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Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)
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Dynamo Dresden v Hertha Berlin

Inicio: 2026-09-19 18:30 UTC

Final: Dynamo Dresden 1–2 Hertha Berlin

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

55 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Dynamo Dresden (Local)

Predicción 36.32%2.75momio equitativo
EV -1.95%
Ventaja -0.722%
Kelly -1.15%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
34.97%36.24%36.31%37.84%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.402.532.522.7041.67%39.49%39.68%37.04%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Hertha Berlin (Visitante)

Predicción 38.91%2.57momio equitativo
EV -0.384%
Ventaja -0.150%
Kelly -0.246%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.56

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.10%39.00%38.87%40.43%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.202.362.382.5645.45%42.34%42.02%39.06%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 24.77%4.04momio equitativo
EV -0.910%
Ventaja -0.228%
Kelly -0.303%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 4.00

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.76%24.76%24.82%26.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.403.733.754.0029.41%26.83%26.67%25.00%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Dynamo Dresden (Local): 36.32%; Hertha Berlin (Visitante): 38.91%; Empate: 24.77%. Para Hertha Berlin (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 2.57. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 2.56, con un valor esperado de -0.384%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (55 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
BetMGM🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.03%EV -1.95%E -0.722%K -1.15%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.41%EV -6.61%E -2.75%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.56%EV -8.34%E -2.25%K -3.09%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-19 14:01
Tipico (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.97%EV -1.95%E -0.722%K -1.15%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.18%EV -8.56%E -3.64%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.85%EV -5.86%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-19 18:10
Pinnacle🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 36.37%EV -3.40%E -1.28%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.70%EV -2.72%E -1.09%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.93%EV -3.88%E -1.00%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-19 18:27
FanDuel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.40%EV -3.77%E -1.42%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.92%EV -8.56%E -3.64%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -5.86%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-19 17:35
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -3.77%E -1.42%K -2.28%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.43%EV -10.50%E -4.57%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -5.86%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-19 17:40
LowVig.ag🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.72%EV -4.85%E -1.85%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.48%EV -2.72%E -1.09%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.80%EV -3.88%E -1.00%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-19 18:27
BetOnline.ag🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.72%EV -4.85%E -1.85%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.48%EV -2.72%E -1.09%K -1.81%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.80%EV -3.88%E -1.00%K -1.35%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-19 18:26
Coolbet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -5.58%E -2.15%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.63%EV -6.61%E -2.75%K -4.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -0.910%E -0.228%K -0.303%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-19 14:01
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -5.58%E -2.15%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.65%EV -4.66%E -1.90%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.92%EV -5.86%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-19 18:26
Codere (IT)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.37%EV -5.58%E -2.15%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 38.75%EV -5.05%E -2.07%K -3.51%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.88%EV -5.86%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-19 14:01
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.72%EV -5.58%E -2.15%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.52%EV -8.56%E -3.64%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.76%EV -7.10%E -1.89%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-19 17:34
Suprabets🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.59%EV -5.58%E -2.15%K -3.49%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 39.20%EV -8.17%E -3.46%K -6.00%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 25.21%EV -9.09%E -2.48%K -3.40%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-19 18:04
Marathon Bet🎯2.58I 38.76%NM 36.07%EV -6.31%E -2.44%K -3.99%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.11%EV -7.39%E -3.10%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.82%EV -7.10%E -1.89%K -2.58%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-19 18:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -7.40%E -2.90%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.38%EV -4.66%E -1.90%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -5.86%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-19 14:01
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.81%EV -7.40%E -2.90%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -7.39%E -3.10%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%EV -2.15%E -0.544%K -0.728%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-19 17:54
Grosvenor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.81%EV -7.40%E -2.90%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -7.39%E -3.10%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%EV -2.15%E -0.544%K -0.728%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-19 17:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.81%EV -7.40%E -2.90%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -7.39%E -3.10%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%EV -2.15%E -0.544%K -0.728%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-19 17:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.81%EV -7.40%E -2.90%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -7.39%E -3.10%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%EV -2.15%E -0.544%K -0.728%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-19 17:54
betPARX🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.81%EV -7.40%E -2.90%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -7.39%E -3.10%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%EV -2.15%E -0.544%K -0.728%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-19 17:54
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.81%EV -7.40%E -2.90%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -7.39%E -3.10%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%EV -2.15%E -0.544%K -0.728%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-19 17:54
Unibet (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.81%EV -7.40%E -2.90%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -7.39%E -3.10%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%EV -2.15%E -0.544%K -0.728%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-19 17:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.81%EV -7.40%E -2.90%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.43%EV -7.39%E -3.10%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%EV -2.15%E -0.544%K -0.728%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-19 17:55
betano_uk🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.58%EV -7.40%E -2.90%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.87%EV -6.61%E -2.75%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -5.86%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-19 18:26
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.28%EV -7.40%E -2.90%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.37%EV -8.56%E -3.64%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -5.86%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-19 14:01
Betr (AU)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.28%EV -7.40%E -2.90%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.37%EV -8.56%E -3.64%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -5.86%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-19 13:59
PlayUp🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.22%EV -7.40%E -2.90%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.48%EV -6.61%E -2.75%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.30%EV -9.58%E -2.62%K -3.62%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-19 18:04
