The School of Odds
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USL Dunkerque v Metz

Kickoff: 2026-10-23 18:00 UTC

Final: USL Dunkerque 1–1 Metz

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

USL Dunkerque (Local)

Prediction 33.39%3.00fair odd
EV -0.508%
Edge -0.171%
Kelly -0.257%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.56%33.34%33.29%34.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.732.752.9840.00%36.57%36.36%33.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Metz (Visit)

Prediction 40.41%2.47fair odd
EV -3.00%
Edge -1.25%
Kelly -2.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.35%40.49%40.43%42.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.282.282.4047.62%43.93%43.86%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.20%3.82fair odd
EV -1.75%
Edge -0.468%
Kelly -0.638%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.59%26.17%26.28%26.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.493.503.7530.30%28.68%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: USL Dunkerque (Local): 33.39%; Metz (Visit): 40.41%; Draw: 26.20%. For USL Dunkerque (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.00. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.98, with an expected value of -0.508%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 32.32%EV -0.508%E -0.171%K -0.257%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 41.15%EV -5.43%E -2.32%K -4.05%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.53%EV -4.90%E -1.35%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-23 15:22
Tipico (DE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.56%EV -1.51%E -0.512%K -0.774%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.93%EV -15.13%E -7.20%K -13.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.51%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-23 10:00
LowVig.ag🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.22%EV -2.51%E -0.860%K -1.31%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.90%EV -7.05%E -3.06%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -8.30%E -2.37%K -3.32%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-23 15:59
BetOnline.ag🎯2.92I 34.25%NM 32.22%EV -2.51%E -0.860%K -1.31%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.90%EV -7.05%E -3.06%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -8.30%E -2.37%K -3.32%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-23 15:59
DraftKings🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -3.18%E -1.10%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.12%EV -7.05%E -3.06%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.27%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.19%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-23 12:31
BetUS🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.37%EV -3.18%E -1.10%K -1.67%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.81%EV -7.05%E -3.06%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.82%EV -8.30%E -2.37%K -3.32%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-23 15:25
BetMGM🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.23%EV -3.85%E -1.34%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.25%EV -9.07%E -4.03%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.52%EV -8.30%E -2.37%K -3.32%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-23 12:10
1xBet🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 33.25%EV -6.18%E -2.20%K -3.42%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.80%EV -7.45%E -3.25%K -5.78%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.95%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-23 10:04
Marathon Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.21%EV -6.52%E -2.33%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.27I 44.05%NM 40.96%EV -8.26%E -3.64%K -6.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-23 10:00
Betway🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -6.52%E -2.33%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -9.07%E -4.03%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-23 12:13
Bovada🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -6.52%E -2.33%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.88%EV -9.07%E -4.03%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.28%EV -8.30%E -2.37%K -3.32%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-23 12:24
888sport🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -6.52%E -2.33%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -9.07%E -4.03%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-23 10:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -6.52%E -2.33%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -9.07%E -4.03%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-23 10:11
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -6.52%E -2.33%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -9.07%E -4.03%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-23 10:10
William Hill🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -6.52%E -2.33%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -9.07%E -4.03%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-23 10:10
betano_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -6.52%E -2.33%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.42%EV -11.09%E -5.04%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -8.30%E -2.37%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-23 10:44
Bet Victor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.54%EV -6.52%E -2.33%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.42%EV -11.09%E -5.04%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.04%EV -8.30%E -2.37%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-23 10:45
Coolbet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.73%EV -8.19%E -2.98%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.80%EV -3.00%E -1.25%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.47%EV -1.75%E -0.468%K -0.638%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-22 15:05
TABtouch🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -8.19%E -2.98%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -5.03%E -2.14%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -6.99%E -1.97%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-21 19:45
Unibet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -8.19%E -2.98%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -5.03%E -2.14%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -6.99%E -1.97%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-21 19:44
Unibet (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -8.19%E -2.98%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -5.03%E -2.14%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -6.99%E -1.97%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-21 19:45
Casumo🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -8.19%E -2.98%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -5.03%E -2.14%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -6.99%E -1.97%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-21 19:45
Grosvenor🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -8.19%E -2.98%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -5.03%E -2.14%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -6.99%E -1.97%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-21 19:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -8.19%E -2.98%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -5.03%E -2.14%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -6.99%E -1.97%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-21 19:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -8.19%E -2.98%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -5.03%E -2.14%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -6.99%E -1.97%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-21 19:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -8.19%E -2.98%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -5.03%E -2.14%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -6.99%E -1.97%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-21 19:44
betPARX🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.96%EV -8.19%E -2.98%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -5.03%E -2.14%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.31%EV -6.99%E -1.97%K -2.74%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-21 19:45
Fanatics🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -8.19%E -2.98%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -9.07%E -4.03%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.12%EV -8.30%E -2.37%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-23 10:04
