Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Energie Cottbus v 1. FC Nürnberg

Kickoff: 2026-10-16 16:30 UTC

Final: FC Energie Cottbus 1–1 1. FC Nürnberg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

FC Energie Cottbus (Local)

Prediction 28.32%3.53fair odd
EV +3.38%
Edge +0.925%
Kelly +1.27%
Growth +0.043%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.67%28.17%28.39%29.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.333.303.6532.79%29.99%30.30%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1. FC Nürnberg (Visit)

Prediction 49.53%2.02fair odd
EV -3.91%
Edge -2.01%
Kelly -4.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.34%49.67%49.47%51.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.841.851.9457.80%54.25%54.05%51.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.15%4.52fair odd
EV -0.566%
Edge -0.126%
Kelly -0.162%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.54%22.16%22.14%22.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.104.104.4925.97%24.37%24.39%22.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Energie Cottbus (Local): 28.32%; 1. FC Nürnberg (Visit): 49.53%; Draw: 22.15%. For FC Energie Cottbus (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.53. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.38%.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%EV +3.38%E +0.925%K +1.27%G +0.043%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.48%EV -9.85%E -5.41%K -12.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -9.20%E -2.24%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-16 15:44
Grosvenor🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%EV +3.38%E +0.925%K +1.27%G +0.043%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.48%EV -9.85%E -5.41%K -12.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -9.20%E -2.24%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-16 15:45
Unibet (SE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%EV +3.38%E +0.925%K +1.27%G +0.043%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.48%EV -9.85%E -5.41%K -12.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -9.20%E -2.24%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-16 15:44
Unibet (NL)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%EV +3.38%E +0.925%K +1.27%G +0.043%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.48%EV -9.85%E -5.41%K -12.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -9.20%E -2.24%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-16 15:44
Casumo🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%EV +3.38%E +0.925%K +1.27%G +0.043%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.48%EV -9.85%E -5.41%K -12.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -9.20%E -2.24%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-16 15:44
ATG (SE)🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%EV +3.38%E +0.925%K +1.27%G +0.043%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.48%EV -9.85%E -5.41%K -12.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -9.20%E -2.24%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-16 15:44
betPARX🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%EV +3.38%E +0.925%K +1.27%G +0.043%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.48%EV -9.85%E -5.41%K -12.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -9.20%E -2.24%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-16 15:45
Svenska Spel🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.67%EV +3.38%E +0.925%K +1.27%G +0.043%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.48%EV -9.85%E -5.41%K -12.01%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -9.20%E -2.24%K -2.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-16 15:44
Fanatics🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -0.873%E -0.249%K -0.349%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.78%EV -7.37%E -3.94%K -8.48%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.08%EV -4.77%E -1.11%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-16 15:40
Tipico (DE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.98%EV -0.873%E -0.249%K -0.349%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 51.05%EV -8.37%E -4.52%K -9.84%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -4.77%E -1.11%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-16 16:20
TABtouch🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.88%EV -0.873%E -0.249%K -0.349%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.18%EV -12.33%E -6.96%K -16.01%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.93%EV -12.53%E -3.17%K -4.25%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-16 15:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.08%EV -2.29%E -0.663%K -0.934%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 51.13%EV -12.82%E -7.29%K -16.87%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.78%EV -12.53%E -3.17%K -4.25%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-16 15:45
BetRivers🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.08%EV -2.29%E -0.663%K -0.934%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 51.13%EV -12.82%E -7.29%K -16.87%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.78%EV -12.53%E -3.17%K -4.25%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-16 15:45
Virgin Bet🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 25.93%EV -2.29%E -0.663%K -0.934%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 51.13%EV -13.32%E -7.61%K -17.76%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.94%EV -13.63%E -3.50%K -4.70%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-16 15:45
Coolbet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -3.70%E -1.09%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.50%EV -6.88%E -3.66%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.58%EV -2.56%E -0.582%K -0.753%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-16 15:49
BetMGM🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.90%EV -3.70%E -1.09%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.19%EV -6.38%E -3.38%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.91%EV -4.11%E -0.949%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-16 15:40
FanDuel🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.57%EV -3.70%E -1.09%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.12%EV -7.37%E -3.94%K -8.48%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.32%EV -6.99%E -1.66%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-16 16:14
LiveScore Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 25.98%EV -3.70%E -1.09%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.07%EV -14.31%E -8.27%K -19.60%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.95%EV -14.74%E -3.83%K -5.17%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-16 15:45
PMU (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 25.98%EV -3.70%E -1.09%K -1.54%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.07%EV -14.31%E -8.27%K -19.60%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.95%EV -14.74%E -3.83%K -5.17%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-16 15:45
Pinnacle🎯3.38I 29.59%NM 28.61%EV -4.27%E -1.26%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.85%EV -3.91%E -2.01%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.49I 22.27%NM 21.54%EV -0.566%E -0.126%K -0.162%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-16 16:25
BetOnline.ag🎯3.37I 29.67%NM 28.66%EV -4.55%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.78%EV -3.91%E -2.01%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.48I 22.32%NM 21.56%EV -0.788%E -0.176%K -0.226%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-16 16:25
LowVig.ag🎯3.37I 29.67%NM 28.66%EV -4.55%E -1.35%K -1.92%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.78%EV -3.91%E -2.01%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.48I 22.32%NM 21.56%EV -0.788%E -0.176%K -0.226%G +0.000%3.5%2026-10-16 16:25
SportsBet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.94%EV -5.12%E -1.53%K -2.18%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.78%EV -6.88%E -3.66%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -6.99%E -1.66%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-16 16:14
DraftKings🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.61%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.43%EV -5.39%E -2.82%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -4.77%E -1.11%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-16 16:05
Codere (IT)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.04%EV -4.90%E -2.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.42%EV -6.99%E -1.66%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-16 16:10
picklebet_au🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.04%EV -4.90%E -2.55%K -5.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.42%EV -6.99%E -1.66%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-16 16:00
