The School of Odds1. FC Köln v TSG Hoffenheim
Head to Head
Option 1: 1. FC Köln (Local)
Odds
2.9533.90%Min
3.2530.82%Mean
3.2331.01%Median
3.5028.57%Max
Consensus probabilities
27.06%3.696Min
30.24%3.307Max
28.67%3.488Mean
28.92%3.458Median
28.77%3.475IQM
28.47%3.513Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 3.50 under the IQM model: 28.77%
EV +0.709%Edge +0.202%Kelly +0.283%Growth +0.002%
Option 2: TSG Hoffenheim (Visit)
Odds
1.8653.76%Min
2.0449.06%Mean
2.0548.78%Median
2.1546.51%Max
Consensus probabilities
43.79%2.284Min
47.35%2.112Max
46.34%2.158Mean
46.08%2.170Median
46.19%2.165IQM
46.26%2.162Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 2.15 under the IQM model: 46.19%
EV -0.696%Edge -0.324%Kelly -0.605%Growth +0.000%
Option 3: Draw
Odds
3.2530.77%Min
3.6527.38%Mean
3.7226.88%Median
4.0025.00%Max
Consensus probabilities
23.50%4.256Min
28.53%3.505Max
24.99%4.002Mean
25.00%4.000Median
25.04%3.994IQM
25.27%3.958Margin-weighted
Metrics for max odd 4.00 under the IQM model: 25.04%
EV +0.153%Edge +0.038%Kelly +0.051%Growth +0.000%
Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)
| Bookmaker | 1. FC Köln (Local) ▼ | TSG Hoffenheim (Visit) | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tipico (DE) | 3.50I 28.57% NM 27.06%EV +0.709% E +0.202% K +0.283% G +0.002% | 2.00I 50.00% NM 47.35%EV -7.62% E -3.81% K -7.62% G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03% NM 25.59%EV -7.36% E -1.99% K -2.73% G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-03 17:45 |
| 1xBet | 3.48I 28.74% NM 28.29%EV +0.133% E +0.038% K +0.054% G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51% NM 45.80%EV -0.696% E -0.324% K -0.605% G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32% NM 25.91%EV -4.85% E -1.28% K -1.73% G +0.000% | 1.6% | 2026-07-05 12:05 |
| Codere (IT) | 3.45I 28.99% NM 27.69%EV -0.730% E -0.212% K -0.298% G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31% NM 46.14%EV -4.39% E -2.12% K -4.10% G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40% NM 26.17%EV -8.61% E -2.36% K -3.25% G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-03 20:25 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.42I 29.24% NM 28.35%EV -1.59% E -0.466% K -0.658% G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17% NM 45.73%EV -2.08% E -0.982% K -1.86% G +0.000% | 3.74I 26.74% NM 25.92%EV -6.36% E -1.70% K -2.32% G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-07-05 12:00 |
| Coral | 3.40I 29.41% NM 27.92%EV -2.17% E -0.638% K -0.904% G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51% NM 44.16%EV -0.696% E -0.324% K -0.605% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 27.92%EV -14.87% E -4.37% K -6.20% G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-05 13:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 3.40I 29.41% NM 27.69%EV -2.17% E -0.638% K -0.904% G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51% NM 43.79%EV -0.696% E -0.324% K -0.605% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 28.53%EV -17.37% E -5.26% K -7.55% G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-05 14:10 |
| Neds | 3.40I 29.41% NM 27.69%EV -2.17% E -0.638% K -0.904% G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51% NM 43.79%EV -0.696% E -0.324% K -0.605% G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30% NM 28.53%EV -17.37% E -5.26% K -7.55% G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-05 14:15 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 3.30I 30.30% NM 27.83%EV -5.05% E -1.53% K -2.19% G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00% NM 45.92%EV -7.62% E -3.81% K -7.62% G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57% NM 26.24%EV -12.37% E -3.53% K -4.95% G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-03 16:45 |
| betfred_uk | 3.25I 30.77% NM 28.97%EV -6.48% E -2.00% K -2.88% G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78% NM 45.93%EV -5.31% E -2.59% K -5.06% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 25.11%EV -6.11% E -1.63% K -2.22% G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-05 12:00 |
