano_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -8.78%E -4.39%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -5.61%E -1.70%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -7.16%E -1.99%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.1%2026-11-01 12:19
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.86%EV -8.78%E -4.39%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.66%EV -8.47%E -2.65%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -7.16%E -1.99%K -2.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-11-01 12:20
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.70%EV -8.78%E -4.39%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -8.47%E -2.65%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.74%EV -8.45%E -2.38%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.4%2026-11-01 12:20
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -8.78%E -4.39%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -7.04%E -2.17%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -12.32%E -3.62%K -5.13%G +0.000%10.2%2026-11-01 12:20
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -8.78%E -4.39%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -7.04%E -2.17%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -12.32%E -3.62%K -5.13%G +0.000%10.2%2026-11-01 12:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -8.78%E -4.39%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -7.04%E -2.17%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -12.32%E -3.62%K -5.13%G +0.000%10.2%2026-11-01 12:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.38%EV -8.78%E -4.39%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -7.04%E -2.17%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.69%EV -12.32%E -3.62%K -5.13%G +0.000%10.2%2026-11-01 12:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -8.78%E -4.39%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -14.19%E -4.73%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -12.32%E -3.62%K -5.13%G +0.000%12.7%2026-11-01 12:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -8.78%E -4.39%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -14.19%E -4.73%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -12.32%E -3.62%K -5.13%G +0.000%12.7%2026-11-01 12:20
Neds🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -8.78%E -4.39%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -14.19%E -4.73%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -12.32%E -3.62%K -5.13%G +0.000%12.7%2026-11-01 12:20
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -8.78%E -4.39%K -8.78%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.57%EV -14.19%E -4.73%K -7.10%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.09%EV -12.32%E -3.62%K -5.13%G +0.000%12.7%2026-11-01 12:20
PlayUp🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.71%EV -9.69%E -4.89%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.61%EV -4.18%E -1.25%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -7.16%E -1.99%K -2.76%G +0.000%8.1%2026-11-01 12:20
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -11.06%E -5.67%K -11.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -5.61%E -1.70%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -9.74%E -2.78%K -3.90%G +0.000%10.2%2026-11-01 12:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -11.06%E -5.67%K -11.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -5.61%E -1.70%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -9.74%E -2.78%K -3.90%G +0.000%10.2%2026-11-01 12:20
Sky Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.40%EV -11.06%E -5.67%K -11.64%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.56%EV -11.33%E -3.66%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -12.32%E -3.62%K -5.13%G +0.000%13.0%2026-11-01 12:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 45.05%EV -11.52%E -5.94%K -12.25%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.62%EV -15.62%E -5.30%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.33%EV -11.03%E -3.20%K -4.50%G +0.000%14.4%2026-11-01 12:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 45.45%EV -11.97%E -6.20%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.76%EV -12.76%E -4.18%K -6.23%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.80%EV -12.32%E -3.62%K -5.13%G +0.000%14.0%2026-11-01 12:20
NetBet (FR)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 44.92%EV -11.97%E -6.20%K -12.87%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 29.19%EV -15.05%E -5.07%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.88%EV -13.61%E -4.06%K -5.79%G +0.000%15.3%2026-11-01 12:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 44.82%EV -13.80%E -7.30%K -15.50%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 28.71%EV -15.62%E -5.30%K -8.01%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.47%EV -17.48%E -5.46%K -7.95%G +0.000%18.1%2026-11-01 12:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.12I 47.17%NM 47.07%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.34%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.59%0.2%2026-11-01 12:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.12I 47.17%NM 47.07%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.34%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.59%0.2%2026-11-01 12:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.12I 47.17%NM 47.07%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.34%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.59%0.2%2026-11-01 12:20
Matchbook◎2.12I 47.17%NM 47.07%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.34%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.59%0.2%2026-11-01 12:20
Smarkets◎2.12I 47.17%NM 46.74%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.52%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.74%0.9%2026-11-01 12:20
Kalshi◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.11%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.45%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.45%2.1%2026-11-01 12:20

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