The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Pau FC v Grenoble

Kickoff: 2026-10-23 18:00 UTC

Final: Pau FC 2–1 Grenoble

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pau FC (Local)

Prediction 49.84%2.01fair odd
EV -4.31%
Edge -2.25%
Kelly -4.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.43%49.95%49.85%52.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.721.841.851.9258.14%54.34%54.05%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Grenoble (Visit)

Prediction 22.71%4.40fair odd
EV +3.32%
Edge +0.730%
Kelly +0.936%
Growth +0.031%

assuming max odds 4.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.08%22.56%22.74%23.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.754.054.004.5526.67%24.68%25.00%21.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.45%3.64fair odd
EV -3.91%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.52%27.49%27.41%28.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.333.303.5031.25%30.00%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pau FC (Local): 49.84%; Grenoble (Visit): 22.71%; Draw: 27.45%. For Grenoble (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.40. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.32%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 50.77%EV -5.81%E -3.07%K -6.53%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.09%EV +3.32%E +0.730%K +0.936%G +0.031%3.41I 29.33%NM 28.14%EV -6.38%E -1.87%K -2.65%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-23 15:07
Tipico (DE)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 52.54%EV -14.28%E -8.30%K -19.83%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.08%EV +2.19%E +0.486%K +0.625%G +0.014%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -9.40%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-23 11:04
DraftKings🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.38%EV -6.81%E -3.64%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -2.35%E -0.548%K -0.713%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -6.65%E -1.96%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-23 07:24
Coolbet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.12%EV -5.31%E -2.79%K -5.90%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.67%EV -4.63%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.21%EV -3.91%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-23 06:40
BetOnline.ag🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.04%EV -4.31%E -2.25%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.42%EV -4.63%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -9.40%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-23 15:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.04%EV -4.31%E -2.25%K -4.69%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.42%EV -4.63%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.54%EV -9.40%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-23 15:25
Betway🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.99%EV -6.31%E -3.35%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -4.63%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.64%EV -6.65%E -1.96%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-23 15:25
BetUS🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.18%EV -4.81%E -2.52%K -5.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.36%EV -4.63%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -9.40%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-23 15:06
Unibet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.59%EV -7.80%E -4.22%K -9.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -4.63%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -5.28%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-20 09:04
Unibet (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.59%EV -7.80%E -4.22%K -9.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -4.63%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -5.28%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-20 09:05
Casumo🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.59%EV -7.80%E -4.22%K -9.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -4.63%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -5.28%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-20 09:05
Grosvenor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.59%EV -7.80%E -4.22%K -9.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -4.63%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -5.28%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-20 09:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.59%EV -7.80%E -4.22%K -9.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -4.63%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -5.28%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-20 09:05
TABtouch🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.59%EV -7.80%E -4.22%K -9.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -4.63%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -5.28%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-20 09:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.59%EV -7.80%E -4.22%K -9.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -4.63%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -5.28%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-20 09:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.59%EV -7.80%E -4.22%K -9.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -4.63%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -5.28%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-20 09:05
betPARX🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.59%EV -7.80%E -4.22%K -9.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.28%EV -4.63%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -5.28%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-20 09:05
888sport🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -7.80%E -4.22%K -9.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.82%EV -4.63%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -12.14%E -3.80%K -5.52%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-23 14:20
William Hill🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -7.80%E -4.22%K -9.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.82%EV -4.63%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -12.14%E -3.80%K -5.52%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-23 14:21
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -7.80%E -4.22%K -9.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.82%EV -4.63%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -12.14%E -3.80%K -5.52%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-23 14:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.54%EV -7.80%E -4.22%K -9.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.82%EV -4.63%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.64%EV -12.14%E -3.80%K -5.52%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-23 14:20
Marathon Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.25%EV -7.80%E -4.22%K -9.18%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.40%EV -5.76%E -1.39%K -1.83%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -6.65%E -1.96%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-23 15:06
1xBet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.96%EV -6.81%E -3.64%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.14I 24.15%NM 22.57%EV -5.99%E -1.45%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.48%EV -6.65%E -1.96%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-23 15:06
FanDuel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.85%EV -6.81%E -3.64%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -6.90%E -1.68%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -6.65%E -1.96%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-23 14:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.85%EV -6.81%E -3.64%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -6.90%E -1.68%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -6.65%E -1.96%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-23 14:43
Fanatics🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.17%EV -5.81%E -3.07%K -6.53%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -6.90%E -1.68%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.16%EV -9.40%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-23 03:44
Betr (AU)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.82%EV -6.31%E -3.35%K -7.17%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -9.17%E -2.29%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -3.91%E -1.12%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-23 06:46
BetMGM🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 49.30%EV -5.81%E -3.07%K -6.53%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -9.17%E -2.29%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.41%EV -6.65%E -1.96%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-23 15:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.57%EV -6.81%E -3.64%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.17%EV -9.17%E -2.29%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.26%EV -6.65%E -1.96%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-23 06:40
