Language:English
1. FC Nürnberg v VfL Wolfsburg
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
1. FC Nürnberg (Local)
Prediction 39.72%2.52fair odd
EV -1.51%
Edge -0.607%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.48
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.82%39.56%39.81%42.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.362.382.4848.78%42.42%42.02%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
VfL Wolfsburg (Visit)
Prediction 35.42%2.82fair odd
EV -2.59%
Edge -0.940%
Kelly -1.48%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.98%35.59%35.35%37.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.552.552.7542.55%39.14%39.22%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 24.86%4.02fair odd
EV -0.554%
Edge -0.139%
Kelly -0.185%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.74%24.85%24.84%26.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.703.704.0028.57%27.02%27.03%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: 1. FC Nürnberg (Local): 39.72%; VfL Wolfsburg (Visit): 35.42%; Draw: 24.86%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.02. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.00, with an expected value of -0.554%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (53 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -1.51%E -0.607%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -12.15%E -4.90%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%EV -4.28%E -1.11%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-10 18:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -1.51%E -0.607%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -12.15%E -4.90%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%EV -4.28%E -1.11%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-10 18:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -1.51%E -0.607%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -12.15%E -4.90%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%EV -4.28%E -1.11%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-10 18:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -1.51%E -0.607%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -12.15%E -4.90%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%EV -4.28%E -1.11%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-10 18:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -1.51%E -0.607%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -12.15%E -4.90%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%EV -4.28%E -1.11%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-10 18:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -1.51%E -0.607%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -12.15%E -4.90%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%EV -4.28%E -1.11%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-10 18:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -1.51%E -0.607%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -12.15%E -4.90%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%EV -4.28%E -1.11%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-10 18:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -1.51%E -0.607%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 2.48I 40.32%NM 37.82%EV -12.15%E -4.90%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%EV -4.28%E -1.11%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-10 18:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.49%EV -2.70%E -1.10%K -1.86%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.18%EV -2.59%E -0.940%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.82I 26.18%NM 25.33%EV -5.03%E -1.32%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-10-10 18:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.63%EV -4.68%E -1.95%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -7.90%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV -0.554%E -0.139%K -0.185%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-10-10 18:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.41%EV -4.68%E -1.95%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.03%EV -4.36%E -1.61%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.56%EV -8.01%E -2.17%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-10 17:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -4.68%E -1.95%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.89%EV -7.90%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -8.01%E -2.17%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-10 18:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.88%EV -4.68%E -1.95%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.89%EV -7.90%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.22%EV -8.01%E -2.17%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-10-10 18:25 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.59%EV -4.68%E -1.95%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.04%EV -11.44%E -4.58%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -5.53%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-10 18:25 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.59%EV -4.68%E -1.95%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.04%EV -11.44%E -4.58%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -5.53%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-10 18:25 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.39I 41.84%NM 39.75%EV -5.08%E -2.13%K -3.66%G +0.000% | 2.69I 37.17%NM 35.32%EV -4.71%E -1.75%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 3.81I 26.25%NM 24.93%EV -5.28%E -1.39%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-10-10 18:25 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.00%EV -5.48%E -2.30%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 34.75%EV -2.94%E -1.07%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.77I 26.53%NM 25.25%EV -6.27%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-10 17:45 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.00%EV -5.48%E -2.30%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 34.75%EV -2.94%E -1.07%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.77I 26.53%NM 25.25%EV -6.27%E -1.66%K -2.26%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-10-10 17:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.74%EV -5.48%E -2.30%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.03%EV -4.36%E -1.61%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -6.77%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-10 17:39 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.34%EV -5.48%E -2.30%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.01%EV -7.90%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.64%EV -5.53%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-10 18:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.34%EV -5.48%E -2.30%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.01%EV -7.90%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.64%EV -5.53%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-10-10 18:23 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -5.48%E -2.30%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.80%EV -11.44%E -4.58%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.54%EV -6.77%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-10-10 15:39 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.53%EV -5.48%E -2.30%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.27%EV -7.90%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.20%EV -12.98%E -3.71%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-10 18:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.53%EV -5.48%E -2.30%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.27%EV -7.90%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.20%EV -12.98%E -3.71%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-10 18:04 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.53%EV -5.48%E -2.30%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.27%EV -7.90%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.20%EV -12.98%E -3.71%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-10 18:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 38.53%EV -5.48%E -2.30%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.27%EV -7.90%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.20%EV -12.98%E -3.71%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-10 18:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.95%EV -5.48%E -2.30%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.64%EV -14.98%E -6.24%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.41%EV -8.01%E -2.17%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-10-10 18:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.83%EV -5.48%E -2.30%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -14.98%E -6.24%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.66%EV -9.26%E -2.54%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-10 17:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.83%EV -5.48%E -2.30%K -3.97%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -14.98%E -6.24%K -10.70%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.66%EV -9.26%E -2.54%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-10-10 18:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 39.94%EV -6.27%E -2.66%K -4.61%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.57%EV -6.13%E -2.31%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.48%EV -4.28%E -1.11%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-10-10 17:45 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.18%EV -6.67%E -2.84%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.97%EV -4.36%E -1.61%K -2.56%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.85%EV -5.53%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-10-10 18:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.92%EV -6.67%E -2.84%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.40%EV -6.13%E -2.31%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -5.53%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-10-10 17:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.25%EV -6.67%E -2.84%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.48%EV -7.90%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.27%EV -9.26%E -2.54%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-10-10 18:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.98%EV -6.67%E -2.84%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.92%EV -9.67%E -3.79%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.10%EV -9.26%E -2.54%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-10 18:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.01%EV -6.67%E -2.84%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.53%EV -15.69%E -6.59%K -11.37%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 24.47%EV -9.26%E -2.54%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-10 18:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.33I 42.92%NM 37.90%EV -7.46%E -3.20%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 37.57%EV -16.76%E -7.13%K -12.41%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.53%EV -10.50%E -2.92%K -4.04%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-10-10 18:01 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.43%EV -8.66%E -3.76%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV -6.13%E -2.31%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -5.53%E -1.45%K -1.97%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-10 17:40 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -8.66%E -3.76%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.75%EV -7.90%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.83%EV -3.04%E -0.780%K -1.05%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-10 17:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -8.66%E -3.76%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.41%EV -7.90%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -6.77%E -1.81%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-10 17:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90%EV -8.66%E -3.76%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.30%EV -7.90%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -8.01%E -2.17%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-10 17:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.87%EV -8.66%E -3.76%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.00%EV -7.19%E -2.74%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.13%EV -9.26%E -2.54%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-10 17:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.87%EV -8.66%E -3.76%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.00%EV -7.19%E -2.74%K -4.44%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.13%EV -9.26%E -2.54%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-10 17:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.80%EV -8.66%E -3.76%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%EV -11.44%E -4.58%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -12.98%E -3.71%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-10 18:25 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.80%EV -8.66%E -3.76%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%EV -11.44%E -4.58%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -12.98%E -3.71%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-10 18:14 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.80%EV -8.66%E -3.76%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%EV -11.44%E -4.58%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -12.98%E -3.71%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-10 18:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.80%EV -8.66%E -3.76%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%EV -11.44%E -4.58%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -12.98%E -3.71%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-10 18:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.80%EV -8.66%E -3.76%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%EV -11.44%E -4.58%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -12.98%E -3.71%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-10 18:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.80%EV -8.66%E -3.76%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.70%EV -11.44%E -4.58%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -12.98%E -3.71%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-10-10 18:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 39.87%EV -10.64%E -4.73%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.50%EV -7.90%E -3.04%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.63%EV -12.98%E -3.71%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-10-10 17:40 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 39.19%EV -11.83%E -5.33%K -9.70%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 35.95%EV -14.28%E -5.90%K -10.05%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 24.86%EV -12.98%E -3.71%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 14.9% | 2026-10-10 18:25 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 40.41%EV -12.63%E -5.74%K -10.52%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.56%EV -11.44%E -4.58%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.03%EV -8.01%E -2.17%K -2.97%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-10-10 17:40 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 40.33%EV -13.82%E -6.37%K -11.81%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 35.01%EV -11.44%E -4.58%K -7.63%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 24.66%EV -11.74%E -3.31%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-10-10 18:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 42.27%EV -18.58%E -9.07%K -17.70%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 33.98%EV -9.67%E -3.79%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 23.74%EV -9.26%E -2.54%K -3.49%G +0.000% | 15.4% | 2026-10-10 18:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.13% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 36.02% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.85% | 0.6% | 2026-10-10 18:25 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.13% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 36.02% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.85% | 0.6% | 2026-10-10 18:25 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.01% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 35.90% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.09% | 0.9% | 2026-10-10 18:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 39.01% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 35.90% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.09% | 0.9% | 2026-10-10 18:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.62% | 2.78I 35.97%NM 35.63% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.76% | 1.0% | 2026-10-10 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.54I 39.37%NM 38.91% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.07% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.02% | 1.2% | 2026-10-10 18:25 |