Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Saint Etienne v Clermont

Kickoff: 2026-08-14 18:45 UTC

Final: Saint Etienne 3–1 Clermont

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Saint Etienne (Local)

Prediction 65.67%1.52fair odd
EV -4.77%
Edge -3.29%
Kelly -10.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.88%65.66%65.70%67.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.411.411.4573.53%71.08%70.92%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Clermont (Visit)

Prediction 13.49%7.41fair odd
EV +3.64%
Edge +0.474%
Kelly +0.545%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 7.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
12.45%13.56%13.42%14.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.006.726.757.6816.67%14.87%14.81%13.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.83%4.80fair odd
EV -2.09%
Edge -0.444%
Kelly -0.564%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.76%20.79%20.88%22.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.404.404.7025.00%22.74%22.73%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Saint Etienne (Local): 65.67%; Clermont (Visit): 13.49%; Draw: 20.83%. For Clermont (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.41. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.68, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.64%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.89%EV -6.09%E -4.26%K -14.16%G +0.000%7.68I 13.02%NM 12.45%EV +3.64%E +0.474%K +0.545%G +0.020%4.63I 21.60%NM 20.66%EV -3.55%E -0.766%K -0.977%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-14 18:30
betano_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.77%EV -8.06%E -5.76%K -20.15%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV +1.21%E +0.162%K +0.186%G +0.002%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -6.25%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-14 18:09
Marathon Bet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.14%EV -8.71%E -6.27%K -22.35%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.78%EV -1.49%E -0.204%K -0.236%G +0.000%4.65I 21.51%NM 20.07%EV -3.13%E -0.673%K -0.857%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-14 18:29
Coolbet🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 65.69%EV -4.77%E -3.29%K -10.61%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 13.14%EV -2.16%E -0.298%K -0.346%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.17%EV -6.25%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-14 18:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.95%EV -7.40%E -5.25%K -18.05%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.92%EV -2.84%E -0.394%K -0.458%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -8.34%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-14 18:29
LowVig.ag🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.95%EV -7.40%E -5.25%K -18.05%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.92%EV -2.84%E -0.394%K -0.458%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -8.34%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-14 18:29
BetUS🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.95%EV -7.40%E -5.25%K -18.05%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.92%EV -2.84%E -0.394%K -0.458%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.13%EV -8.34%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-14 18:29
Tipico (DE)🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 67.20%EV -10.03%E -7.32%K -27.10%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.79%EV -2.84%E -0.394%K -0.458%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.01%EV -4.17%E -0.907%K -1.16%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-14 18:30
DraftKings🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.00%EV -6.09%E -4.26%K -14.16%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.48%EV -5.54%E -0.791%K -0.923%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.52%EV -4.17%E -0.907%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-14 18:19
BetMGM🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.70%EV -6.09%E -4.26%K -14.16%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -5.54%E -0.791%K -0.923%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.88%EV -6.25%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-14 18:09
Betway🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 65.70%EV -6.09%E -4.26%K -14.16%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -5.54%E -0.791%K -0.923%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.88%EV -6.25%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-14 18:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 66.16%EV -6.74%E -4.75%K -16.06%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -5.54%E -0.791%K -0.923%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -4.17%E -0.907%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-14 18:04
Bet Victor🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.23%EV -5.43%E -3.77%K -12.34%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.42%EV -5.54%E -0.791%K -0.923%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.35%EV -8.34%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-14 18:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.55%EV -6.74%E -4.75%K -16.06%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.30%EV -5.54%E -0.791%K -0.923%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -8.34%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-14 18:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.47%EV -8.06%E -5.76%K -20.15%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.29%EV -5.54%E -0.791%K -0.923%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.23%EV -4.17%E -0.907%K -1.16%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-14 18:40
NetBet (FR)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.87%EV -8.06%E -5.76%K -20.15%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -5.54%E -0.791%K -0.923%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.96%EV -8.34%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-14 18:40
FanDuel🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.79%EV -9.37%E -6.79%K -24.66%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.17%EV -5.54%E -0.791%K -0.923%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.04%EV -4.17%E -0.907%K -1.16%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-14 18:30
