The School of Odds
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Dynamo Dresden v 1. FC Magdeburg

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 11:30 UTC

Final: Dynamo Dresden 2–0 1. FC Magdeburg

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dynamo Dresden (Local)

Prediction 36.39%2.75fair odd
EV -2.84%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -1.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.82%36.41%36.39%38.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.332.502.502.6742.92%39.95%40.00%37.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1. FC Magdeburg (Visit)

Prediction 37.43%2.67fair odd
EV -2.69%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -1.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.18%37.42%37.41%39.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.472.452.6045.45%40.41%40.82%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.18%3.82fair odd
EV -1.82%
Edge -0.486%
Kelly -0.662%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.06%26.17%26.20%27.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.533.523.7530.77%28.29%28.41%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dynamo Dresden (Local): 36.39%; 1. FC Magdeburg (Visit): 37.43%; Draw: 26.18%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.82. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.75, with an expected value of -1.82%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 35.67%EV -2.84%E -1.06%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.09%EV -6.43%E -2.57%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.24%EV -4.96%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-18 11:24
BetOnline.ag🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 35.67%EV -2.84%E -1.06%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.09%EV -6.43%E -2.57%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.24%EV -4.96%E -1.37%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-18 11:24
Pinnacle🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 36.41%EV -3.20%E -1.20%K -1.93%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.69%EV -3.81%E -1.48%K -2.43%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.90%EV -2.08%E -0.557%K -0.760%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-18 11:24
FanDuel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.76%EV -3.56%E -1.35%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.91%EV -6.43%E -2.57%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-18 11:29
Tipico (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.49%EV -3.56%E -1.35%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.39%EV -8.30%E -3.39%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-18 11:29
1xBet🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 36.40%EV -5.02%E -1.92%K -3.12%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 37.85%EV -6.06%E -2.41%K -4.01%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 25.75%EV -3.39%E -0.919%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 11:29
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.47%EV -5.38%E -2.07%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -4.56%E -1.79%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.34%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-18 11:15
Codere (IT)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.34%EV -5.38%E -2.07%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.05%EV -4.56%E -1.79%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.61%EV -7.06%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-18 11:00
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.33%EV -5.38%E -2.07%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.79%EV -6.43%E -2.57%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.88%EV -4.44%E -1.22%K -1.68%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-18 11:29
picklebet_au🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.20%EV -5.38%E -2.07%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.65%EV -6.43%E -2.57%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-18 11:00
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -5.38%E -2.07%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -6.43%E -2.57%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 10:55
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -5.38%E -2.07%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -8.30%E -3.39%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-18 11:18
PlayUp🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.66%EV -5.38%E -2.07%K -3.36%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -8.30%E -3.39%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.49%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-18 11:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 36.20%EV -6.48%E -2.52%K -4.12%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -7.18%E -2.89%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 26.28%EV -7.32%E -2.07%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-18 10:04
Coolbet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.31%EV -7.20%E -2.82%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.31%EV -4.56%E -1.79%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -1.82%E -0.486%K -0.662%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-18 10:59
BetMGM🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.65%EV -7.20%E -2.82%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.39%EV -6.43%E -2.57%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 11:24
Bet Victor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -7.20%E -2.82%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.86%EV -8.30%E -3.39%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-18 11:04
NordicBet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.10%EV -8.30%E -3.29%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.14%EV -8.30%E -3.39%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-18 11:00
Betsson🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.10%EV -8.30%E -3.29%K -5.46%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.14%EV -8.30%E -3.39%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-18 11:00
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -9.02%E -3.61%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -6.43%E -2.57%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-18 11:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -9.02%E -3.61%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.11%EV -6.43%E -2.57%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-18 11:00
betano_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.09%EV -9.02%E -3.61%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.85%EV -8.30%E -3.39%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.06%EV -3.13%E -0.846%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-18 11:28
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -9.02%E -3.61%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.59%EV -8.30%E -3.39%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -5.75%E -1.60%K -2.21%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-18 10:59
LeoVegas🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -9.02%E -3.61%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.45%EV -8.30%E -3.39%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.85%EV -7.06%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-18 11:29
Bovada🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -9.02%E -3.61%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -8.30%E -3.39%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-18 11:02
theScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.57%EV -9.02%E -3.61%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.31%EV -8.30%E -3.39%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-18 11:00
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.02%E -3.61%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -8.30%E -3.39%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-18 11:04
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.02%E -3.61%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -8.30%E -3.39%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-18 11:04
