The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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1. FC Nürnberg v 1. FC Kaiserslautern

Kickoff: 2026-10-24 18:30 UTC

Final: 1. FC Nürnberg 0–1 1. FC Kaiserslautern

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

56 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Nürnberg (Local)

Prediction 44.81%2.23fair odd
EV -2.76%
Edge -1.27%
Kelly -2.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.74%44.88%44.78%46.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.892.042.052.1752.91%49.09%48.78%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1. FC Kaiserslautern (Visit)

Prediction 29.80%3.36fair odd
EV -1.65%
Edge -0.500%
Kelly -0.717%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.42%29.76%29.78%30.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.123.103.3033.90%32.07%32.26%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.38%3.94fair odd
EV -0.999%
Edge -0.256%
Kelly -0.345%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.43%25.36%25.45%26.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.643.603.9029.41%27.49%27.78%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: 1. FC Nürnberg (Local): 44.81%; 1. FC Kaiserslautern (Visit): 29.80%; Draw: 25.38%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.94. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.90, with an expected value of -0.999%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (56 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.59%EV -2.76%E -1.27%K -2.36%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.68%EV -2.84%E -0.872%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.73%EV -4.55%E -1.21%K -1.65%G +0.000%3.4%2026-10-24 18:25
Coolbet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.97%EV -5.00%E -2.36%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.27%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.76%EV -2.27%E -0.589%K -0.796%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-24 17:35
Codere (IT)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.52%EV -5.00%E -2.36%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.97%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -6.08%E -1.64%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-24 18:05
SportsBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -5.00%E -2.36%K -4.46%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.75%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -8.61%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-24 17:40
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.27%EV -5.89%E -2.81%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.71%EV -4.63%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.02%EV -3.54%E -0.931%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-24 10:39
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.97%EV -5.89%E -2.81%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -4.63%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%EV -6.08%E -1.64%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-24 17:31
picklebet_au🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.97%EV -5.89%E -2.81%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -4.63%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%EV -6.08%E -1.64%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-24 18:05
BetMGM🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.97%EV -5.89%E -2.81%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.51%EV -4.63%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.52%EV -6.08%E -1.64%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-24 15:55
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.76%EV -5.89%E -2.81%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.84%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -6.08%E -1.64%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-24 18:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.54%EV -5.89%E -2.81%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.17%EV -7.61%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.28%EV -6.08%E -1.64%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-24 18:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -5.89%E -2.81%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.52%EV -9.10%E -2.98%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.16%EV -6.08%E -1.64%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-24 18:25
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.23%EV -5.89%E -2.81%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.96%EV -7.61%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -8.61%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-24 17:31
PlayUp🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.80%EV -5.89%E -2.81%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.66%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.55%EV -8.61%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-24 18:25
1xBet🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 44.73%EV -6.34%E -3.03%K -5.82%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 29.87%EV -6.72%E -2.15%K -3.15%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.40%EV -6.58%E -1.79%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-24 11:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.80%EV -6.79%E -3.26%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.77%EV -4.63%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.43%EV -0.999%E -0.256%K -0.345%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-24 12:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.80%EV -6.79%E -3.26%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.77%EV -4.63%E -1.45%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.43%EV -0.999%E -0.256%K -0.345%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-24 12:50
LeoVegas🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.03%EV -6.79%E -3.26%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.53%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.44%EV -8.61%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-24 18:15
NordicBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.93%EV -6.79%E -3.26%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.96%EV -9.10%E -2.98%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.11%EV -11.15%E -3.19%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-24 18:05
Betsson🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.93%EV -6.79%E -3.26%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.96%EV -9.10%E -2.98%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.11%EV -11.15%E -3.19%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-24 18:05
Marathon Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 44.92%EV -7.24%E -3.50%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.81%EV -7.01%E -2.25%K -3.31%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.27%EV -6.58%E -1.79%K -2.46%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-24 11:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.14%EV -8.14%E -3.97%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -7.61%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -6.08%E -1.64%K -2.25%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-24 18:25
betano_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.14%EV -8.14%E -3.97%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -7.61%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -6.08%E -1.64%K -2.25%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-24 18:25
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.14%EV -8.14%E -3.97%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.85%EV -7.61%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.01%EV -6.08%E -1.64%K -2.25%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-24 18:24
Winamax (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.07%EV -8.14%E -3.97%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.29%EV -9.10%E -2.98%K -4.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.64%EV -4.81%E -1.28%K -1.75%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-24 18:05
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -8.14%E -3.97%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -7.61%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -8.61%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 18:05
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.67%EV -8.14%E -3.97%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.54%EV -7.61%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.79%EV -9.88%E -2.78%K -3.88%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-24 17:58
888sport🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -8.14%E -3.97%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -7.61%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -11.15%E -3.19%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-24 17:25
