Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Heidenheim v 1. FC Kaiserslautern

Kickoff: 2026-10-09 16:30 UTC

Final: 1. FC Heidenheim 0–0 1. FC Kaiserslautern

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

55 sportsbooks (19 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Heidenheim (Local)

Prediction 49.80%2.01fair odd
EV -3.88%
Edge -2.01%
Kelly -4.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.93

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.30%49.89%49.65%51.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.731.851.851.9357.80%54.00%54.05%51.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

1. FC Kaiserslautern (Visit)

Prediction 25.00%4.00fair odd
EV +11.26%
Edge +2.53%
Kelly +3.26%
Growth +0.367%

assuming max odds 4.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.39%24.75%25.03%26.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.663.604.4530.30%27.36%27.78%22.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.20%3.97fair odd
EV +0.788%
Edge +0.197%
Kelly +0.263%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.72%25.36%25.31%28.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.293.663.654.0030.40%27.34%27.40%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: 1. FC Heidenheim (Local): 49.80%; 1. FC Kaiserslautern (Visit): 25.00%; Draw: 25.20%. For 1. FC Kaiserslautern (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.00. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.26%.

Sportsbook Odds (55 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.62%EV -6.37%E -3.39%K -7.24%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.39%EV +11.26%E +2.53%K +3.26%G +0.367%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.99%EV -14.33%E -4.21%K -5.97%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-04 18:10
LowVig.ag🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.62%EV -6.37%E -3.39%K -7.24%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.39%EV +11.26%E +2.53%K +3.26%G +0.367%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.99%EV -14.33%E -4.21%K -5.97%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-04 18:35
Pinnacle🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.64%EV -6.37%E -3.39%K -7.24%G +0.000%4.44I 22.52%NM 21.44%EV +11.01%E +2.48%K +3.20%G +0.352%3.41I 29.33%NM 27.92%EV -14.08%E -4.13%K -5.84%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-22 09:13
Suprabets🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.32%EV -8.37%E -4.55%K -9.96%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.53%EV +7.51%E +1.75%K +2.28%G +0.171%3.29I 30.40%NM 28.14%EV -17.10%E -5.20%K -7.47%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-26 10:14
BetMGM🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.13%EV -7.87%E -4.25%K -9.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.65%EV +0.008%E +0.002%K +0.003%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -5.51%E -1.47%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-05 04:00
Tipico (DE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.96%EV -7.87%E -4.25%K -9.26%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV +0.008%E +0.002%K +0.003%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.48%EV -6.77%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-22 14:09
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.42%EV -6.87%E -3.67%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.40%EV -1.24%E -0.314%K -0.421%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -14.33%E -4.21%K -5.97%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-23 14:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.50%EV -5.38%E -2.83%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.08%EV -6.24%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -6.77%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-04 16:33
Codere (IT)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.46%EV -5.88%E -3.11%K -6.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -6.24%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.61%EV -8.03%E -2.20%K -3.03%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-04 16:35
Marathon Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 51.10%EV -9.36%E -5.14%K -11.42%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.80%EV -6.24%E -1.66%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.10%EV -2.74%E -0.710%K -0.958%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-05 14:30
1xBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.80%EV -8.37%E -4.55%K -9.96%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 24.99%EV -6.49%E -1.74%K -2.37%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.21%EV -2.74%E -0.710%K -0.958%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-05 14:30
SportsBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -7.87%E -4.25%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -7.49%E -2.03%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -1.73%E -0.444%K -0.597%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-04 08:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -7.87%E -4.25%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -7.49%E -2.03%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -1.73%E -0.444%K -0.597%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-05 07:09
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.92%EV -8.86%E -4.84%K -10.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.19%EV -7.49%E -2.03%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.89%EV -1.73%E -0.444%K -0.597%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-04 08:54
PlayUp🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.21%EV -6.87%E -3.67%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -7.49%E -2.03%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.92%EV -10.55%E -2.97%K -4.14%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-05 09:59
Bovada🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -8.86%E -4.84%K -10.68%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.86%EV -7.49%E -2.03%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.86%EV -6.77%E -1.83%K -2.51%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-05 04:00
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.30%EV -7.87%E -4.25%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -7.49%E -2.03%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -11.81%E -3.37%K -4.72%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-23 12:25
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.30%EV -7.87%E -4.25%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -7.49%E -2.03%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -11.81%E -3.37%K -4.72%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-23 12:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.98%EV -10.36%E -5.75%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%EV -7.49%E -2.03%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -11.81%E -3.37%K -4.72%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-05 04:04
Neds🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.98%EV -10.36%E -5.75%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%EV -7.49%E -2.03%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -11.81%E -3.37%K -4.72%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-05 04:00
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.98%EV -10.36%E -5.75%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%EV -7.49%E -2.03%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -11.81%E -3.37%K -4.72%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-05 03:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.98%EV -10.36%E -5.75%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.31%EV -7.49%E -2.03%K -2.78%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.70%EV -11.81%E -3.37%K -4.72%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-05 04:00
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.80%EV -4.88%E -2.55%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -9.99%E -2.78%K -3.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.78%EV +0.788%E +0.197%K +0.263%G +0.002%5.1%2026-10-03 02:25
Coolbet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.93%EV -5.38%E -2.83%K -5.98%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -9.99%E -2.78%K -3.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.72%EV +0.788%E +0.197%K +0.263%G +0.002%5.4%2026-10-04 08:50
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.71%EV -6.87%E -3.67%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.82%EV -9.99%E -2.78%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.46%EV -4.25%E -1.12%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-04 08:56
Betr (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.98%EV -7.87%E -4.25%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.69%EV -9.99%E -2.78%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.33%EV -4.25%E -1.12%K -1.52%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-04 08:50