Bovada🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.16%EV -6.81%E -3.64%K -7.82%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.98%EV -9.17%E -2.29%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -9.40%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-23 15:45
SportsBet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.77%EV -8.30%E -4.51%K -9.88%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.89%EV -9.17%E -2.29%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -8.03%E -2.40%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-23 14:41
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -7.80%E -4.22%K -9.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -9.17%E -2.29%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -9.40%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-23 06:40
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -7.80%E -4.22%K -9.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -9.17%E -2.29%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -9.40%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-23 06:39
Bet Victor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -7.80%E -4.22%K -9.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -9.17%E -2.29%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -9.40%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-23 15:21
betano_uk🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.43%EV -7.80%E -4.22%K -9.18%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.86%EV -9.17%E -2.29%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.71%EV -9.40%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-23 15:17
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.11%EV -10.29%E -5.72%K -12.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -9.17%E -2.29%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.33%EV -9.40%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-23 15:07
BetRivers🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.39%EV -11.29%E -6.34%K -14.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.42%EV -9.17%E -2.29%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -9.40%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-20 09:05
Virgin Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.39%EV -11.29%E -6.34%K -14.47%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.42%EV -9.17%E -2.29%K -3.06%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -9.40%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-20 09:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.99%EV -9.30%E -5.11%K -11.34%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 22.86%EV -9.62%E -2.42%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.16%EV -8.03%E -2.40%K -3.42%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-23 14:20
Codere (IT)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.42%EV -8.30%E -4.51%K -9.88%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.02%EV -10.30%E -2.61%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.56%EV -9.40%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-23 06:47
NetBet (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.70%EV -9.30%E -5.11%K -11.34%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.90%EV -10.30%E -2.61%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.41%EV -9.40%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-23 15:06
picklebet_au🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.97%EV -10.29%E -5.72%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.77%EV -10.30%E -2.61%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.26%EV -9.40%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-23 06:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.32%EV -12.29%E -6.98%K -16.17%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.42%EV -10.30%E -2.61%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.25%EV -10.77%E -3.31%K -4.79%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-20 10:35
PMU (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.32%EV -12.29%E -6.98%K -16.17%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.42%EV -10.30%E -2.61%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.25%EV -10.77%E -3.31%K -4.79%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-23 07:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 50.32%EV -12.29%E -6.98%K -16.17%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.42%EV -10.30%E -2.61%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.25%EV -10.77%E -3.31%K -4.79%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-20 09:04
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.23%EV -10.29%E -5.72%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.18%EV -11.44%E -2.93%K -3.94%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.59%EV -6.65%E -1.96%K -2.77%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-23 06:39
Winamax (DE)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 49.72%EV -8.30%E -4.51%K -9.88%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.76%EV -12.57%E -3.27%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.52%EV -5.28%E -1.53%K -2.16%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-23 06:40
PlayUp🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.99%EV -7.80%E -4.22%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.54%EV -12.57%E -3.27%K -4.41%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.47%EV -9.40%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-23 15:06
Winamax (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.65%EV -9.30%E -5.11%K -11.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -13.71%E -3.61%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.58%EV -6.65%E -1.96%K -2.77%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-23 06:40
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.43%EV -7.80%E -4.22%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.58%EV -13.71%E -3.61%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -12.14%E -3.80%K -5.52%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-23 15:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.43%EV -7.80%E -4.22%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.58%EV -13.71%E -3.61%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -12.14%E -3.80%K -5.52%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-23 15:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.43%EV -7.80%E -4.22%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.58%EV -13.71%E -3.61%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -12.14%E -3.80%K -5.52%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-23 15:50
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.43%EV -7.80%E -4.22%K -9.18%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.58%EV -13.71%E -3.61%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -12.14%E -3.80%K -5.52%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-23 15:45
Sky Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.11%EV -10.29%E -5.72%K -12.87%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.26%EV -13.71%E -3.61%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.63%EV -12.14%E -3.80%K -5.52%G +0.000%13.1%2026-10-23 15:06
BoyleSports🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 50.23%EV -12.79%E -7.31%K -17.05%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.13%EV -13.71%E -3.61%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.64%EV -9.40%E -2.85%K -4.09%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-23 07:04
Unibet (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 50.25%EV -14.28%E -8.30%K -19.83%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.74%EV -13.71%E -3.61%K -4.90%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.01%EV -12.14%E -3.80%K -5.52%G +0.000%15.7%2026-10-23 06:40
betfred_uk🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.75%EV -8.80%E -4.81%K -10.60%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.79%EV -14.84%E -3.96%K -5.40%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.45%EV -10.77%E -3.31%K -4.79%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-23 06:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.60%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.66%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.74%0.8%2026-10-23 15:50
Matchbook◎1.95I 51.28%NM 50.72%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.61%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.67%1.1%2026-10-23 15:18
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.38%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.57%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.04%1.3%2026-10-23 15:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.38%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.57%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.04%1.3%2026-10-23 15:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.96I 51.02%NM 50.38%4.80I 20.83%NM 20.57%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.04%1.3%2026-10-23 15:35