Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pau FC v Nancy

Kickoff: 2026-08-21 18:00 UTC

Final: Pau FC 0–1 Nancy

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pau FC (Local)

Prediction 36.78%2.72fair odd
EV -2.16%
Edge -0.813%
Kelly -1.30%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.39%37.07%36.76%40.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.462.502.6645.45%40.69%40.00%37.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nancy (Visit)

Prediction 33.84%2.95fair odd
EV -3.20%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.39%33.66%33.78%34.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.732.752.8638.46%36.57%36.36%34.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.37%3.40fair odd
EV -0.127%
Edge -0.037%
Kelly -0.053%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.95%29.28%29.46%30.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.153.153.4033.33%31.76%31.75%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pau FC (Local): 36.78%; Nancy (Visit): 33.84%; Draw: 29.37%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.404. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.400, with an expected value of -0.127%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.66I 37.59%NM 36.18%EV -2.16%E -0.813%K -1.30%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.12%EV -4.56%E -1.62%K -2.50%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.70%EV -4.83%E -1.49%K -2.15%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-21 17:54
1xBet🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 35.39%EV -2.90%E -1.10%K -1.77%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 34.47%EV -8.28%E -3.06%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.14%EV -8.94%E -2.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-21 17:49
Unibet (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.26%EV -4.37%E -1.68%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.28%EV -6.93%E -2.52%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -6.00%E -1.88%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-21 17:39
DraftKings🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.26%EV -4.37%E -1.68%K -2.73%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.28%EV -6.93%E -2.52%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.46%EV -6.00%E -1.88%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-21 17:54
betano_uk🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -6.21%E -2.43%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.61%EV -8.62%E -3.19%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-21 17:55
Bet Victor🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -6.21%E -2.43%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.61%EV -8.62%E -3.19%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.75%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-21 17:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.55%EV -6.21%E -2.43%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.76I 36.23%NM 33.77%EV -6.59%E -2.39%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.68%EV -7.76%E -2.47%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-21 17:54
BetUS🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -6.21%E -2.43%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.72%EV -6.93%E -2.52%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.91%EV -8.94%E -2.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-21 17:54
Betclic (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV -6.21%E -2.43%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.23%EV -8.62%E -3.19%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 29.53%EV -8.06%E -2.57%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-21 17:43
BetMGM🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.14%EV -6.21%E -2.43%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.13%EV -8.62%E -3.19%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.73%EV -8.94%E -2.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-21 17:24
NordicBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.05%EV -6.21%E -2.43%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.80%EV -7.94%E -2.92%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.14%EV -10.41%E -3.41%K -5.08%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-21 17:39
Betsson🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.05%EV -6.21%E -2.43%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.80%EV -7.94%E -2.92%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.14%EV -10.41%E -3.41%K -5.08%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-21 17:39
Bovada🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.96%EV -6.21%E -2.43%K -4.01%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.97%EV -8.62%E -3.19%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.07%EV -10.41%E -3.41%K -5.08%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-21 17:49
BetOnline.ag🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 36.93%EV -6.58%E -2.59%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.80%EV -3.20%E -1.12%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -8.94%E -2.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-21 17:49
LowVig.ag🎯2.54I 39.37%NM 36.93%EV -6.58%E -2.59%K -4.27%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.80%EV -3.20%E -1.12%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.26%EV -8.94%E -2.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-21 17:49
Coolbet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.05%EV -8.05%E -3.22%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.97%EV -5.23%E -1.87%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -0.127%E -0.037%K -0.053%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-21 14:59
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.05%E -3.22%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -6.93%E -2.52%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -3.06%E -0.929%K -1.33%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-21 15:00
FanDuel🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.40%EV -8.05%E -3.22%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -5.23%E -1.87%K -2.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.22%EV -6.00%E -1.88%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-21 17:44
Unibet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -8.05%E -3.22%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -6.93%E -2.52%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -6.00%E -1.88%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-21 17:39
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.17%EV -8.05%E -3.22%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.79%EV -6.93%E -2.52%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.04%EV -6.00%E -1.88%K -2.73%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-21 17:49
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -8.05%E -3.22%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -8.62%E -3.19%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -6.00%E -1.88%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-21 17:39
Winamax (DE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.94%EV -8.05%E -3.22%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.20%EV -8.62%E -3.19%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -6.00%E -1.88%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-21 17:39
SportsBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -8.05%E -3.22%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -6.93%E -2.52%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -8.94%E -2.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-21 17:44
Fanatics🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.83%EV -8.05%E -3.22%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.48%EV -6.93%E -2.52%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.70%EV -8.94%E -2.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-21 17:54
NetBet (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.69%EV -8.05%E -3.22%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.72%EV -7.94%E -2.92%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.59%EV -8.94%E -2.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-21 17:39
888sport🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -8.05%E -3.22%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -6.93%E -2.52%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -11.88%E -3.96%K -5.94%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-21 17:25
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -8.05%E -3.22%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -6.93%E -2.52%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -11.88%E -3.96%K -5.94%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-21 17:24
888sport (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -8.05%E -3.22%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -6.93%E -2.52%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -11.88%E -3.96%K -5.94%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-21 17:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.46%EV -8.05%E -3.22%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.15%EV -6.93%E -2.52%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -11.88%E -3.96%K -5.94%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-21 17:25