Unibet (UK)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -5.39%E -2.82%K -5.93%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -6.99%E -1.66%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-16 16:00
Marathon Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.24%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.57%EV -6.88%E -3.66%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19%EV -6.99%E -1.66%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-16 16:05
Betr (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.02%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.97%EV -8.37%E -4.52%K -9.84%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.01%EV -6.99%E -1.66%K -2.18%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-16 15:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -6.54%E -1.98%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.37%EV -9.36%E -5.11%K -11.27%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.69%EV -5.88%E -1.38%K -1.81%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-16 15:50
1xBet🎯3.29I 30.40%NM 28.45%EV -6.82%E -2.07%K -2.98%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.26%EV -5.89%E -3.10%K -6.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%EV -6.99%E -1.66%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-16 16:05
PlayUp🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.40%EV -7.95%E -2.45%K -3.53%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.09%EV -6.88%E -3.66%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.51%EV -9.20%E -2.24%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-16 16:15
Bovada🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.32%EV -7.95%E -2.45%K -3.53%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 49.23%EV -7.37%E -3.94%K -8.48%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.45%EV -9.20%E -2.24%K -2.97%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-16 16:08
betfred_uk🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -7.95%E -2.45%K -3.53%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.03%EV -9.36%E -5.11%K -11.27%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.80%EV -6.99%E -1.66%K -2.18%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-16 15:50
Paddy Power🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.87%EV -7.95%E -2.45%K -3.53%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.49%EV -9.36%E -5.11%K -11.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -11.42%E -2.85%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-16 16:15
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.87%EV -7.95%E -2.45%K -3.53%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.49%EV -9.36%E -5.11%K -11.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.64%EV -11.42%E -2.85%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-16 16:15
betano_uk🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.02%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.87%EV -5.89%E -3.10%K -6.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.11%EV -6.99%E -1.66%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-16 16:25
Bet Victor🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.02%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.87%EV -5.89%E -3.10%K -6.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.11%EV -6.99%E -1.66%K -2.18%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-16 16:24
Winamax (DE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.02%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 49.39%EV -6.88%E -3.66%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.59%EV -4.77%E -1.11%K -1.45%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-16 16:00
LeoVegas🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.34%EV -5.89%E -3.10%K -6.54%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.96%EV -11.42%E -2.85%K -3.81%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-16 16:15
NordicBet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.63%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.74%EV -6.88%E -3.66%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.63%EV -10.31%E -2.55%K -3.38%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-16 16:00
Betsson🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.63%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.74%EV -6.88%E -3.66%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.63%EV -10.31%E -2.55%K -3.38%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-16 16:00
theScore Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.48%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 48.74%EV -7.37%E -3.94%K -8.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.78%EV -11.42%E -2.85%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-16 15:59
888sport🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.00%EV -8.37%E -4.52%K -9.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.66%EV -11.42%E -2.85%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-16 16:08
William Hill🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.00%EV -8.37%E -4.52%K -9.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.66%EV -11.42%E -2.85%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-16 16:10
888sport (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.00%EV -8.37%E -4.52%K -9.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.66%EV -11.42%E -2.85%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-16 16:08
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.00%EV -8.37%E -4.52%K -9.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.66%EV -11.42%E -2.85%K -3.81%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-16 16:09
Neds🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.41%EV -10.84%E -6.02%K -13.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -13.63%E -3.50%K -4.70%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-16 15:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.41%EV -10.84%E -6.02%K -13.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -13.63%E -3.50%K -4.70%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-16 15:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.41%EV -10.84%E -6.02%K -13.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -13.63%E -3.50%K -4.70%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-16 15:40
Coral🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.41%EV -10.84%E -6.02%K -13.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -13.63%E -3.50%K -4.70%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-16 15:40
Sky Bet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.79%EV -9.37%E -2.93%K -4.26%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.41%EV -10.84%E -6.02%K -13.55%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.80%EV -13.63%E -3.50%K -4.70%G +0.000%12.4%2026-10-16 16:00
Unibet (FR)🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 27.64%EV -10.79%E -3.42%K -5.02%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 50.32%EV -14.31%E -8.27%K -19.60%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.04%EV -12.53%E -3.17%K -4.25%G +0.000%14.9%2026-10-16 16:15
NetBet (FR)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.36%EV -12.20%E -3.94%K -5.81%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 49.39%EV -11.83%E -6.65%K -15.17%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.26%EV -12.53%E -3.17%K -4.25%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-16 16:19
Betclic (FR)🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 28.49%EV -12.77%E -4.15%K -6.14%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 49.02%EV -11.34%E -6.33%K -14.35%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.50%EV -13.63%E -3.50%K -4.70%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-16 16:10
Winamax (FR)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 29.40%EV -13.62%E -4.46%K -6.64%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 48.73%EV -8.86%E -4.82%K -10.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 21.87%EV -9.20%E -2.24%K -2.97%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-16 15:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎3.60I 27.78%NM 27.71%1.99I 50.25%NM 50.13%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.17%0.3%2026-10-16 16:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.93%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.08%0.6%2026-10-16 16:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99%1.99I 50.25%NM 49.93%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.08%0.6%2026-10-16 16:20
Smarkets◎3.55I 28.17%NM 27.92%1.98I 50.51%NM 50.06%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.02%0.9%2026-10-16 16:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.55I 28.17%NM 27.92%1.98I 50.51%NM 50.06%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.02%0.9%2026-10-16 16:25
Kalshi◎3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42%1.96I 51.02%NM 50.03%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.55%2.0%2026-10-16 16:00