Bet Victor🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -8.86%E -4.84%K -10.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -9.99%E -2.78%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -5.51%E -1.47%K -2.00%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-05 09:59
betano_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.09%EV -8.86%E -4.84%K -10.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.46%EV -9.99%E -2.78%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.44%EV -5.51%E -1.47%K -2.00%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-05 09:59
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -7.87%E -4.25%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -9.99%E -2.78%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -9.29%E -2.58%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-04 07:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -7.87%E -4.25%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -9.99%E -2.78%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -9.29%E -2.58%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-04 07:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -7.87%E -4.25%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -9.99%E -2.78%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -9.29%E -2.58%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-04 07:55
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -7.87%E -4.25%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -9.99%E -2.78%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.34%EV -9.29%E -2.58%K -3.57%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-04 08:00
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.67%EV -10.36%E -5.75%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.33%EV -9.99%E -2.78%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.00%EV -4.25%E -1.12%K -1.52%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-04 08:55
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.23%EV -8.86%E -4.84%K -10.68%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.03%EV -9.99%E -2.78%K -3.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.74%EV -11.81%E -3.37%K -4.72%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-03 14:40
LeoVegas🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.61%EV -7.87%E -4.25%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.33%EV -11.24%E -3.17%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.06%EV -13.07%E -3.79%K -5.33%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-23 16:00
NetBet (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 50.10%EV -13.84%E -8.00%K -18.96%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.41%EV -11.24%E -3.17%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.49%EV -14.33%E -4.21%K -5.97%G +0.000%15.4%2026-10-05 15:04
Unibet (NL)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.72%EV -3.88%E -2.01%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.86%EV -12.49%E -3.57%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -2.99%E -0.777%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-03 12:45
Grosvenor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.72%EV -3.88%E -2.01%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.86%EV -12.49%E -3.57%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -2.99%E -0.777%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-03 12:45
betPARX🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.72%EV -3.88%E -2.01%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.86%EV -12.49%E -3.57%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -2.99%E -0.777%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-03 12:45
Casumo🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.72%EV -3.88%E -2.01%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.86%EV -12.49%E -3.57%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -2.99%E -0.777%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-03 12:44
Unibet (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.72%EV -3.88%E -2.01%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.86%EV -12.49%E -3.57%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -2.99%E -0.777%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-03 12:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.72%EV -3.88%E -2.01%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.86%EV -12.49%E -3.57%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -2.99%E -0.777%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-03 12:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.72%EV -3.88%E -2.01%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.86%EV -12.49%E -3.57%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -2.99%E -0.777%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-03 12:45
Unibet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.72%EV -3.88%E -2.01%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.86%EV -12.49%E -3.57%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -2.99%E -0.777%K -1.05%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-03 12:45
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.73%EV -8.86%E -4.84%K -10.68%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -12.49%E -3.57%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -5.51%E -1.47%K -2.00%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-02 09:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.20%EV -9.36%E -5.14%K -11.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.58%EV -12.49%E -3.57%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.22%EV -10.55%E -2.97%K -4.14%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-04 00:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 49.28%EV -11.35%E -6.38%K -14.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.06%EV -12.49%E -3.57%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 25.65%EV -13.83%E -4.04%K -5.71%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-01 16:38
Unibet (FR)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 49.92%EV -13.84%E -8.00%K -18.96%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.68%EV -12.49%E -3.57%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.40%EV -14.33%E -4.21%K -5.97%G +0.000%15.8%2026-10-03 16:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 48.93%EV -10.36%E -5.75%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.90%EV -14.99%E -4.41%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.16%EV -11.81%E -3.37%K -4.72%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-04 00:34
TABtouch🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.30%EV -6.87%E -3.67%K -7.90%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.96%EV -16.24%E -4.85%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.74%EV -8.03%E -2.20%K -3.03%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-03 12:44
BetRivers🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.57%EV -7.87%E -4.25%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.82%EV -16.24%E -4.85%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.62%EV -8.03%E -2.20%K -3.03%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-03 12:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.57%EV -7.87%E -4.25%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.82%EV -16.24%E -4.85%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.62%EV -8.03%E -2.20%K -3.03%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-03 12:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.57%EV -7.87%E -4.25%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.82%EV -16.24%E -4.85%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.62%EV -8.03%E -2.20%K -3.03%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-03 12:44
LiveScore Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.57%EV -7.87%E -4.25%K -9.26%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.82%EV -16.24%E -4.85%K -6.91%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.62%EV -8.03%E -2.20%K -3.03%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-03 12:45
Sky Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 49.25%EV -12.85%E -7.34%K -17.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.12%EV -17.49%E -5.30%K -7.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.63%EV -11.81%E -3.37%K -4.72%G +0.000%16.0%2026-10-04 09:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.89I 52.91%NM 51.42%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.36%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.22%2.9%2026-10-05 13:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.84I 54.35%NM 51.94%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.23%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.83%4.6%2026-10-05 13:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.84I 54.35%NM 51.94%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.23%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.83%4.6%2026-10-05 13:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.84I 54.35%NM 51.94%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.23%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.83%4.6%2026-10-05 13:00
Smarkets◎1.82I 54.95%NM 51.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.52%7.3%2026-10-05 13:00