The School of Odds
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1. FC Köln v Bayer Leverkusen

2026-11-08 14:30 UTC — Bundesliga - Germany

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

1. FC Köln (Local)

Prediction 21.35%4.68fair odd
EV -3.73%
Edge -0.826%
Kelly -1.06%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.82%21.52%21.29%23.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.334.404.5125.97%23.08%22.73%22.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Bayer Leverkusen (Visit)

Prediction 57.01%1.75fair odd
EV -0.227%
Edge -0.129%
Kelly -0.302%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.09%56.88%57.14%58.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.561.641.641.7564.10%60.96%60.98%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 21.64%4.62fair odd
EV -1.10%
Edge -0.242%
Kelly -0.310%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.65%21.60%21.57%22.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.294.254.5725.32%23.31%23.53%21.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: 1. FC Köln (Local): 21.35%; Bayer Leverkusen (Visit): 57.01%; Draw: 21.64%. For Bayer Leverkusen (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.754. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.750, with an expected value of -0.227%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯4.51I 22.17%NM 21.01%EV -3.73%E -0.826%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.41%EV -5.93%E -3.59%K -9.12%G +0.000%4.39I 22.78%NM 21.58%EV -5.00%E -1.14%K -1.47%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-25 23:41
PointsBet (AU)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.30%EV -3.94%E -0.876%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.79%E -2.87%K -7.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.30%EV -2.62%E -0.582%K -0.749%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-25 20:59
Fanatics🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.30%EV -3.94%E -0.876%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.79%E -2.87%K -7.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.30%EV -2.62%E -0.582%K -0.749%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-25 20:59
Coral🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.12%EV -3.94%E -0.876%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.92%EV -4.79%E -2.87%K -7.15%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.95%EV -6.30%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-25 20:58
BetMGM🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 21.12%EV -3.94%E -0.876%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.92%EV -4.79%E -2.87%K -7.15%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.95%EV -6.30%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-25 20:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.98%EV -3.94%E -0.876%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.22%EV -5.93%E -3.59%K -9.12%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.80%EV -6.30%E -1.45%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-25 20:58
Neds🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -3.94%E -0.876%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.13%EV -6.50%E -3.96%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.05%EV -8.03%E -1.89%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-25 20:58
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.82%EV -3.94%E -0.876%K -1.13%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 57.13%EV -6.50%E -3.96%K -10.15%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.05%EV -8.03%E -1.89%K -2.47%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-25 20:58
1xBet🎯4.41I 22.68%NM 22.30%EV -5.86%E -1.33%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.19%EV -0.227%E -0.129%K -0.302%G +0.000%4.57I 21.88%NM 21.52%EV -1.10%E -0.242%K -0.310%G +0.000%1.7%2026-10-25 23:35
Tipico (DE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.53%EV -6.08%E -1.38%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.42%EV -5.93%E -3.59%K -9.12%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -2.62%E -0.582%K -0.749%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-25 21:59
NordicBet🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.35%EV -6.08%E -1.38%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.00%EV -7.64%E -4.72%K -12.32%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.65%EV -1.54%E -0.338%K -0.433%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-26 00:30
Betsson🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 21.30%EV -6.08%E -1.38%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.86%EV -7.64%E -4.72%K -12.32%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.83%EV -2.62%E -0.582%K -0.749%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-26 00:29
William Hill🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.99%EV -6.08%E -1.38%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 57.02%EV -7.64%E -4.72%K -12.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -9.11%E -2.17%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-25 20:58
888sport🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -6.08%E -1.38%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.17%EV -8.21%E -5.10%K -13.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -9.11%E -2.17%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-25 20:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -6.08%E -1.38%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.17%EV -8.21%E -5.10%K -13.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -9.11%E -2.17%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-25 20:58
888sport (SE)🎯4.40I 22.73%NM 20.92%EV -6.08%E -1.38%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 57.17%EV -8.21%E -5.10%K -13.46%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -9.11%E -2.17%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-25 20:59
Unibet (UK)🎯4.35I 22.99%NM 21.40%EV -7.14%E -1.64%K -2.13%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.43%EV -5.93%E -3.59%K -9.12%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.17%EV -9.11%E -2.17%K -2.85%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-25 21:20
betfred_uk🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.95%EV -7.57%E -1.75%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.92%EV -4.79%E -2.87%K -7.15%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.12%EV -2.62%E -0.582%K -0.749%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-25 23:35
picklebet_au🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.33%EV -7.57%E -1.75%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.67%EV -7.07%E -4.34%K -11.22%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.99%EV -9.11%E -2.17%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-25 23:35
Marathon Bet🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.32%EV -8.21%E -1.91%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.12%EV -2.51%E -1.47%K -3.53%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.56%EV -3.70%E -0.832%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-25 23:35
Betr (AU)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 22.04%EV -8.21%E -1.91%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.42%EV -4.22%E -2.51%K -6.20%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.54%EV -4.78%E -1.09%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-25 23:35
LeoVegas🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 21.26%EV -8.21%E -1.91%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 56.44%EV -7.64%E -4.72%K -12.32%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.30%EV -11.28%E -2.75%K -3.64%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-25 23:35
Betclic (FR)🎯4.15I 24.10%NM 21.50%EV -11.41%E -2.75%K -3.62%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 56.47%EV -9.92%E -6.28%K -17.10%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.03%EV -12.36%E -3.05%K -4.05%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-25 21:19
Betway🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -14.61%E -3.65%K -4.87%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.09%EV -4.79%E -2.87%K -7.15%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -9.11%E -2.17%K -2.85%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-25 23:36
Winamax (DE)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 22.13%EV -15.68%E -3.97%K -5.32%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 56.02%EV -11.06%E -7.09%K -19.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.85%EV -13.44%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%14.4%2026-10-25 23:36
Unibet (FR)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.74%EV -16.75%E -4.29%K -5.78%G +0.000%1.61I 62.11%NM 55.09%EV -8.21%E -5.10%K -13.46%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.17%EV -13.44%E -3.36%K -4.48%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-25 21:20
Winamax (FR)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 22.51%EV -17.82%E -4.63%K -6.25%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 55.55%EV -11.06%E -7.09%K -19.75%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 21.94%EV -14.52%E -3.68%K -4.92%G +0.000%15.4%2026-10-25 23:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎3.90I 25.64%NM 22.01%1.55I 64.52%NM 55.39%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.59%16.5%2026-10-25 21:20
Kalshi◎1.54I 64.94%NM 32.01%1.45I 68.97%NM 34.00%1.45I 68.97%NM 34.00%102.9%2026-10-26 00:00