Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Stade Lavallois v Nantes

Kickoff: 2026-08-14 18:45 UTC

Final: Stade Lavallois 2–1 Nantes

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Stade Lavallois (Local)

Prediction 26.09%3.83fair odd
EV +0.464%
Edge +0.120%
Kelly +0.163%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 3.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.42%26.04%26.11%27.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.573.603.8530.77%28.04%27.78%25.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nantes (Visit)

Prediction 46.18%2.17fair odd
EV -4.41%
Edge -2.13%
Kelly -4.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.18%46.16%46.18%47.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.881.982.002.0753.19%50.46%50.00%48.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.73%3.61fair odd
EV -2.95%
Edge -0.844%
Kelly -1.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.72%27.80%27.72%28.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.053.263.253.5032.79%30.65%30.77%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Stade Lavallois (Local): 26.09%; Nantes (Visit): 46.18%; Draw: 27.73%. For Stade Lavallois (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.83. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.464%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
PMU (FR)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.44%EV +0.464%E +0.120%K +0.163%G +0.001%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.05%EV -7.64%E -3.82%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.51%EV -8.50%E -2.58%K -3.70%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-14 18:00
Svenska Spel🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 24.44%EV +0.464%E +0.120%K +0.163%G +0.001%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.05%EV -7.64%E -3.82%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.51%EV -8.50%E -2.58%K -3.70%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-14 18:00
Pinnacle🎯3.76I 26.60%NM 25.58%EV -1.88%E -0.501%K -0.683%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.46%EV -4.41%E -2.13%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.96%EV -4.62%E -1.34%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-14 18:30
FanDuel🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -3.45%E -0.933%K -1.28%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.18%EV -7.64%E -3.82%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -11.27%E -3.52%K -5.12%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-14 18:30
Tipico (DE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.96%EV -3.45%E -0.933%K -1.28%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.18%EV -7.64%E -3.82%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -11.27%E -3.52%K -5.12%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-14 18:24
Unibet🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.56%EV -3.45%E -0.933%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.60%EV -9.95%E -5.10%K -10.48%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.85%EV -12.66%E -4.02%K -5.89%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-14 18:00
Grosvenor🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.50%EV -3.45%E -0.933%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.72%EV -10.41%E -5.37%K -11.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -12.66%E -4.02%K -5.89%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-14 18:00
Unibet (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.50%EV -3.45%E -0.933%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.72%EV -10.41%E -5.37%K -11.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -12.66%E -4.02%K -5.89%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-14 18:00
Unibet (NL)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.50%EV -3.45%E -0.933%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.72%EV -10.41%E -5.37%K -11.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -12.66%E -4.02%K -5.89%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-14 18:00
TABtouch🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.50%EV -3.45%E -0.933%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.72%EV -10.41%E -5.37%K -11.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -12.66%E -4.02%K -5.89%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-14 18:00
Casumo🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.50%EV -3.45%E -0.933%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.72%EV -10.41%E -5.37%K -11.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -12.66%E -4.02%K -5.89%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-14 18:00
betPARX🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.50%EV -3.45%E -0.933%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.72%EV -10.41%E -5.37%K -11.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -12.66%E -4.02%K -5.89%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-14 17:59
ATG (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.50%EV -3.45%E -0.933%K -1.28%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 46.72%EV -10.41%E -5.37%K -11.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.78%EV -12.66%E -4.02%K -5.89%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-14 18:00
DraftKings🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.95%EV -4.76%E -1.30%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.20%EV -5.33%E -2.60%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.85%EV -5.73%E -1.68%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-14 18:40
Marathon Bet🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.55%EV -4.76%E -1.30%K -1.79%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 46.86%EV -8.11%E -4.07%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.59%EV -6.28%E -1.86%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-14 18:34
Coolbet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -6.06%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.40%EV -5.33%E -2.60%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.18%EV -2.95%E -0.844%K -1.18%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-14 18:09
Unibet (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -6.06%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.33%E -2.60%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -5.73%E -1.68%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-14 18:09
BetUS🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.21%EV -6.06%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.03%EV -5.33%E -2.60%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.75%EV -5.73%E -1.68%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-14 18:19
BetOnline.ag🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.06%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.15%EV -5.80%E -2.84%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.73%E -1.68%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-14 18:20
LowVig.ag🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -6.06%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 46.15%EV -5.80%E -2.84%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -5.73%E -1.68%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-14 18:19
1xBet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.06%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 46.52%EV -7.18%E -3.57%K -7.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.50%EV -5.73%E -1.68%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-14 18:34
Bet Victor🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -6.06%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -7.64%E -3.82%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.73%E -1.68%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-14 18:04
betano_uk🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -6.06%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -7.64%E -3.82%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.73%E -1.68%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-14 18:04
Unibet (FR)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -6.06%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.90%EV -8.57%E -4.33%K -8.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -5.73%E -1.68%K -2.39%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-14 18:14
BetMGM🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -6.06%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -7.64%E -3.82%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -8.50%E -2.58%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-14 17:59
SportsBet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.42%EV -6.06%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 45.98%EV -8.11%E -4.07%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -11.27%E -3.52%K -5.12%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-14 18:29
Paddy Power🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -6.06%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -9.95%E -5.10%K -10.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -14.05%E -4.53%K -6.69%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-14 18:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.95%EV -6.06%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.07%EV -9.95%E -5.10%K -10.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.98%EV -14.05%E -4.53%K -6.69%G +0.000%11.3%2026-08-14 18:35
