The School of Odds
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TSG Hoffenheim v Hamburger SV

2026-10-10 13:30 UTC — Bundesliga - Germany

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

TSG Hoffenheim (Local)

Prediction 69.88%1.43fair odd
EV -2.87%
Edge -2.06%
Kelly -7.35%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.39

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.06%69.93%69.59%71.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.271.321.331.3978.74%75.76%75.47%71.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hamburger SV (Visit)

Prediction 12.36%8.09fair odd
EV +6.26%
Edge +0.728%
Kelly +0.824%
Growth +0.052%

assuming max odds 8.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.19%12.37%12.34%14.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.907.367.508.6016.95%13.59%13.33%11.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.76%5.63fair odd
EV +3.03%
Edge +0.522%
Kelly +0.631%
Growth +0.019%

assuming max odds 5.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.45%17.70%18.06%18.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.805.245.155.8020.83%19.09%19.42%17.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: TSG Hoffenheim (Local): 69.88%; Hamburger SV (Visit): 12.36%; Draw: 17.76%. For Hamburger SV (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.09. 5 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 8.60, producing a positive expected value of +6.26%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 71.02%EV -2.87%E -2.06%K -7.35%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.48%EV +6.26%E +0.728%K +0.824%G +0.052%5.64I 17.73%NM 17.50%EV +0.187%E +0.033%K +0.040%G +0.000%1.3%2026-09-16 13:35
betfred_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.52%EV -7.06%E -5.31%K -21.39%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.19%EV +5.03%E +0.591%K +0.670%G +0.034%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -2.30%E -0.418%K -0.511%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-16 19:05
Pinnacle🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.46%EV -6.36%E -4.75%K -18.71%G +0.000%8.27I 12.09%NM 11.42%EV +2.19%E +0.264%K +0.301%G +0.007%5.21I 19.19%NM 18.12%EV -7.45%E -1.43%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-16 14:31
Betr (AU)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -7.76%E -5.88%K -24.24%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.43%EV +1.94%E +0.235%K +0.267%G +0.005%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.14%EV -2.30%E -0.418%K -0.511%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-16 19:05
Tipico (DE)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.81%EV -7.76%E -5.88%K -24.24%G +0.000%8.20I 12.20%NM 11.56%EV +1.32%E +0.161%K +0.183%G +0.002%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.63%EV +1.25%E +0.220%K +0.267%G +0.003%5.5%2026-09-16 19:35
William Hill🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -5.66%E -4.19%K -16.18%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.41%EV -7.33%E -0.977%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.62%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.80%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-16 15:10
888sport🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.06%E -5.31%K -21.39%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -7.33%E -0.977%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-16 15:11
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.06%E -5.31%K -21.39%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -7.33%E -0.977%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-16 15:11
888sport (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -7.06%E -5.31%K -21.39%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -7.33%E -0.977%K -1.13%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.43%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.80%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-16 15:11
DraftKings🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 69.08%EV -8.46%E -6.46%K -27.28%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.07%EV -7.33%E -0.977%K -1.13%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.85%EV -14.73%E -3.07%K -3.88%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-16 19:04
Codere (IT)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.66%EV -5.66%E -4.19%K -16.18%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.89%EV -8.56%E -1.16%K -1.34%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.45%EV +3.03%E +0.522%K +0.631%G +0.019%4.8%2026-09-16 16:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.84%EV -7.06%E -5.31%K -21.39%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.27%EV -13.51%E -1.93%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.89%EV -2.30%E -0.418%K -0.511%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-16 16:16
BoyleSports🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 69.17%EV -9.16%E -7.04%K -30.52%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.85%EV -13.51%E -1.93%K -2.25%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.98%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.80%G +0.000%11.2%2026-09-16 13:34
LeoVegas🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.11%EV -7.76%E -5.88%K -24.24%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.51%EV -16.60%E -2.46%K -2.89%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.38%EV -6.74%E -1.28%K -1.59%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-16 16:15
Betclic (FR)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 69.04%EV -9.85%E -7.64%K -33.98%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.49%EV -18.45%E -2.80%K -3.29%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.46%EV -9.41%E -1.84%K -2.29%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-16 16:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 69.23%EV -11.25%E -8.86%K -41.67%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.53%EV -19.69%E -3.03%K -3.58%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 17.24%EV -9.41%E -1.84%K -2.29%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-16 16:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 68.52%EV -10.55%E -8.24%K -37.69%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.62%EV -25.86%E -4.31%K -5.17%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.87%EV -7.63%E -1.47%K -1.82%G +0.000%14.0%2026-09-16 16:14
Winamax (FR)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 68.06%EV -11.25%E -8.86%K -41.67%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 14.65%EV -27.10%E -4.59%K -5.53%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 17.29%EV -11.18%E -2.24%K -2.80%G +0.000%15.7%2026-09-16 16:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.26I 79.37%NM 67.66%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.21%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.14%17.3%2026-09-16 16:15