PlayUp🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.99%EV -8.19%E -2.98%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.32%EV -9.07%E -4.03%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.68%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-23 13:51
Neds🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.69%EV -8.19%E -2.98%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.87%EV -11.09%E -5.04%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-23 12:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.69%EV -8.19%E -2.98%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.87%EV -11.09%E -5.04%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-23 12:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.69%EV -8.19%E -2.98%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.87%EV -11.09%E -5.04%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-23 12:10
Coral🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.69%EV -8.19%E -2.98%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.87%EV -11.09%E -5.04%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.44%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-23 12:09
Betsson🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 33.64%EV -9.19%E -3.38%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.44%EV -6.24%E -2.69%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-23 10:00
NordicBet🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 33.64%EV -9.19%E -3.38%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.44%EV -6.24%E -2.69%K -4.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-23 10:00
NetBet (FR)🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 33.36%EV -9.19%E -3.38%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.33%EV -9.07%E -4.03%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.30%EV -9.61%E -2.79%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-23 12:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -9.86%E -3.65%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.63%EV -5.03%E -2.14%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-22 15:04
FanDuel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -9.86%E -3.65%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.63%EV -5.03%E -2.14%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-22 18:03
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -9.86%E -3.65%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.15%EV -7.05%E -3.06%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-23 12:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -9.86%E -3.65%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.15%EV -7.05%E -3.06%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.65%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-23 06:32
picklebet_au🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.40%EV -9.86%E -3.65%K -5.80%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.08%EV -9.07%E -4.03%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.52%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-23 10:00
Betclic (FR)🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 34.02%EV -10.86%E -4.07%K -6.50%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.49%EV -7.05%E -3.06%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 26.48%EV -10.14%E -2.96%K -4.17%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-23 12:13
Winamax (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.50%EV -11.53%E -4.35%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.75%EV -7.05%E -3.06%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.75%EV -6.99%E -1.97%K -2.74%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-23 09:59
SportsBet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.37%EV -11.53%E -4.35%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.60%EV -7.05%E -3.06%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -8.30%E -2.37%K -3.32%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-17 12:50
Codere (IT)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.30%EV -11.53%E -4.35%K -6.99%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 39.35%EV -6.64%E -2.88%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.35%EV -9.61%E -2.79%K -3.92%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-23 12:20
BetRivers🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.16%EV -12.19%E -4.64%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.41%EV -7.85%E -3.44%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.43%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-21 19:45
Virgin Bet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.16%EV -12.19%E -4.64%K -7.48%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 39.41%EV -7.85%E -3.44%K -6.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.43%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-21 19:45
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.63%EV -12.53%E -4.78%K -7.73%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -7.05%E -3.06%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.92%EV -8.30%E -2.37%K -3.32%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-17 12:50
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.75%EV -13.19%E -5.07%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.15%EV -9.07%E -4.03%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.10%EV -5.68%E -1.58%K -2.19%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-23 12:20
Winamax (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.50%EV -13.19%E -5.07%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.87%EV -9.07%E -4.03%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.63%EV -8.30%E -2.37%K -3.32%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-23 10:00
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -13.19%E -5.07%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -9.07%E -4.03%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-17 12:50
Sky Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.24%EV -13.19%E -5.07%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.57%EV -9.07%E -4.03%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.19%EV -10.92%E -3.21%K -4.55%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-20 18:10
LiveScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.11%EV -13.19%E -5.07%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.42%EV -9.07%E -4.03%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.47%EV -12.23%E -3.65%K -5.21%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-21 19:45
PMU (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.11%EV -13.19%E -5.07%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.42%EV -9.07%E -4.03%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.47%EV -12.23%E -3.65%K -5.21%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-23 07:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.11%EV -13.19%E -5.07%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.42%EV -9.07%E -4.03%K -7.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.47%EV -12.23%E -3.65%K -5.21%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-21 19:44
Unibet (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.11%EV -14.86%E -5.83%K -9.59%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.53%EV -11.09%E -5.04%K -9.24%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.36%EV -13.54%E -4.10%K -5.89%G +0.000%15.0%2026-10-23 06:40
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.43%EV -16.53%E -6.61%K -11.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 40.98%EV -15.13%E -7.20%K -13.75%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.59%EV -8.30%E -2.37%K -3.32%G +0.000%16.2%2026-10-23 12:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.42%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.21%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.37%1.1%2026-10-23 15:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.42%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.21%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.37%1.1%2026-10-23 15:35
Matchbook◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.42%2.40I 41.67%NM 41.21%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.37%1.1%2026-10-23 15:59
Smarkets◎3.00I 33.33%NM 32.79%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.98%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.23%1.7%2026-10-23 15:07
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 32.79%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.98%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.23%1.7%2026-10-23 15:59