Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Eintracht Braunschweig v Holstein Kiel

Kickoff: 2026-10-09 16:30 UTC

Final: Eintracht Braunschweig 1–0 Holstein Kiel

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Eintracht Braunschweig (Local)

Prediction 35.65%2.81fair odd
EV -1.26%
Edge -0.455%
Kelly -0.711%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.38%35.63%35.45%36.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.582.562.7741.67%38.83%39.06%36.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Holstein Kiel (Visit)

Prediction 38.92%2.57fair odd
EV -2.69%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -1.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.80%38.94%39.03%40.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.362.382.5046.51%42.29%42.02%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.43%3.93fair odd
EV -2.10%
Edge -0.545%
Kelly -0.736%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.46%25.43%25.52%26.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.593.603.8529.41%27.87%27.78%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Eintracht Braunschweig (Local): 35.65%; Holstein Kiel (Visit): 38.92%; Draw: 25.43%. For Eintracht Braunschweig (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.81. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.77, with an expected value of -1.26%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 34.38%EV -1.26%E -0.455%K -0.711%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.02%EV -7.36%E -3.09%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.60%EV -5.40%E -1.45%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-04 18:10
LowVig.ag🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 34.38%EV -1.26%E -0.455%K -0.711%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.02%EV -7.36%E -3.09%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.60%EV -5.40%E -1.45%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-04 18:35
BetMGM🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.03%EV -3.75%E -1.39%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.74%EV -7.36%E -3.09%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -4.64%E -1.24%K -1.69%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-28 09:00
Tipico (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -3.75%E -1.39%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.13%EV -6.58%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-04 21:49
Unibet (UK)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.46%EV -5.54%E -2.09%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.15%EV -6.58%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.39%EV -5.91%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-04 16:33
Codere (IT)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -5.54%E -2.09%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.11%EV -6.97%E -2.92%K -5.02%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.61%EV -7.18%E -1.97%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-04 16:35
Pinnacle🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.29%EV -6.25%E -2.38%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.18%EV -2.69%E -1.08%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.52%EV -4.89%E -1.31%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-05 11:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.66%EV -6.25%E -2.38%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.28%EV -4.64%E -1.89%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-03 02:20
Grosvenor🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.66%EV -6.25%E -2.38%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.28%EV -4.64%E -1.89%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-03 02:15
betPARX🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.66%EV -6.25%E -2.38%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.28%EV -4.64%E -1.89%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-03 02:20
Casumo🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.66%EV -6.25%E -2.38%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.28%EV -4.64%E -1.89%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-03 02:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.66%EV -6.25%E -2.38%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.28%EV -4.64%E -1.89%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-03 02:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.66%EV -6.25%E -2.38%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.28%EV -4.64%E -1.89%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-03 02:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.66%EV -6.25%E -2.38%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.28%EV -4.64%E -1.89%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-03 02:20
Unibet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.66%EV -6.25%E -2.38%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.28%EV -4.64%E -1.89%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.05%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-03 02:15
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -6.61%E -2.52%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.94%EV -8.53%E -3.63%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.14%EV -11.00%E -3.14%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-23 08:05
Betsson🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.92%EV -6.61%E -2.52%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.94%EV -8.53%E -3.63%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.14%EV -11.00%E -3.14%K -4.40%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-23 08:05
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.54%EV -7.32%E -2.82%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.78%EV -4.64%E -1.89%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.68%EV -2.10%E -0.545%K -0.736%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-05 11:50
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.13%EV -7.32%E -2.82%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -6.58%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -3.37%E -0.886%K -1.20%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-05 11:25
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.53%EV -7.32%E -2.82%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.81%EV -7.36%E -3.09%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.66%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-05 11:50
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.35%EV -7.32%E -2.82%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.11%EV -8.53%E -3.63%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-25 12:45
PlayUp🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.35%EV -7.32%E -2.82%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.11%EV -8.53%E -3.63%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-05 11:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.50%EV -7.32%E -2.82%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.87%EV -12.42%E -5.52%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.63%EV -11.00%E -3.14%K -4.40%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-28 08:39
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.50%EV -7.32%E -2.82%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.87%EV -12.42%E -5.52%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.63%EV -11.00%E -3.14%K -4.40%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-28 12:20
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.50%EV -7.32%E -2.82%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.87%EV -12.42%E -5.52%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.63%EV -11.00%E -3.14%K -4.40%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-28 12:18
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.50%EV -7.32%E -2.82%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.87%EV -12.42%E -5.52%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.63%EV -11.00%E -3.14%K -4.40%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-28 12:20
1xBet🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 36.31%EV -8.75%E -3.42%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 38.57%EV -6.19%E -2.57%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -5.91%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-05 11:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.56I 39.06%NM 36.31%EV -8.75%E -3.42%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 38.57%EV -6.19%E -2.57%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.12%EV -5.91%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-05 11:20
