The School of Odds
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Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn

2026-10-17 13:30 UTC — Bundesliga - Germany

Head to Head

23 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Werder Bremen (Local)

Prediction 52.54%1.90fair odd
EV -1.23%
Edge -0.655%
Kelly -1.40%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.01%52.55%52.48%54.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.631.751.751.8861.35%57.06%57.14%53.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

SC Paderborn (Visit)

Prediction 24.08%4.15fair odd
EV -1.27%
Edge -0.309%
Kelly -0.409%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.59%24.10%24.11%25.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.873.834.1028.57%25.86%26.11%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.38%4.28fair odd
EV -1.80%
Edge -0.427%
Kelly -0.561%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.59%23.35%23.41%24.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.944.004.2026.67%25.37%25.00%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Werder Bremen (Local): 52.54%; SC Paderborn (Visit): 24.08%; Draw: 23.38%. For Werder Bremen (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.90. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.88, with an expected value of -1.23%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (23 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 52.43%EV -1.23%E -0.655%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.09I 24.45%NM 24.10%EV -1.51%E -0.369%K -0.488%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.47%EV -1.80%E -0.427%K -0.561%G +0.000%1.5%2026-09-21 08:54
Pinnacle🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.88%EV -3.86%E -2.11%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 24.79%EV -7.77%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 23.33%EV -4.83%E -1.19%K -1.57%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-21 11:35
Bovada🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -3.86%E -2.11%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.91%EV -8.49%E -2.23%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.37%EV -5.30%E -1.31%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-21 11:26
Tipico (DE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.43%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -3.67%E -0.919%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -6.47%E -1.62%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-21 12:14
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.43%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -3.67%E -0.919%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.68%EV -6.47%E -1.62%K -2.16%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-21 10:08
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -5.43%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -8.49%E -2.23%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -11.15%E -2.93%K -3.98%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-21 09:04
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -5.43%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -8.49%E -2.23%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -11.15%E -2.93%K -3.98%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-21 09:04
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -5.43%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -8.49%E -2.23%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -11.15%E -2.93%K -3.98%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-21 09:04
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -5.43%E -3.02%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -8.49%E -2.23%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -11.15%E -2.93%K -3.98%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-21 09:04
Betr (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -6.48%E -3.64%K -8.31%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -3.67%E -0.919%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.54%EV -6.47%E -1.62%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-21 10:09
Betway🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.70%EV -7.01%E -3.96%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -13.31%E -3.70%K -5.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.88%EV -6.47%E -1.62%K -2.16%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-21 09:04
SportsBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -8.06%E -4.61%K -10.75%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -1.27%E -0.309%K -0.409%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.03%EV -4.13%E -1.01%K -1.33%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-21 10:48
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.01%EV -8.06%E -4.61%K -10.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.50%EV -15.72%E -4.49%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.49%EV -11.15%E -2.93%K -3.98%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-21 08:54
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -8.59%E -4.93%K -11.60%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -3.67%E -0.919%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -6.47%E -1.62%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-21 08:54
Unibet (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -9.11%E -5.27%K -12.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -3.67%E -0.919%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -6.47%E -1.62%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-21 08:54
Sky Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -9.11%E -5.27%K -12.48%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -3.67%E -0.919%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -6.47%E -1.62%K -2.16%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-21 10:54
LeoVegas🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%EV -9.11%E -5.27%K -12.48%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -6.08%E -1.56%K -2.10%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.51%EV -8.81%E -2.26%K -3.04%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-21 08:54
Paddy Power🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -10.69%E -6.29%K -15.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -3.67%E -0.919%K -1.22%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -6.47%E -1.62%K -2.16%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-21 10:52
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.81%EV -11.21%E -6.63%K -16.25%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.59%EV -1.27%E -0.309%K -0.409%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.59%EV -4.13%E -1.01%K -1.33%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-21 10:54
Betclic (FR)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.42%EV -12.26%E -7.34%K -18.30%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 23.29%EV -7.77%E -2.03%K -2.75%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 23.29%EV -10.45%E -2.73%K -3.69%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-21 08:53
Winamax (DE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 53.02%EV -12.79%E -7.70%K -19.38%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.11%EV -12.10%E -3.32%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.86%EV -9.98%E -2.59%K -3.50%G +0.000%13.6%2026-09-21 08:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 52.65%EV -13.84%E -8.44%K -21.62%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.32%EV -14.51%E -4.09%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.03%EV -12.32%E -3.28%K -4.48%G +0.000%15.8%2026-09-21 08:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 53.82%EV -14.37%E -8.81%K -22.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.09%EV -8.49%E -2.23%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.09%EV -11.15%E -2.93%K -3.98%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-21 08:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.65I 60.61%NM 52.17%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.91%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.91%16.2%2026-09-21 08:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 32.93%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53%171.1%2026-09-21 12:04
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 32.93%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.53%171.1%2026-09-21 12:04
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.08I 92.59%NM 33.74%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.13%1.10I 90.91%NM 33.13%174.4%2026-09-21 12:04