Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

1. FC Kaiserslautern v Karlsruher SC

Inicio: 2026-08-15 18:30 UTC

Final: 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0–0 Karlsruher SC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

56 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

1. FC Kaiserslautern (Local)

Predicción 47.22%2.12momio equitativo
EV -2.73%
Ventaja -1.33%
Kelly -2.58%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.06

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
45.74%47.32%47.18%49.71%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.801.931.952.0655.56%51.77%51.28%48.54%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Karlsruher SC (Visitante)

Predicción 27.91%3.58momio equitativo
EV -0.929%
Ventaja -0.262%
Kelly -0.364%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.33%27.83%27.94%28.87%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.103.343.313.5532.26%29.94%30.17%28.17%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Empate

Predicción 24.87%4.02momio equitativo
EV -2.99%
Ventaja -0.767%
Kelly -1.03%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
23.96%24.85%24.88%25.48%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
3.503.723.753.9028.57%26.87%26.67%25.64%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (Local): 47.22%; Karlsruher SC (Visitante): 27.91%; Empate: 24.87%. Para Karlsruher SC (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.58. Ningún corredor elegible ofreció momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel: los mejores fueron 3.55, con un valor esperado de -0.929%; no produjeron valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (56 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.96%EV -2.73%E -1.33%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.04%EV -3.72%E -1.08%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 25.00%EV -3.74%E -0.965%K -1.30%G +0.000%3.4%2026-08-15 18:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.67%EV -3.67%E -1.80%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.59%EV -7.07%E -2.12%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.73%EV -4.23%E -1.10%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 07:39
BetOnline.ag🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 46.67%EV -3.67%E -1.80%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.59%EV -7.07%E -2.12%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.73%EV -4.23%E -1.10%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-15 07:44
Codere (IT)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.69%EV -4.62%E -2.29%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.16%EV -6.51%E -1.94%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -6.72%E -1.79%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 18:00
SportsBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.49%EV -4.62%E -2.29%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -7.91%E -2.40%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.05%EV -6.72%E -1.79%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-15 18:20
Coolbet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.44%EV -5.56%E -2.78%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.91%EV -5.12%E -1.50%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.65%EV -4.23%E -1.10%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-15 17:54
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.90%EV -5.56%E -2.78%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV -7.91%E -2.40%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.68%EV -5.48%E -1.44%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-15 17:54
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.84%EV -5.56%E -2.78%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.83%EV -9.30%E -2.86%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.33%EV -4.23%E -1.10%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 17:54
Unibet (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.74%EV -5.56%E -2.78%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.33%EV -7.91%E -2.40%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -6.72%E -1.79%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 17:54
theScore Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.23%EV -5.56%E -2.78%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.45%EV -9.30%E -2.86%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.33%EV -9.21%E -2.52%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-15 17:55
PlayUp🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.68%EV -6.51%E -3.29%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.01%EV -7.91%E -2.40%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.32%EV -9.21%E -2.52%K -3.47%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-15 18:25
Betsson🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.31%EV -6.51%E -3.29%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -9.30%E -2.86%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.47%EV -10.45%E -2.90%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-15 17:54
NordicBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.31%EV -6.51%E -3.29%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.22%EV -9.30%E -2.86%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.47%EV -10.45%E -2.90%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-15 17:54
1xBet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.25%EV -6.98%E -3.54%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.53I 28.33%NM 26.93%EV -1.49%E -0.421%K -0.588%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 24.82%EV -4.73%E -1.24%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-15 18:24
Suprabets🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.46%EV -6.98%E -3.54%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 27.74%EV -5.95%E -1.77%K -2.51%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 24.80%EV -6.22%E -1.65%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 18:20
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.11%EV -7.92%E -4.06%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.20%EV -3.72%E -1.08%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.69%EV -5.48%E -1.44%K -1.96%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-15 18:24
Fanatics🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -7.92%E -4.06%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -5.12%E -1.50%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -5.48%E -1.44%K -1.96%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 18:19
betano_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -7.92%E -4.06%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -5.12%E -1.50%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -6.72%E -1.79%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 18:24
Bet Victor🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -7.92%E -4.06%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -5.12%E -1.50%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -6.72%E -1.79%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-15 18:23
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.32%EV -7.92%E -4.06%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -9.30%E -2.86%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -5.48%E -1.44%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-15 08:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.32%EV -7.92%E -4.06%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.39%EV -9.30%E -2.86%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.28%EV -5.48%E -1.44%K -1.96%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-15 08:54
LeoVegas🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -7.92%E -4.06%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -10.70%E -3.34%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -6.72%E -1.79%K -2.44%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 18:04
betfred_uk🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.96%EV -7.92%E -4.06%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -10.70%E -3.34%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.42%EV -6.72%E -1.79%K -2.44%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-15 08:59
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -7.92%E -4.06%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -7.91%E -2.40%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -10.45%E -2.90%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-15 17:55
William Hill🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -7.92%E -4.06%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -7.91%E -2.40%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -10.45%E -2.90%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-15 17:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -7.92%E -4.06%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -7.91%E -2.40%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -10.45%E -2.90%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-15 17:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.89%EV -7.92%E -4.06%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -7.91%E -2.40%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.40%EV -10.45%E -2.90%K -4.02%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-15 17:54