FanDuel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.58%EV -9.10%E -3.57%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.87%EV -6.58%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -3.37%E -0.886%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-05 11:50
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.58%EV -9.10%E -3.57%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.87%EV -6.58%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -3.37%E -0.886%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-05 11:51
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.58%EV -9.10%E -3.57%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.87%EV -6.58%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -3.37%E -0.886%K -1.20%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-05 11:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.34%EV -9.10%E -3.57%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -6.58%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -5.91%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-05 11:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.34%EV -9.10%E -3.57%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -6.58%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -5.91%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-05 11:50
Suprabets🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.29%EV -9.10%E -3.57%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 38.08%EV -5.41%E -2.23%K -3.79%G +0.000%3.61I 27.70%NM 25.63%EV -8.20%E -2.27%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-05 11:28
Bet Victor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.97%EV -9.10%E -3.57%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.54%EV -7.36%E -3.09%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-05 11:19
betano_uk🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.97%EV -9.10%E -3.57%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.54%EV -7.36%E -3.09%K -5.33%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.48%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-05 11:19
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.80%EV -9.10%E -3.57%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.84%EV -8.53%E -3.63%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.36%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-05 11:23
LeoVegas🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.67%EV -9.10%E -3.57%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.71%EV -8.53%E -3.63%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.62%EV -9.73%E -2.74%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-05 11:20
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.41%EV -9.10%E -3.57%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.42%EV -8.53%E -3.63%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.17%EV -12.27%E -3.56%K -5.01%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-03 02:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.41%EV -9.10%E -3.57%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.42%EV -8.53%E -3.63%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.17%EV -12.27%E -3.56%K -5.01%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-03 02:20
TABtouch🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.41%EV -9.10%E -3.57%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.42%EV -8.53%E -3.63%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.17%EV -12.27%E -3.56%K -5.01%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-03 01:35
theScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.25%EV -9.10%E -3.57%K -5.87%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.08%EV -10.47%E -4.55%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.68%EV -11.00%E -3.14%K -4.40%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-03 14:40
Betclic (FR)🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 34.85%EV -10.17%E -4.04%K -6.69%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 39.55%EV -13.59%E -6.12%K -11.14%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 25.60%EV -12.78%E -3.73%K -5.26%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-01 16:38
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -10.88%E -4.35%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -6.58%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -11.00%E -3.14%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-05 11:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -10.88%E -4.35%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -6.58%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -11.00%E -3.14%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-05 11:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -10.88%E -4.35%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -6.58%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -11.00%E -3.14%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-05 11:20
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -10.88%E -4.35%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -6.58%E -2.74%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -11.00%E -3.14%K -4.40%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-05 11:20
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.20%EV -10.88%E -4.35%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.34%EV -10.47%E -4.55%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.46%EV -5.91%E -1.60%K -2.19%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-05 11:49
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.64%EV -10.88%E -4.35%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.60%EV -12.42%E -5.52%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.75%EV -8.45%E -2.35%K -3.25%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-03 22:33
Virgin Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.61%EV -10.88%E -4.35%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.21%EV -9.31%E -3.99%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.18%EV -13.54%E -3.98%K -5.64%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-03 02:15
LiveScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.61%EV -10.88%E -4.35%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 38.21%EV -9.31%E -3.99%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.18%EV -13.54%E -3.98%K -5.64%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-03 02:15
Unibet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.51%EV -10.88%E -4.35%K -7.26%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 40.12%EV -16.31%E -7.59%K -14.19%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.37%EV -13.54%E -3.98%K -5.64%G +0.000%15.9%2026-10-03 16:35
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.86%EV -12.67%E -5.17%K -8.74%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.04%EV -12.42%E -5.52%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.10%EV -11.00%E -3.14%K -4.40%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-03 22:35
NetBet (FR)🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 35.88%EV -13.74%E -5.68%K -9.67%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.59%EV -12.42%E -5.52%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.54%EV -13.54%E -3.98%K -5.64%G +0.000%15.2%2026-10-05 11:24
Sky Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.07%EV -14.45%E -6.02%K -10.32%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.47%EV -12.42%E -5.52%K -9.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.46%EV -13.54%E -3.98%K -5.64%G +0.000%15.5%2026-10-05 11:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.70I 37.04%NM 35.59%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.44%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.97%4.1%2026-10-05 13:35
Smarkets◎2.44I 40.98%NM 35.23%2.22I 45.05%NM 38.72%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.05%16.3%2026-09-29 18:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.28I 78.13%NM 42.36%1.28I 78.13%NM 42.36%3.55I 28.17%NM 15.27%84.4%2026-10-05 13:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.28I 78.13%NM 42.36%1.28I 78.13%NM 42.36%3.55I 28.17%NM 15.27%84.4%2026-10-05 13:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.28I 78.13%NM 42.36%1.28I 78.13%NM 42.36%3.55I 28.17%NM 15.27%84.4%2026-10-05 13:35