Codere (IT)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.19%EV -8.05%E -3.22%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.14%EV -10.31%E -3.89%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.67%EV -10.41%E -3.41%K -5.08%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-21 17:50
PlayUp🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.13%EV -8.05%E -3.22%K -5.37%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.74%EV -12.00%E -4.62%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.13%EV -8.94%E -2.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-21 17:54
Suprabets🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.68%EV -8.78%E -3.54%K -5.93%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 33.20%EV -7.27%E -2.65%K -4.18%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.12%EV -11.29%E -3.74%K -5.59%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-21 15:07
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.81%EV -9.89%E -4.04%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.69%EV -6.93%E -2.52%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.50%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-21 14:59
Paddy Power🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.07%EV -9.89%E -4.04%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.64%EV -8.62%E -3.19%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.30%EV -8.94%E -2.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-21 17:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.07%EV -9.89%E -4.04%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.64%EV -8.62%E -3.19%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.30%EV -8.94%E -2.88%K -4.26%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-21 17:49
Sky Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.71%EV -9.89%E -4.04%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.31%EV -8.62%E -3.19%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.98%EV -11.88%E -3.96%K -5.94%G +0.000%11.2%2026-08-21 17:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.39%EV -9.89%E -4.04%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.90%EV -10.99%E -4.18%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.72%EV -11.88%E -3.96%K -5.94%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-21 17:25
Neds🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.39%EV -9.89%E -4.04%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.90%EV -10.99%E -4.18%K -6.74%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.72%EV -11.88%E -3.96%K -5.94%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-21 17:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.34%EV -9.89%E -4.04%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.98%EV -11.33%E -4.32%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.68%EV -11.88%E -3.96%K -5.94%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-21 17:25
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.34%EV -9.89%E -4.04%K -6.82%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.98%EV -11.33%E -4.32%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.68%EV -11.88%E -3.96%K -5.94%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-21 17:25
PMU (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -11.73%E -4.89%K -8.38%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -3.54%E -1.24%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.00%EV -1.60%E -0.476%K -0.679%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-21 17:54
Svenska Spel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -11.73%E -4.89%K -8.38%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.91%EV -3.54%E -1.24%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.00%EV -1.60%E -0.476%K -0.679%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-21 17:54
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -11.73%E -4.89%K -8.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -6.93%E -2.52%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -6.00%E -1.88%K -2.73%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-21 14:59
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.89%EV -11.73%E -4.89%K -8.38%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.68%EV -8.62%E -3.19%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.42%EV -6.00%E -1.88%K -2.73%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-21 14:59
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.01%EV -12.46%E -5.24%K -9.03%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 33.62%EV -11.33%E -4.32%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.36%EV -11.88%E -3.96%K -5.94%G +0.000%13.5%2026-08-21 17:34
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -13.56%E -5.77%K -10.05%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -3.54%E -1.24%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -6.00%E -1.88%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-21 17:29
Grosvenor🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.00%EV -14.30%E -6.14%K -10.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.04%EV -6.93%E -2.52%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.96%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-21 17:54
Casumo🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.00%EV -14.30%E -6.14%K -10.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.04%EV -6.93%E -2.52%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.96%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-21 17:54
Unibet (NL)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.00%EV -14.30%E -6.14%K -10.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.04%EV -6.93%E -2.52%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.96%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-21 17:54
Unibet (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.00%EV -14.30%E -6.14%K -10.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.04%EV -6.93%E -2.52%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.96%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-21 17:54
betPARX🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.00%EV -14.30%E -6.14%K -10.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.04%EV -6.93%E -2.52%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.96%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-21 17:54
ATG (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.00%EV -14.30%E -6.14%K -10.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.04%EV -6.93%E -2.52%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.96%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-21 17:54
TABtouch🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.00%EV -14.30%E -6.14%K -10.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.04%EV -6.93%E -2.52%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.96%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-21 17:54
Unibet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.00%EV -14.30%E -6.14%K -10.75%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.04%EV -6.93%E -2.52%K -3.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.96%EV -4.53%E -1.39%K -2.01%G +0.000%10.1%2026-08-21 17:54
Virgin Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.25%EV -17.24%E -7.66%K -13.79%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.71%EV -8.62%E -3.19%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.04%EV -7.47%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-21 17:54
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.25%EV -17.24%E -7.66%K -13.79%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.71%EV -8.62%E -3.19%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.04%EV -7.47%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-21 17:54
LiveScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.25%EV -17.24%E -7.66%K -13.79%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.71%EV -8.62%E -3.19%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.04%EV -7.47%E -2.37%K -3.47%G +0.000%13.2%2026-08-21 17:54
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.66%EV -19.08%E -8.67%K -15.90%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.39%EV -3.54%E -1.24%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.95%EV -6.00%E -1.88%K -2.73%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-21 11:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.70I 37.04%NM 36.79%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.56%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.65%0.7%2026-08-21 17:49
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.70I 37.04%NM 36.79%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.56%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.65%0.7%2026-08-21 17:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 36.79%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.56%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.65%0.7%2026-08-21 17:50
Matchbook2.70I 37.04%NM 36.79%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.56%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.65%0.7%2026-08-21 17:50
Smarkets2.70I 37.04%NM 36.63%2.96I 33.78%NM 33.41%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.97%1.1%2026-08-21 17:54