SportsBet🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 66.66%EV -10.03%E -7.32%K -27.10%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.05%EV -5.54%E -0.791%K -0.923%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.29%EV -6.25%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-14 18:29
betfred_uk🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.22%EV -8.06%E -5.76%K -20.15%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -5.54%E -0.791%K -0.923%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -12.50%E -2.98%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-14 18:39
888sport🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.22%EV -8.06%E -5.76%K -20.15%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -5.54%E -0.791%K -0.923%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -12.50%E -2.98%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-14 18:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.22%EV -8.06%E -5.76%K -20.15%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -5.54%E -0.791%K -0.923%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -12.50%E -2.98%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-14 18:40
William Hill🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.22%EV -8.06%E -5.76%K -20.15%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -5.54%E -0.791%K -0.923%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -12.50%E -2.98%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-14 18:34
888sport (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.22%EV -8.06%E -5.76%K -20.15%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -5.54%E -0.791%K -0.923%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.74%EV -12.50%E -2.98%K -3.91%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-14 18:35
Paddy Power🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.52%EV -10.69%E -7.86%K -29.68%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.92%EV -5.54%E -0.791%K -0.923%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.56%EV -8.34%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-14 18:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.52%EV -10.69%E -7.86%K -29.68%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.92%EV -5.54%E -0.791%K -0.923%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.56%EV -8.34%E -1.89%K -2.45%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-14 18:35
1xBet🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.95%EV -5.43%E -3.77%K -12.34%G +0.000%6.98I 14.33%NM 13.40%EV -5.81%E -0.832%K -0.971%G +0.000%4.32I 23.15%NM 21.65%EV -10.00%E -2.32%K -3.01%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-14 18:34
Suprabets🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 65.72%EV -9.37%E -6.79%K -24.66%G +0.000%6.80I 14.71%NM 13.34%EV -8.24%E -1.21%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.94%EV -9.80%E -2.26%K -2.94%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-14 18:19
Betclic (FR)🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.69%EV -7.40%E -5.25%K -18.05%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.72%EV -8.91%E -1.32%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -6.25%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-14 18:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.59%EV -6.09%E -4.26%K -14.16%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.68%EV -8.91%E -1.32%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.73%EV -11.46%E -2.70%K -3.53%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-14 18:40
Bovada🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 65.07%EV -7.40%E -5.25%K -18.05%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.59%EV -8.91%E -1.32%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.34%EV -10.42%E -2.42%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-14 18:33
PlayUp🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 63.88%EV -6.74%E -4.75%K -16.06%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 13.44%EV -8.91%E -1.32%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.68%EV -16.67%E -4.17%K -5.56%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-14 18:34
NordicBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.87%EV -7.40%E -5.25%K -18.05%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.86%EV -10.93%E -1.66%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.27%EV -10.42%E -2.42%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-14 18:09
Betsson🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 64.87%EV -7.40%E -5.25%K -18.05%G +0.000%6.60I 15.15%NM 13.86%EV -10.93%E -1.66%K -1.95%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.27%EV -10.42%E -2.42%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-14 18:09
Fanatics🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -8.06%E -5.76%K -20.15%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.11%EV -12.28%E -1.89%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.38%EV -6.25%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-14 18:09
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.57%EV -8.06%E -5.76%K -20.15%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -12.28%E -1.89%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -12.50%E -2.98%K -3.91%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-14 18:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.57%EV -8.06%E -5.76%K -20.15%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -12.28%E -1.89%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -12.50%E -2.98%K -3.91%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-14 18:09
Neds🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.57%EV -8.06%E -5.76%K -20.15%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -12.28%E -1.89%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -12.50%E -2.98%K -3.91%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-14 18:09
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.57%EV -8.06%E -5.76%K -20.15%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -12.28%E -1.89%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -12.50%E -2.98%K -3.91%G +0.000%10.6%2026-08-14 18:09
theScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 64.90%EV -9.37%E -6.79%K -24.66%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -12.28%E -1.89%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.32%EV -12.50%E -2.98%K -3.91%G +0.000%11.7%2026-08-14 18:39