| Winamax (DE) | 3.25I 30.77% NM 28.35%EV -6.48% E -2.00% K -2.88% G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00% NM 46.06%EV -7.62% E -3.81% K -7.62% G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78% NM 25.59%EV -9.86% E -2.74% K -3.79% G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-07-03 16:45 |
| SportsBet | 3.20I 31.25% NM 29.75%EV -7.92% E -2.48% K -3.60% G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78% NM 46.44%EV -5.31% E -2.59% K -5.06% G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00% NM 23.80%EV +0.153% E +0.038% K +0.051% G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-03 11:25 |
| Betr (AU) | 3.20I 31.25% NM 29.57%EV -7.92% E -2.48% K -3.60% G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78% NM 46.16%EV -5.31% E -2.59% K -5.06% G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64% NM 24.26%EV -2.35% E -0.603% K -0.811% G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-03 14:30 |
| FanDuel | 3.20I 31.25% NM 29.57%EV -7.92% E -2.48% K -3.60% G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78% NM 46.16%EV -5.31% E -2.59% K -5.06% G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64% NM 24.26%EV -2.35% E -0.603% K -0.811% G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-03 14:35 |
| LeoVegas | 3.20I 31.25% NM 28.66%EV -7.92% E -2.48% K -3.60% G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00% NM 45.86%EV -7.62% E -3.81% K -7.62% G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78% NM 25.48%EV -9.86% E -2.74% K -3.79% G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-07-05 12:05 |
| Betclic (FR) | 3.15I 31.75% NM 27.79%EV -9.36% E -2.97% K -4.35% G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63% NM 46.08%EV -12.24% E -6.44% K -13.60% G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85% NM 26.13%EV -16.12% E -4.81% K -6.86% G +0.000% | 14.2% | 2026-07-03 17:34 |
| Sky Bet | 3.10I 32.26% NM 30.24%EV -10.80% E -3.48% K -5.14% G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78% NM 45.73%EV -5.31% E -2.59% K -5.06% G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64% NM 24.04%EV -2.35% E -0.603% K -0.811% G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-07-03 11:25 |
| Paddy Power | 3.10I 32.26% NM 29.71%EV -10.80% E -3.48% K -5.14% G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00% NM 46.05%EV -7.62% E -3.81% K -7.62% G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32% NM 24.24%EV -4.85% E -1.28% K -1.73% G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-03 15:10 |
| Unibet (UK) | 3.10I 32.26% NM 29.62%EV -10.80% E -3.48% K -5.14% G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00% NM 45.90%EV -7.62% E -3.81% K -7.62% G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67% NM 24.48%EV -6.11% E -1.63% K -2.22% G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-07-05 12:05 |
| BoyleSports | 3.00I 33.33% NM 29.76%EV -13.68% E -4.56% K -6.84% G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36% NM 46.74%EV -11.78% E -6.17% K -12.95% G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32% NM 23.50%EV -4.85% E -1.28% K -1.73% G +0.000% | 12.0% | 2026-07-05 11:50 |
| Unibet (FR) | 3.00I 33.33% NM 29.30%EV -13.68% E -4.56% K -6.84% G +0.000% | 1.96I 51.02% NM 44.85%EV -9.47% E -4.83% K -9.87% G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41% NM 25.85%EV -14.87% E -4.37% K -6.20% G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-07-03 21:00 |
| Winamax (FR) | 2.95I 33.90% NM 28.62%EV -15.12% E -5.12% K -7.75% G +0.000% | 1.86I 53.76% NM 45.40%EV -14.09% E -7.58% K -16.38% G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77% NM 25.98%EV -18.63% E -5.73% K -8.28% G +0.000% | 18.4% | 2026-07-03 16:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | 1. FC Köln (Local) | TSG Hoffenheim (Visit) | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets | 3.00I 33.33% | 1.90I 52.63% | 3.20I 31.25% | 17.2% | 2026-07-03 16:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.30I 76.92% | 1.30I 76.92% | 1.01I 99.01% | 152.9% | 2026-07-03 12:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.30I 76.92% | 1.30I 76.92% | 1.01I 99.01% | 152.9% | 2026-07-03 15:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.30I 76.92% | 1.30I 76.92% | 1.01I 99.01% | 152.9% | 2026-07-03 15:45 |