Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

FC Energie Cottbus v Greuther Fürth

Inicio: 2026-08-29 11:00 UTC

Final: FC Energie Cottbus 3–4 Greuther Fürth

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

FC Energie Cottbus (Local)

Predicción 38.36%2.61momio equitativo
EV -1.79%
Ventaja -0.700%
Kelly -1.15%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.56

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.11%38.37%38.36%39.41%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.272.402.402.5644.05%41.74%41.67%39.06%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Greuther Fürth (Visitante)

Predicción 36.22%2.76momio equitativo
EV -1.85%
Ventaja -0.683%
Kelly -1.08%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.71

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.94%36.12%36.25%37.11%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.402.562.552.7141.67%39.09%39.22%36.90%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 25.42%3.93momio equitativo
EV -2.13%
Ventaja -0.554%
Kelly -0.749%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.85

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.31%25.51%25.39%26.92%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.403.603.603.8529.41%27.75%27.78%25.97%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: FC Energie Cottbus (Local): 38.36%; Greuther Fürth (Visitante): 36.22%; Empate: 25.42%. Para FC Energie Cottbus (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.61. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.56, con un valor esperado de -1.79%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 37.82%EV -1.79%E -0.700%K -1.15%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 35.73%EV -1.85%E -0.683%K -1.08%G +0.000%3.66I 27.32%NM 26.45%EV -6.96%E -1.90%K -2.62%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-29 10:50
1xBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.00%EV -4.09%E -1.64%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.61I 38.31%NM 36.40%EV -5.47%E -2.10%K -3.40%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 25.61%EV -5.69%E -1.53%K -2.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 10:50
BetMGM🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -4.09%E -1.64%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -5.84%E -2.24%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-29 10:44
betano_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -4.09%E -1.64%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -9.46%E -3.78%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-29 10:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 38.33%EV -5.24%E -2.12%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -5.84%E -2.24%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.25%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-29 08:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.75%EV -5.63%E -2.29%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.83%EV -3.66%E -1.38%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.42%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-29 09:30
LowVig.ag🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.75%EV -5.63%E -2.29%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.83%EV -3.66%E -1.38%K -2.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.42%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-29 09:30
Suprabets🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 37.94%EV -5.63%E -2.29%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.62%EV -5.11%E -1.95%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.44%EV -10.27%E -2.91%K -4.06%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-29 10:37
Coolbet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.78%EV -6.01%E -2.45%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.54%EV -5.84%E -2.24%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.68%EV -2.13%E -0.554%K -0.749%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-29 10:50
Fanatics🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.65%EV -6.01%E -2.45%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -5.84%E -2.24%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.92%EV -3.40%E -0.896%K -1.22%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-29 08:55
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -6.01%E -2.45%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -5.84%E -2.24%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 08:50
FanDuel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -6.01%E -2.45%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -4.02%E -1.52%K -2.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.26%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 10:33
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -6.01%E -2.45%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.63%EV -7.65%E -3.00%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.24%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-29 08:50
Bet Victor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.86%EV -6.01%E -2.45%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -7.65%E -3.00%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-29 10:43
PlayUp🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.72%EV -6.01%E -2.45%K -4.15%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV -7.65%E -3.00%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.03%EV -9.76%E -2.75%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-29 10:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 38.38%EV -6.78%E -2.79%K -4.74%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 36.28%EV -6.92%E -2.69%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.34%EV -6.46%E -1.75%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-29 10:45
Betsson🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 37.85%EV -7.16%E -2.96%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.35%EV -8.73%E -3.47%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.80%EV -9.76%E -2.75%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-29 08:50
NordicBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 37.85%EV -7.16%E -2.96%K -5.04%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 36.35%EV -8.73%E -3.47%K -5.75%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.80%EV -9.76%E -2.75%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-29 08:50
Tipico (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.41%EV -7.93%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.03%EV -2.21%E -0.820%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.56%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-29 10:25
Unibet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -7.93%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.01%EV -5.84%E -2.24%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-29 10:25
Casumo🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -7.93%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.01%EV -5.84%E -2.24%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-29 10:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -7.93%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.01%EV -5.84%E -2.24%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-29 10:25
Grosvenor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -7.93%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.01%EV -5.84%E -2.24%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-29 10:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -7.93%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.01%EV -5.84%E -2.24%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-29 10:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -7.93%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.01%EV -5.84%E -2.24%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-29 10:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -7.93%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.01%EV -5.84%E -2.24%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-29 10:25
betPARX🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -7.93%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.01%EV -5.84%E -2.24%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.97%EV -4.68%E -1.25%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-29 10:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.99%EV -7.93%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.70%EV -7.65%E -3.00%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.31%EV -2.13%E -0.554%K -0.749%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-29 08:50
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -7.93%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -5.84%E -2.24%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 10:35