BetRivers🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.78%EV -6.06%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 46.45%EV -11.34%E -5.91%K -12.32%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -14.05%E -4.53%K -6.69%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-14 18:00
Virgin Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.48%EV -6.06%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 46.63%EV -12.72%E -6.73%K -14.30%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.89%EV -15.43%E -5.06%K -7.53%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-14 18:00
LiveScore Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.48%EV -6.06%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 46.63%EV -12.72%E -6.73%K -14.30%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.89%EV -15.43%E -5.06%K -7.53%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-14 17:59
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.42%EV -6.06%E -1.68%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 46.76%EV -13.18%E -7.01%K -14.98%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.82%EV -15.43%E -5.06%K -7.53%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-14 18:00
Betclic (FR)🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.08%EV -7.36%E -2.07%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.29%EV -7.64%E -3.82%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.63%EV -7.11%E -2.12%K -3.03%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-14 18:19
Bovada🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 25.67%EV -7.36%E -2.07%K -2.89%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.72%EV -9.95%E -5.10%K -10.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.61%EV -8.50%E -2.58%K -3.70%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-14 18:23
Suprabets🎯3.51I 28.49%NM 25.92%EV -8.41%E -2.40%K -3.35%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.18%EV -9.03%E -4.58%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 27.90%EV -9.61%E -2.95%K -4.25%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-14 18:19
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -8.67%E -2.48%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.33%E -2.60%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.73%E -1.68%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-14 18:19
Betr (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -8.67%E -2.48%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -5.33%E -2.60%K -5.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.73%E -1.68%K -2.39%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-14 18:09
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -8.67%E -2.48%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -7.64%E -3.82%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -5.73%E -1.68%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-14 18:09
Betsson🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -8.67%E -2.48%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.48%EV -6.72%E -3.33%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -9.89%E -3.04%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-14 18:09
NordicBet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -8.67%E -2.48%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.48%EV -6.72%E -3.33%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.27%EV -9.89%E -3.04%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-14 18:09
Fanatics🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -8.67%E -2.48%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -7.64%E -3.82%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -8.50%E -2.58%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-14 18:00
888sport🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -8.67%E -2.48%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -7.64%E -3.82%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -11.27%E -3.52%K -5.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-14 17:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -8.67%E -2.48%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -7.64%E -3.82%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -11.27%E -3.52%K -5.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-14 18:00
888sport (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -8.67%E -2.48%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -7.64%E -3.82%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -11.27%E -3.52%K -5.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-14 18:00
William Hill🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.02%EV -8.67%E -2.48%K -3.47%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.53%EV -7.64%E -3.82%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -11.27%E -3.52%K -5.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-14 17:59
NetBet (FR)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.94%EV -8.67%E -2.48%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.55%EV -9.95%E -5.10%K -10.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -8.50%E -2.58%K -3.70%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-14 18:40
Sky Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 25.48%EV -8.67%E -2.48%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.74%EV -9.95%E -5.10%K -10.48%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.77%EV -14.05%E -4.53%K -6.69%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-14 18:29
Codere (IT)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.35%EV -9.97%E -2.89%K -4.07%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 45.68%EV -8.11%E -4.07%K -8.19%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.97%EV -9.89%E -3.04%K -4.39%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-14 18:14
Winamax (DE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -11.28%E -3.32%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -7.64%E -3.82%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -5.73%E -1.68%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-14 18:15
betfred_uk🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -11.28%E -3.32%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -7.64%E -3.82%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -5.73%E -1.68%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-14 18:09
Winamax (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -11.28%E -3.32%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -7.64%E -3.82%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -5.73%E -1.68%K -2.39%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-14 18:09
PlayUp🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -11.28%E -3.32%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.18%EV -7.64%E -3.82%K -7.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.24%EV -11.27%E -3.52%K -5.12%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-14 18:19
theScore Bet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -11.28%E -3.32%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.20%EV -9.95%E -5.10%K -10.48%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -8.50%E -2.58%K -3.70%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-14 18:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -11.28%E -3.32%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.95%E -5.10%K -10.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -11.27%E -3.52%K -5.12%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-14 18:00
Neds🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -11.28%E -3.32%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.95%E -5.10%K -10.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -11.27%E -3.52%K -5.12%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-14 18:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -11.28%E -3.32%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.95%E -5.10%K -10.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -11.27%E -3.52%K -5.12%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-14 18:00
Coral🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -11.28%E -3.32%K -4.70%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -9.95%E -5.10%K -10.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -11.27%E -3.52%K -5.12%G +0.000%11.9%2026-08-14 18:00
BoyleSports🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.13%EV -15.19%E -4.67%K -6.75%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.16%EV -11.80%E -6.18%K -12.97%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.72%EV -8.50%E -2.58%K -3.70%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-14 18:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.95I 25.32%NM 25.05%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.68%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.27%1.1%2026-08-14 18:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.95I 25.32%NM 25.05%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.68%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.27%1.1%2026-08-14 18:34
Matchbook3.95I 25.32%NM 25.05%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.68%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.27%1.1%2026-08-14 18:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.95I 25.32%NM 24.95%2.12I 47.17%NM 46.49%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.57%1.5%2026-08-14 18:25
Smarkets3.90I 25.64%NM 25.08%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.57%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.35%2.2%2026-08-14 18:35