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.02%E -3.61%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -8.30%E -3.39%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-18 11:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -9.02%E -3.61%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.03%EV -8.30%E -3.39%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-18 11:04
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -9.02%E -3.61%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -10.17%E -4.24%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-18 11:19
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -9.02%E -3.61%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -10.17%E -4.24%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-18 11:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.84%EV -9.02%E -3.61%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 37.81%EV -11.30%E -4.77%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-18 10:55
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.47%EV -9.02%E -3.61%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.25%EV -10.92%E -4.59%K -7.91%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.28%EV -14.91%E -4.59%K -6.63%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-18 11:03
Unibet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.82%EV -9.02%E -3.61%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.57%EV -17.66%E -8.03%K -14.71%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.61%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%14.9%2026-10-18 11:04
Unibet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -10.84%E -4.43%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -2.69%E -1.03%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -3.13%E -0.846%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-18 10:54
betPARX🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -10.84%E -4.43%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -2.69%E -1.03%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -3.13%E -0.846%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-18 10:54
Unibet (NL)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -10.84%E -4.43%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -2.69%E -1.03%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -3.13%E -0.846%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-18 10:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -10.84%E -4.43%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -2.69%E -1.03%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -3.13%E -0.846%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-18 10:54
Grosvenor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -10.84%E -4.43%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -2.69%E -1.03%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -3.13%E -0.846%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-18 10:54
Casumo🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -10.84%E -4.43%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -2.69%E -1.03%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -3.13%E -0.846%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-18 10:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -10.84%E -4.43%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -2.69%E -1.03%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -3.13%E -0.846%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-18 10:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -10.84%E -4.43%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -2.69%E -1.03%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -3.13%E -0.846%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-18 10:54
Winamax (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.62%EV -10.84%E -4.43%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.38%EV -10.17%E -4.24%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.00%EV -9.68%E -2.80%K -3.95%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-18 11:00
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -10.84%E -4.43%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -10.17%E -4.24%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-18 11:29
Neds🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -10.84%E -4.43%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -10.17%E -4.24%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-18 11:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.48%EV -10.84%E -4.43%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.24%EV -10.17%E -4.24%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -10.98%E -3.23%K -4.58%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-18 11:24
Betclic (FR)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 35.79%EV -10.84%E -4.43%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 37.80%EV -13.17%E -5.68%K -9.97%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 26.41%EV -13.08%E -3.94%K -5.64%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-18 11:04
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.80%EV -12.66%E -5.28%K -9.04%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.29%EV -6.43%E -2.57%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-18 11:24
NetBet (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 36.81%EV -12.66%E -5.28%K -9.04%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.81%EV -10.17%E -4.24%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.37%EV -12.29%E -3.67%K -5.23%G +0.000%13.2%2026-10-18 11:00
TABtouch🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.02%EV -13.39%E -5.63%K -9.70%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.49%EV -7.18%E -2.89%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.49%EV -7.06%E -1.99%K -2.77%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-18 10:55
BetRivers🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.88%EV -13.39%E -5.63%K -9.70%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.36%EV -7.18%E -2.89%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-18 10:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.88%EV -13.39%E -5.63%K -9.70%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.36%EV -7.18%E -2.89%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.76%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-18 10:49
Virgin Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.01%EV -14.48%E -6.16%K -10.73%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.46%EV -8.30%E -3.39%K -5.72%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.52%EV -8.37%E -2.39%K -3.35%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-18 10:54
LiveScore Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 37.96%EV -15.21%E -6.53%K -11.44%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.40%EV -9.05%E -3.72%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.64%EV -9.68%E -2.80%K -3.95%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-18 10:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 37.96%EV -15.21%E -6.53%K -11.44%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.40%EV -9.05%E -3.72%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.64%EV -9.68%E -2.80%K -3.95%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-18 10:55
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.81%2.62I 38.17%NM 38.00%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.20%0.5%2026-10-18 11:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.80I 35.71%NM 35.45%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.77%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.78%0.8%2026-10-18 11:29
Smarkets◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.68%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.86%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.45%0.8%2026-10-18 11:24
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.68%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.86%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.45%0.8%2026-10-18 11:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.68%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.86%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.45%0.8%2026-10-18 11:20
Kalshi◎2.78I 35.97%NM 35.24%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.27%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.48%2.1%2026-10-18 11:15