Betr (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -7.93%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.34%EV -7.65%E -3.00%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 10:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -7.93%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.34%EV -7.65%E -3.00%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -5.95%E -1.61%K -2.20%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-29 10:40
Bovada🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.21%EV -7.93%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV -7.65%E -3.00%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.83%EV -9.76%E -2.75%K -3.83%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-29 10:44
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -7.93%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -5.11%E -1.95%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -13.57%E -3.99%K -5.66%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-29 10:30
William Hill🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -7.93%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -5.11%E -1.95%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -13.57%E -3.99%K -5.66%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-29 10:31
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -7.93%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -5.11%E -1.95%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -13.57%E -3.99%K -5.66%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-29 10:31
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -7.93%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -5.11%E -1.95%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -13.57%E -3.99%K -5.66%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-29 10:30
LeoVegas🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -7.93%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -9.46%E -3.78%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-29 10:25
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -7.93%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -9.46%E -3.78%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-29 10:40
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.07%EV -7.93%E -3.30%K -5.66%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -9.46%E -3.78%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.38%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.26%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-29 08:50
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.71%EV -8.70%E -3.65%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -9.46%E -3.78%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -13.57%E -3.99%K -5.66%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-29 10:35
Neds🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.71%EV -8.70%E -3.65%K -6.30%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.90%EV -9.46%E -3.78%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.40%EV -13.57%E -3.99%K -5.66%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-29 10:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.81%EV -9.08%E -3.83%K -6.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.84%EV -9.46%E -3.78%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -13.57%E -3.99%K -5.66%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-29 10:35
Coral🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 37.81%EV -9.08%E -3.83%K -6.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.84%EV -9.46%E -3.78%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -13.57%E -3.99%K -5.66%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-29 10:35
Betclic (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.57%EV -9.85%E -4.19%K -7.29%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.25%EV -9.46%E -3.78%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.26%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-29 10:35
TABtouch🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 38.77%EV -10.61%E -4.56%K -7.98%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.13%EV -9.46%E -3.78%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.09%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.26%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-29 10:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.74%EV -11.00%E -4.74%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.95%EV -9.46%E -3.78%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.32%EV -9.76%E -2.75%K -3.83%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-29 10:25
BetRivers🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 38.74%EV -11.00%E -4.74%K -8.33%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.95%EV -9.46%E -3.78%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.32%EV -9.76%E -2.75%K -3.83%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-29 10:25
Unibet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.08%EV -11.77%E -5.12%K -9.05%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.95%EV -9.46%E -3.78%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.26%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-29 10:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.08%EV -11.77%E -5.12%K -9.05%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.25%EV -7.65%E -3.00%K -4.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.68%EV -11.03%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-29 10:45
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.80%EV -11.77%E -5.12%K -9.05%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%EV -9.46%E -3.78%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -11.03%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000%12.0%2026-08-29 10:30
Sky Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -11.77%E -5.12%K -9.05%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -9.46%E -3.78%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -13.57%E -3.99%K -5.66%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-29 10:31
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.50%EV -11.77%E -5.12%K -9.05%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.90%EV -13.08%E -5.45%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.60%EV -8.49%E -2.36%K -3.26%G +0.000%12.9%2026-08-29 08:50
LiveScore Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 38.90%EV -12.53%E -5.50%K -9.79%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 35.76%EV -10.18%E -4.11%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.34%EV -11.03%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-29 10:25
Virgin Bet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 38.90%EV -12.53%E -5.50%K -9.79%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 35.76%EV -10.18%E -4.11%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.34%EV -11.03%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-29 10:25
PMU (FR)🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 38.90%EV -12.53%E -5.50%K -9.79%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 35.76%EV -10.18%E -4.11%K -6.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.34%EV -11.03%E -3.15%K -4.41%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-29 10:25
NetBet (FR)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 38.38%EV -12.92%E -5.69%K -10.17%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 36.00%EV -12.35%E -5.11%K -8.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.62%EV -13.57%E -3.99%K -5.66%G +0.000%14.8%2026-08-29 10:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.18%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.70%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.12%0.7%2026-08-29 10:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.58I 38.76%NM 38.36%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.60%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.04%1.0%2026-08-29 10:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.58I 38.76%NM 38.36%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.60%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.04%1.0%2026-08-29 10:56
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.58I 38.76%NM 38.36%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.60%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.04%1.0%2026-08-29 10:55
Smarkets◎2.58I 38.76%NM 38.13%2.76I 36.23%NM 35.64%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.23%1.7%2026-08-29 10:55
Kalshi◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.27%2.78I 35.97%NM 35.24%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.48%2.1%2026-08-29 10:55