William Hill🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -8.14%E -3.97%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -7.61%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -11.15%E -3.19%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-24 17:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -8.14%E -3.97%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -7.61%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -11.15%E -3.19%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-24 17:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.50%EV -8.14%E -3.97%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.43%EV -7.61%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.07%EV -11.15%E -3.19%K -4.46%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-24 17:24
betfred_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.39%EV -8.14%E -3.97%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.33%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.28%EV -8.61%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-24 12:30
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -8.14%E -3.97%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -11.15%E -3.19%K -4.46%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-24 17:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.07%EV -8.14%E -3.97%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.12%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -11.15%E -3.19%K -4.46%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-24 18:15
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.74%EV -8.14%E -3.97%K -7.75%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.37%EV -13.69%E -4.03%K -5.70%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-24 17:40
Unibet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.90%EV -10.38%E -5.19%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -1.65%E -0.500%K -0.717%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -3.54%E -0.931%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 17:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.90%EV -10.38%E -5.19%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -1.65%E -0.500%K -0.717%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -3.54%E -0.931%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 17:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.90%EV -10.38%E -5.19%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -1.65%E -0.500%K -0.717%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -3.54%E -0.931%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 17:55
Casumo🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.90%EV -10.38%E -5.19%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -1.65%E -0.500%K -0.717%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -3.54%E -0.931%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 17:55
Grosvenor🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.90%EV -10.38%E -5.19%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -1.65%E -0.500%K -0.717%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -3.54%E -0.931%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 17:55
ATG (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.90%EV -10.38%E -5.19%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -1.65%E -0.500%K -0.717%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -3.54%E -0.931%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 17:55
betPARX🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.90%EV -10.38%E -5.19%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -1.65%E -0.500%K -0.717%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -3.54%E -0.931%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 17:55
Svenska Spel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.90%EV -10.38%E -5.19%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -1.65%E -0.500%K -0.717%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -3.54%E -0.931%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-24 17:55
Coral🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -10.38%E -5.19%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.15%E -3.19%K -4.46%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-24 10:40
Neds🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -10.38%E -5.19%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.15%E -3.19%K -4.46%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-24 10:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -10.38%E -5.19%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.15%E -3.19%K -4.46%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-24 10:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -10.38%E -5.19%K -10.38%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.79%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.53%EV -11.15%E -3.19%K -4.46%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-24 10:40
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.62%EV -10.38%E -5.19%K -10.38%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.25%EV -12.08%E -4.10%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.14%EV -9.88%E -2.78%K -3.88%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-24 18:05
NetBet (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 44.76%EV -11.72%E -5.95%K -12.08%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 29.69%EV -11.48%E -3.87%K -5.83%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.56%EV -12.42%E -3.60%K -5.07%G +0.000%13.4%2026-10-24 18:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 44.57%EV -11.72%E -5.95%K -12.08%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.76%EV -12.08%E -4.10%K -6.20%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 25.67%EV -13.18%E -3.85%K -5.45%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-24 18:02
TABtouch🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 46.57%EV -13.06%E -6.73%K -13.90%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.68%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.75%EV -7.35%E -2.01%K -2.77%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-24 17:55
BetRivers🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.54%EV -13.51%E -7.00%K -14.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.51%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -8.61%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-24 17:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.54%EV -13.51%E -7.00%K -14.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.51%EV -6.12%E -1.94%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -8.61%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-24 17:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.32%EV -13.51%E -7.00%K -14.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.84%EV -7.61%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.84%EV -8.61%E -2.39%K -3.31%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-24 17:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.42%EV -14.41%E -7.54%K -15.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -7.61%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.98%EV -9.88%E -2.78%K -3.88%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-24 17:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.42%EV -14.41%E -7.54%K -15.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.60%EV -7.61%E -2.45%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.98%EV -9.88%E -2.78%K -3.88%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-24 17:55
Unibet (FR)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 46.08%EV -15.31%E -8.10%K -17.20%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.03%EV -10.59%E -3.53%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.88%EV -11.15%E -3.19%K -4.46%G +0.000%14.8%2026-10-24 18:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.28%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10%0.8%2026-10-24 18:15
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.28%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10%0.8%2026-10-24 18:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.28%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10%0.8%2026-10-24 18:15
Matchbook◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.28%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.10%0.8%2026-10-24 18:25
Kalshi◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.58%3.33I 30.03%NM 29.72%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.70%1.0%2026-10-24 18:10
Smarkets◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.51%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.49%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.00%1.2%2026-10-24 18:10