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TSG Hoffenheim v VfB Stuttgart

2026-09-12 13:30 UTC — Bundesliga - Germany

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TSG Hoffenheim (Local)

Prediction 43.17%2.32fair odd
EV -1.14%
Edge -0.498%
Kelly -0.883%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.26%43.17%43.08%44.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.152.152.2950.00%46.57%46.51%43.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

VfB Stuttgart (Visit)

Prediction 32.60%3.07fair odd
EV -1.88%
Edge -0.624%
Kelly -0.934%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.68%32.57%32.65%33.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.832.853.0138.46%35.30%35.09%33.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.23%4.13fair odd
EV -1.38%
Edge -0.339%
Kelly -0.450%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.55%24.25%24.27%24.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.833.804.0727.78%26.10%26.32%24.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: TSG Hoffenheim (Local): 43.17%; VfB Stuttgart (Visit): 32.60%; Draw: 24.23%. For TSG Hoffenheim (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.32. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.29, with an expected value of -1.14%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 43.04%EV -1.14%E -0.498%K -0.883%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 32.74%EV -1.88%E -0.624%K -0.934%G +0.000%4.07I 24.57%NM 24.22%EV -1.38%E -0.339%K -0.450%G +0.000%1.5%2026-08-30 15:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 43.05%EV -2.87%E -1.27%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.73%EV -3.51%E -1.19%K -1.79%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.22%EV -3.08%E -0.769%K -1.03%G +0.000%3.2%2026-08-30 15:25
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.26%EV -2.87%E -1.27%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -8.72%E -3.12%K -4.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.77%EV -3.08%E -0.769%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-30 14:10
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.32%EV -5.03%E -2.28%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.86%EV -5.46%E -1.88%K -2.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.82%EV -3.08%E -0.769%K -1.03%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-30 14:25
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.07%EV -5.03%E -2.28%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.25%EV -7.09%E -2.49%K -3.83%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.69%EV -3.08%E -0.769%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-30 14:10
Tipico (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.05%EV -5.03%E -2.28%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.66%EV -5.46%E -1.88%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.29%EV -5.50%E -1.41%K -1.90%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-30 15:20
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.81%EV -5.03%E -2.28%K -4.19%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.64%EV -8.72%E -3.12%K -4.85%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.55%EV -3.08%E -0.769%K -1.03%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-30 14:10
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.20%EV -7.18%E -3.34%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.03%EV -5.46%E -1.88%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.77%EV -9.13%E -2.44%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-30 14:10
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -7.18%E -3.34%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.11%EV -8.72%E -3.12%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -5.50%E -1.41%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-30 14:10
FanDuel🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -7.18%E -3.34%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.11%EV -8.72%E -3.12%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.77%EV -5.50%E -1.41%K -1.90%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-30 15:00
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.10%EV -7.18%E -3.34%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.51%EV -7.09%E -2.49%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.39%EV -7.92%E -2.08%K -2.83%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-30 14:09
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.96%EV -7.18%E -3.34%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.07%EV -6.12%E -2.12%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -10.35%E -2.80%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-30 14:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.96%EV -7.18%E -3.34%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.07%EV -6.12%E -2.12%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -10.35%E -2.80%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-30 14:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.96%EV -7.18%E -3.34%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.07%EV -6.12%E -2.12%K -3.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -10.35%E -2.80%K -3.83%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-30 14:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.96%EV -7.18%E -3.34%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.41%EV -7.09%E -2.49%K -3.83%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -9.13%E -2.44%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-30 14:10
LeoVegas🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.06%EV -8.48%E -4.00%K -7.57%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.60%EV -8.72%E -3.12%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.34%EV -9.13%E -2.44%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-30 15:20
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.17%EV -9.34%E -4.45%K -8.49%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.97%EV -10.35%E -3.76%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.86%EV -7.92%E -2.08%K -2.83%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-30 15:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 43.62%EV -10.21%E -4.91%K -9.45%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 32.06%EV -7.75%E -2.74%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 24.32%EV -9.62%E -2.58%K -3.52%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-30 14:10
Unibet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.35%EV -13.66%E -6.83%K -13.66%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.68%EV -8.72%E -3.12%K -4.85%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.97%EV -10.35%E -2.80%K -3.83%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-30 14:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.57%EV -13.66%E -6.83%K -13.66%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 32.88%EV -13.61%E -5.14%K -8.25%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.55%EV -10.35%E -2.80%K -3.83%G +0.000%14.8%2026-08-30 14:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.01%EV -13.66%E -6.83%K -13.66%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 33.09%EV -15.24%E -5.86%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.90%EV -12.77%E -3.55%K -4.91%G +0.000%16.2%2026-08-30 14:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.17I 46.08%NM 42.24%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.85%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%9.1%2026-08-30 18:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.09I 91.74%NM 33.13%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.44%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.44%176.9%2026-08-30 15:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.09I 91.74%NM 33.13%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.44%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.44%176.9%2026-08-30 15:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.06I 94.34%NM 33.75%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.13%1.08I 92.59%NM 33.13%179.5%2026-08-30 15:20