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.49%EV -7.92%E -4.06%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -10.70%E -3.34%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -10.45%E -2.90%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-15 17:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.49%EV -7.92%E -4.06%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.33%EV -10.70%E -3.34%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.18%EV -10.45%E -2.90%K -4.02%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-15 18:19
Sky Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -7.92%E -4.06%K -8.34%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -13.49%E -4.35%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -12.94%E -3.70%K -5.18%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-15 18:19
Marathon Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.05%EV -8.40%E -4.33%K -8.93%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.02%EV -3.72%E -1.08%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.93%EV -6.97%E -1.86%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-15 18:24
Tipico (DE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.87%EV -8.87%E -4.60%K -9.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.95%EV -2.32%E -0.664%K -0.930%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -2.99%E -0.767%K -1.03%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-15 18:25
Betclic (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.21%EV -9.34%E -4.87%K -10.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -7.91%E -2.40%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 25.32%EV -10.95%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-15 18:25
Winamax (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.61%EV -9.34%E -4.87%K -10.15%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.87%EV -13.49%E -4.35%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.52%EV -9.21%E -2.52%K -3.47%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-15 17:54
Bovada🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.12%EV -9.81%E -5.14%K -10.78%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -5.12%E -1.50%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -7.96%E -2.15%K -2.95%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-15 18:23
Unibet (FR)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.17%EV -9.81%E -5.14%K -10.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.15%EV -10.70%E -3.34%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.68%EV -9.21%E -2.52%K -3.47%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-15 18:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.67%EV -9.81%E -5.14%K -10.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.86%EV -10.70%E -3.34%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -12.94%E -3.70%K -5.18%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-15 17:24
Neds🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.67%EV -9.81%E -5.14%K -10.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.86%EV -10.70%E -3.34%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -12.94%E -3.70%K -5.18%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-15 17:24
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.67%EV -9.81%E -5.14%K -10.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.86%EV -10.70%E -3.34%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -12.94%E -3.70%K -5.18%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-15 17:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.67%EV -9.81%E -5.14%K -10.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.86%EV -10.70%E -3.34%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -12.94%E -3.70%K -5.18%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-15 17:24
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.67%EV -9.81%E -5.14%K -10.78%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.86%EV -10.70%E -3.34%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.47%EV -12.94%E -3.70%K -5.18%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-15 17:24
Unibet🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.58%EV -10.76%E -5.69%K -12.09%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.40%EV -0.929%E -0.262%K -0.364%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -2.99%E -0.767%K -1.03%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-15 17:49
Unibet (NL)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.71%EV -11.23%E -5.97%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.33%EV -0.929%E -0.262%K -0.364%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -2.99%E -0.767%K -1.03%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 17:49
Casumo🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.71%EV -11.23%E -5.97%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.33%EV -0.929%E -0.262%K -0.364%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -2.99%E -0.767%K -1.03%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 17:49
Unibet (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.71%EV -11.23%E -5.97%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.33%EV -0.929%E -0.262%K -0.364%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -2.99%E -0.767%K -1.03%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 17:49
Grosvenor🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.71%EV -11.23%E -5.97%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.33%EV -0.929%E -0.262%K -0.364%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -2.99%E -0.767%K -1.03%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 17:49
betPARX🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.71%EV -11.23%E -5.97%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.33%EV -0.929%E -0.262%K -0.364%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -2.99%E -0.767%K -1.03%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 17:50
ATG (SE)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.71%EV -11.23%E -5.97%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.33%EV -0.929%E -0.262%K -0.364%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -2.99%E -0.767%K -1.03%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 17:49
Svenska Spel🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.71%EV -11.23%E -5.97%K -12.76%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.33%EV -0.929%E -0.262%K -0.364%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.96%EV -2.99%E -0.767%K -1.03%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-15 17:50
NetBet (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 47.64%EV -12.65%E -6.84%K -14.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.54%EV -10.70%E -3.34%K -4.86%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.82%EV -11.70%E -3.29%K -4.59%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-15 18:25
BetRivers🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.35%EV -13.59%E -7.43%K -16.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.56%EV -5.12%E -1.50%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.08%EV -6.72%E -1.79%K -2.44%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 17:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.35%EV -13.59%E -7.43%K -16.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.56%EV -5.12%E -1.50%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.08%EV -6.72%E -1.79%K -2.44%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 17:49
TABtouch🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.35%EV -13.59%E -7.43%K -16.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.56%EV -5.12%E -1.50%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.08%EV -6.72%E -1.79%K -2.44%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-15 17:49
PMU (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.25%EV -15.01%E -8.34%K -18.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.46%EV -6.51%E -1.94%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.29%EV -9.21%E -2.52%K -3.47%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-15 17:34
LiveScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.25%EV -15.01%E -8.34%K -18.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.46%EV -6.51%E -1.94%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.29%EV -9.21%E -2.52%K -3.47%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-15 17:34
Virgin Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.25%EV -15.01%E -8.34%K -18.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.46%EV -6.51%E -1.94%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.29%EV -9.21%E -2.52%K -3.47%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-15 17:34
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎2.08I 48.08%NM 47.85%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.27%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.88%0.5%2026-08-15 18:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.25%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.95%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%0.8%2026-08-15 18:19
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.25%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.95%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%0.8%2026-08-15 18:19
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 47.25%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.95%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.80%0.8%2026-08-15 18:19
Smarkets◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.15%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.29%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.56%1.8%2026-08-15 18:25
Kalshi◎2.04I 49.02%NM 48.04%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.45%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.50%2.0%2026-08-15 18:25