Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 1.98
assuming max odds 4.01
assuming max odds 3.75
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Arminia Bielefeld (Local): 49.45%; VfL Osnabrück (Visit): 24.43%; Draw: 26.12%. For VfL Osnabrück (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.09. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.01, with an expected value of -2.05%; they did not produce positive expected value.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.82%EV -2.08%E -1.05%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 4.01I 24.94%NM 24.11%EV -2.05%E -0.510%K -0.680%G +0.000% | 3.57I 28.01%NM 27.08%EV -6.76%E -1.89%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-10-18 11:24 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.67%EV -3.56%E -1.83%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.97%EV -7.18%E -1.89%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.36%EV -5.97%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-10-18 07:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.61%EV -3.56%E -1.83%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -4.73%E -1.21%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-10-18 11:29 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.94I 51.55%NM 48.93%EV -4.06%E -2.09%K -4.32%G +0.000% | 3.99I 25.06%NM 23.79%EV -2.53%E -0.635%K -0.848%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 27.28%EV -9.11%E -2.62%K -3.67%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-18 11:29 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 48.92%EV -4.55%E -2.36%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.85%EV -7.18%E -1.89%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -5.97%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-18 06:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 49.73%EV -5.05%E -2.63%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV -5.95%E -1.55%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.46%EV -2.06%E -0.548%K -0.747%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-10-18 11:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.69%EV -5.05%E -2.63%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -7.18%E -1.89%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-10-18 11:14 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 48.15%EV -5.05%E -2.63%K -5.49%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -8.40%E -2.24%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -11.20%E -3.29%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-10-18 11:24 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -5.54%E -2.90%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.11%EV -3.51%E -0.889%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.66I 27.32%NM 26.02%EV -4.41%E -1.20%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-18 09:04 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -5.54%E -2.90%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.11%EV -3.51%E -0.889%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 3.66I 27.32%NM 26.02%EV -4.41%E -1.20%K -1.66%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-18 09:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -5.54%E -2.90%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -7.18%E -1.89%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-18 07:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.89%EV -5.54%E -2.90%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.39%EV -8.40%E -2.24%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.72%EV -13.81%E -4.18%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-18 11:09 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.89%EV -5.54%E -2.90%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.39%EV -8.40%E -2.24%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.72%EV -13.81%E -4.18%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-18 11:19 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.89%EV -5.54%E -2.90%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.39%EV -8.40%E -2.24%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.72%EV -13.81%E -4.18%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-18 11:09 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 47.89%EV -5.54%E -2.90%K -6.09%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.39%EV -8.40%E -2.24%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.72%EV -13.81%E -4.18%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-18 11:09 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.66%EV -6.04%E -3.18%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.83%EV -7.18%E -1.89%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.50%EV -3.36%E -0.908%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-18 11:20 |
| picklebet_au🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.63%EV -6.04%E -3.18%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -4.73%E -1.21%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.19%EV -5.97%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-18 08:35 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.99%EV -6.04%E -3.18%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -9.62%E -2.60%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -5.97%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-10-18 11:04 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.29%EV -6.04%E -3.18%K -6.71%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.49%EV -12.06%E -3.35%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.22%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-18 11:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.94%EV -6.53%E -3.46%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.20%EV -4.73%E -1.21%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.86%EV -4.67%E -1.28%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-18 06:04 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.89%EV -7.03%E -3.74%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.05%EV -4.73%E -1.21%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -5.97%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-18 05:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.25%EV -7.03%E -3.74%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -9.62%E -2.60%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.72%EV -5.97%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-18 07:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 48.84%EV -7.03%E -3.74%K -7.98%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -7.18%E -1.89%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -11.20%E -3.29%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-10-18 11:28 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.77%EV -7.52%E -4.02%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 3.84I 26.04%NM 24.24%EV -6.20%E -1.61%K -2.18%G +0.000% | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.00%EV -6.50%E -1.81%K -2.52%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-18 06:55 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.55%EV -7.52%E -4.02%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.71%EV -8.40%E -2.24%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -5.97%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-10-18 11:28 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.39%EV -7.52%E -4.02%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -9.62%E -2.60%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -5.97%E -1.66%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-18 07:25 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 49.35%EV -7.52%E -4.02%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -7.18%E -1.89%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.37%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-18 11:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.26%EV -7.52%E -4.02%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.39%EV -9.62%E -2.60%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.35%EV -13.81%E -4.18%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-18 11:14 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.86I 53.76%NM 49.87%EV -8.02%E -4.31%K -9.32%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.07%EV -9.62%E -2.60%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.07%EV -3.36%E -0.908%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-10-18 05:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.48%EV -8.51%E -4.60%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.74%EV -9.62%E -2.60%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.78%EV -7.28%E -2.05%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-10-18 11:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -8.51%E -4.60%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.06%EV -7.18%E -1.89%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.51%EV -9.89%E -2.87%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-18 06:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -8.51%E -4.60%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.06%EV -7.18%E -1.89%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 26.51%EV -9.89%E -2.87%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-18 06:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.59%EV -8.51%E -4.60%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -12.06%E -3.35%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -11.20%E -3.29%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-18 10:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.59%EV -8.51%E -4.60%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -12.06%E -3.35%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -11.20%E -3.29%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-18 10:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.59%EV -8.51%E -4.60%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -12.06%E -3.35%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -11.20%E -3.29%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-18 10:54 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 48.59%EV -8.51%E -4.60%K -10.01%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.97%EV -12.06%E -3.35%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -11.20%E -3.29%K -4.67%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-10-18 10:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.84I 54.35%NM 51.09%EV -9.00%E -4.89%K -10.72%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.50%EV -2.29%E -0.573%K -0.763%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.41%EV -3.36%E -0.908%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-18 11:04 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.23%EV -9.50%E -5.19%K -11.44%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -2.29%E -0.573%K -0.763%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -3.36%E -0.908%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-18 11:04 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.23%EV -9.50%E -5.19%K -11.44%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -2.29%E -0.573%K -0.763%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -3.36%E -0.908%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-18 11:04 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.23%EV -9.50%E -5.19%K -11.44%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -2.29%E -0.573%K -0.763%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -3.36%E -0.908%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-18 11:04 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.23%EV -9.50%E -5.19%K -11.44%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -2.29%E -0.573%K -0.763%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -3.36%E -0.908%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-18 11:04 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.23%EV -9.50%E -5.19%K -11.44%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -2.29%E -0.573%K -0.763%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -3.36%E -0.908%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-18 11:04 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.23%EV -9.50%E -5.19%K -11.44%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -2.29%E -0.573%K -0.763%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -3.36%E -0.908%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-18 11:04 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.23%EV -9.50%E -5.19%K -11.44%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -2.29%E -0.573%K -0.763%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.34%EV -3.36%E -0.908%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-18 11:04 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 48.48%EV -9.50%E -5.19%K -11.44%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.64%EV -12.06%E -3.35%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.88%EV -13.81%E -4.18%K -6.00%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-10-18 11:03 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 49.65%EV -10.98%E -6.10%K -13.73%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.17%EV -13.28%E -3.74%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.17%EV -7.28%E -2.05%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-18 05:59 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 50.92%EV -11.97%E -6.73%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.54%EV -5.95%E -1.55%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.53%EV -7.28%E -2.05%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-18 11:05 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.78I 56.18%NM 49.53%EV -11.97%E -6.73%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.15%EV -10.84%E -2.97%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 26.32%EV -12.50%E -3.73%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-10-18 10:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 50.72%EV -12.47%E -7.04%K -16.19%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.63%EV -7.18%E -1.89%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.65%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-10-18 11:04 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 50.72%EV -12.47%E -7.04%K -16.19%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.63%EV -7.18%E -1.89%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.65%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 11.4% | 2026-10-18 11:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 49.62%EV -12.47%E -7.04%K -16.19%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.40%EV -12.06%E -3.35%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 3.38I 29.59%NM 25.98%EV -11.72%E -3.47%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-10-18 11:04 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 50.86%EV -12.96%E -7.36%K -17.05%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.56%EV -7.18%E -1.89%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -8.59%E -2.45%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-10-18 11:04 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 50.80%EV -13.95%E -8.02%K -18.85%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.57%EV -8.40%E -2.24%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.62%EV -9.89%E -2.87%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-10-18 11:04 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 50.80%EV -13.95%E -8.02%K -18.85%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.57%EV -8.40%E -2.24%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.62%EV -9.89%E -2.87%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-10-18 11:04 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 51.06%EV -15.93%E -9.37%K -22.75%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 23.78%EV -10.84%E -2.97%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.16%EV -9.89%E -2.87%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 15.2% | 2026-10-18 11:04 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.23% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.25% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.52% | 0.6% | 2026-10-18 11:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.23% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.25% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.52% | 0.6% | 2026-10-18 11:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.23% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.25% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.52% | 0.6% | 2026-10-18 11:20 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.23% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 24.25% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.52% | 0.6% | 2026-10-18 11:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.76% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.62% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.62% | 1.5% | 2026-10-18 11:15 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.01% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49% | 2.0% | 2026-10-18 11:04 |