Sky Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 65.23%EV -10.69%E -7.86%K -29.68%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.65%EV -12.28%E -1.89%K -2.23%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.12%EV -12.50%E -2.98%K -3.91%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-14 18:29
Unibet (NL)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.88%EV -6.09%E -4.26%K -14.16%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.50%EV -13.63%E -2.13%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.62%EV -6.25%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-14 18:05
TABtouch🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.88%EV -6.09%E -4.26%K -14.16%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.50%EV -13.63%E -2.13%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.62%EV -6.25%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-14 18:04
Casumo🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.88%EV -6.09%E -4.26%K -14.16%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.50%EV -13.63%E -2.13%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.62%EV -6.25%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-14 18:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.88%EV -6.09%E -4.26%K -14.16%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.50%EV -13.63%E -2.13%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.62%EV -6.25%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-14 18:00
betPARX🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.88%EV -6.09%E -4.26%K -14.16%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.50%EV -13.63%E -2.13%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.62%EV -6.25%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-14 18:04
PMU (FR)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.88%EV -6.09%E -4.26%K -14.16%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.50%EV -13.63%E -2.13%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.62%EV -6.25%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-14 18:00
Unibet🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.88%EV -6.09%E -4.26%K -14.16%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.50%EV -13.63%E -2.13%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.62%EV -6.25%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-14 18:04
Grosvenor🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.88%EV -6.09%E -4.26%K -14.16%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.50%EV -13.63%E -2.13%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.62%EV -6.25%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-14 18:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.88%EV -6.09%E -4.26%K -14.16%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.50%EV -13.63%E -2.13%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.62%EV -6.25%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-14 18:00
Svenska Spel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 64.88%EV -6.09%E -4.26%K -14.16%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.50%EV -13.63%E -2.13%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.62%EV -6.25%E -1.39%K -1.79%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-14 18:04
Codere (IT)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.75%EV -8.06%E -5.76%K -20.15%G +0.000%6.40I 15.63%NM 14.16%EV -13.63%E -2.13%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.08%EV -10.42%E -2.42%K -3.16%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-14 18:09
Winamax (DE)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.39%EV -6.74%E -4.75%K -16.06%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -15.66%E -2.51%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.76%EV -2.09%E -0.444%K -0.564%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-14 18:09
Winamax (FR)🎯1.42I 70.42%NM 65.39%EV -6.74%E -4.75%K -16.06%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.86%EV -15.66%E -2.51%K -2.98%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.76%EV -2.09%E -0.444%K -0.564%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-14 18:09
BetRivers🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 64.30%EV -8.06%E -5.76%K -20.15%G +0.000%6.10I 16.39%NM 14.76%EV -17.68%E -2.90%K -3.47%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 20.94%EV -10.42%E -2.42%K -3.16%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-14 18:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 64.32%EV -9.37%E -6.79%K -24.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.79%EV -19.03%E -3.17%K -3.81%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.89%EV -11.46%E -2.70%K -3.53%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-14 18:04
LiveScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 64.32%EV -9.37%E -6.79%K -24.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.79%EV -19.03%E -3.17%K -3.81%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.89%EV -11.46%E -2.70%K -3.53%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-14 18:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 64.32%EV -9.37%E -6.79%K -24.66%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.79%EV -19.03%E -3.17%K -3.81%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 20.89%EV -11.46%E -2.70%K -3.53%G +0.000%12.7%2026-08-14 18:04
BoyleSports🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 64.90%EV -10.69%E -7.86%K -29.68%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 14.71%EV -19.03%E -3.17%K -3.81%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.39%EV -9.80%E -2.26%K -2.94%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-14 18:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook1.47I 68.03%NM 67.80%8.40I 11.90%NM 11.86%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.34%0.3%2026-08-14 18:40
Smarkets1.47I 68.03%NM 67.60%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.12%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.28%0.6%2026-08-14 18:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.47I 68.03%NM 67.60%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.12%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.28%0.6%2026-08-14 18:40
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.47I 68.03%NM 67.60%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.12%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.28%0.6%2026-08-14 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.47I 68.03%NM 67.60%8.20I 12.20%NM 12.12%4.90I 20.41%NM 20.28%0.6%2026-08-14 18:40