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.92%EV -7.40%E -2.90%K -4.77%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.98%EV -8.56%E -3.64%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -9.58%E -2.62%K -3.62%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-19 18:25
Betsson🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.25%EV -8.49%E -3.37%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.38%EV -7.39%E -3.10%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.37%EV -10.82%E -3.01%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-19 14:01
NordicBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.25%EV -8.49%E -3.37%K -5.58%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.38%EV -7.39%E -3.10%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.37%EV -10.82%E -3.01%K -4.16%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-19 14:01
1xBet🎯2.51I 39.84%NM 37.84%EV -8.85%E -3.53%K -5.86%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.10%EV -0.384%E -0.150%K -0.246%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.06%EV -6.11%E -1.61%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-19 18:27
Bet Victor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -9.21%E -3.68%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.10%EV -4.66%E -1.90%K -3.22%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.56%EV -5.86%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-19 18:26
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.86%EV -9.21%E -3.68%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.21%EV -8.56%E -3.64%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.93%EV -4.63%E -1.20%K -1.62%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-19 14:01
betfred_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.80%EV -9.21%E -3.68%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -7.39%E -3.10%K -5.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.54%EV -7.10%E -1.89%K -2.58%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-19 14:00
theScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.80%EV -9.21%E -3.68%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -6.61%E -2.75%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -8.34%E -2.25%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-19 14:01
LeoVegas🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.62%EV -9.21%E -3.68%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -8.56%E -3.64%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -7.10%E -1.89%K -2.58%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-19 17:39
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.21%E -3.68%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -6.61%E -2.75%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -13.30%E -3.80%K -5.32%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-19 18:20
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.21%E -3.68%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -6.61%E -2.75%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -13.30%E -3.80%K -5.32%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-19 18:20
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.21%E -3.68%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -6.61%E -2.75%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -13.30%E -3.80%K -5.32%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-19 18:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.21%E -3.68%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -6.61%E -2.75%K -4.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -13.30%E -3.80%K -5.32%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-19 18:20
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.95%EV -9.21%E -3.68%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.08%EV -10.50%E -4.57%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -10.82%E -3.01%K -4.16%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-19 16:54
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -9.21%E -3.68%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -10.50%E -4.57%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -15.77%E -4.64%K -6.57%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-19 14:01
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -9.21%E -3.68%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -10.50%E -4.57%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -15.77%E -4.64%K -6.57%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-19 14:01
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -9.21%E -3.68%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -10.50%E -4.57%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -15.77%E -4.64%K -6.57%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-19 14:01
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.43%EV -9.21%E -3.68%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.51%EV -10.50%E -4.57%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.05%EV -15.77%E -4.64%K -6.57%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-19 14:01
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.39%EV -9.21%E -3.68%K -6.14%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.33%EV -12.45%E -5.53%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.28%EV -13.30%E -3.80%K -5.32%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-19 17:39
TABtouch🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.90%EV -11.03%E -4.50%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.31%EV -10.50%E -4.57%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.79%EV -5.86%E -1.54%K -2.09%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-19 17:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.66%EV -11.03%E -4.50%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.39%EV -11.28%E -4.95%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -7.10%E -1.89%K -2.58%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-19 17:55
BetRivers🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.66%EV -11.03%E -4.50%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.39%EV -11.28%E -4.95%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.95%EV -7.10%E -1.89%K -2.58%G +0.000%11.3%2026-09-19 17:55
NetBet (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.98%EV -11.03%E -4.50%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.18%EV -12.45%E -5.53%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.83%EV -12.06%E -3.40%K -4.73%G +0.000%13.4%2026-09-19 17:44
Unibet (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.79%EV -11.03%E -4.50%K -7.61%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.86%EV -14.39%E -6.54%K -11.99%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.36%EV -10.82%E -3.01%K -4.16%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-19 18:04
LiveScore Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.85%EV -11.75%E -4.84%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.27%EV -11.28%E -4.95%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.88%EV -7.10%E -1.89%K -2.58%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-19 17:54
Virgin Bet🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.85%EV -11.75%E -4.84%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.27%EV -11.28%E -4.95%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.88%EV -7.10%E -1.89%K -2.58%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-19 17:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 36.12%EV -11.75%E -4.84%K -8.22%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.01%EV -12.45%E -5.53%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 24.87%EV -12.55%E -3.56%K -4.96%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-19 18:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.15%EV -12.84%E -5.35%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.76%EV -10.50%E -4.57%K -8.08%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.09%EV -8.34%E -2.25%K -3.09%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-19 14:01
PMU (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.83%EV -12.84%E -5.35%K -9.17%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.28%EV -12.45%E -5.53%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.89%EV -8.34%E -2.25%K -3.09%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-19 17:55
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.80I 35.71%NM 35.46%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.72%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.82%0.7%2026-09-19 18:05
Smarkets◎2.82I 35.46%NM 35.19%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.69%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.12%0.8%2026-09-19 18:27
Kalshi◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.63%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.62%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.76%1.0%2026-09-19 17:34
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.80I 35.71%NM 35.35%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.59%3.95I 25.32%NM 25.06%1.0%2026-09-19 18:26
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.51%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.49%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.99%1.3%2026-09-19 18:27
Matchbook◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.51%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.49%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.99%1.3%2026-09-19 18:27