Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nancy v USL Dunkerque

Kickoff: 2026-08-28 18:00 UTC

Final: Nancy 2–0 USL Dunkerque

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nancy (Local)

Prediction 39.43%2.54fair odd
EV -1.43%
Edge -0.574%
Kelly -0.956%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.44%39.39%39.49%40.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.362.352.5045.45%42.41%42.55%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

USL Dunkerque (Visit)

Prediction 32.74%3.05fair odd
EV -1.12%
Edge -0.370%
Kelly -0.553%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.92%32.77%32.66%34.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.792.803.0238.46%35.82%35.71%33.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.83%3.59fair odd
EV -2.59%
Edge -0.741%
Kelly -1.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.52%27.83%27.84%28.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.293.303.5031.75%30.39%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nancy (Local): 39.43%; USL Dunkerque (Visit): 32.74%; Draw: 27.83%. For USL Dunkerque (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.05. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.02, with an expected value of -1.12%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.50%EV -1.43%E -0.574%K -0.956%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.77%EV -6.68%E -2.34%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.74%EV -3.43%E -0.988%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-28 17:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -2.22%E -0.896%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.40%EV -11.59%E -4.29%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-28 17:25
Unibet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -2.22%E -0.896%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.40%EV -11.59%E -4.29%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-28 17:25
Grosvenor🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -2.22%E -0.896%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.40%EV -11.59%E -4.29%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-28 17:25
PMU (FR)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -2.22%E -0.896%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.40%EV -11.59%E -4.29%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-28 17:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -2.22%E -0.896%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.40%EV -11.59%E -4.29%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-28 17:25
Casumo🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -2.22%E -0.896%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.40%EV -11.59%E -4.29%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-28 17:25
TABtouch🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -2.22%E -0.896%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.40%EV -11.59%E -4.29%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-28 17:25
betPARX🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -2.22%E -0.896%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.40%EV -11.59%E -4.29%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-28 17:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -2.22%E -0.896%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.40%EV -11.59%E -4.29%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-28 17:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.45%EV -2.22%E -0.896%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.40%EV -11.59%E -4.29%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-28 17:25
Coolbet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.56%EV -5.38%E -2.24%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.31%EV -6.68%E -2.34%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.13%EV -2.59%E -0.741%K -1.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-28 17:50
BetUS🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.29%EV -5.38%E -2.24%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.97%EV -6.36%E -2.22%K -3.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%EV -5.38%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-28 17:55
DraftKings🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.25%EV -5.38%E -2.24%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -6.68%E -2.34%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -5.38%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-28 17:45
LowVig.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -5.38%E -2.24%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.68%EV -5.70%E -1.98%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.10%EV -6.77%E -2.02%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-28 17:51
BetOnline.ag🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.22%EV -5.38%E -2.24%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.68%EV -5.70%E -1.98%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.10%EV -6.77%E -2.02%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-28 17:51
Betway🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.22%EV -6.17%E -2.59%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.32%E -2.97%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -5.38%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 17:55
Bet Victor🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.22%EV -6.17%E -2.59%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.32%E -2.97%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -5.38%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 17:48
betano_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.22%EV -6.17%E -2.59%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.32%E -2.97%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -5.38%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 17:49
BetRivers🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.44%EV -6.17%E -2.59%K -4.47%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.27%EV -14.87%E -5.72%K -9.29%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.29%EV -12.33%E -3.92%K -5.74%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-28 17:25
Betclic (FR)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 38.99%EV -6.56%E -2.77%K -4.79%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.00%EV -8.32%E -2.97%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.00%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-28 17:50
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.83%EV -7.35%E -3.13%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -8.32%E -2.97%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -2.59%E -0.741%K -1.04%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-28 17:51
Unibet (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.64%EV -7.35%E -3.13%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -5.05%E -1.74%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-28 17:50
Unibet (UK)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.64%EV -7.35%E -3.13%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13%EV -5.05%E -1.74%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-28 17:50
BetMGM🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.56%EV -7.35%E -3.13%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.28%EV -5.70%E -1.98%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.17%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-28 17:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.52%EV -7.35%E -3.13%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -8.32%E -2.97%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -5.38%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-28 17:51
FanDuel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.42%EV -7.35%E -3.13%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.51%EV -6.68%E -2.34%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.07%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-28 17:54
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.08%EV -7.35%E -3.13%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.22%EV -6.68%E -2.34%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.70%EV -10.94%E -3.42%K -4.97%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-28 17:30
Fanatics🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -7.35%E -3.13%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.29%EV -9.96%E -3.62%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.74%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-28 17:51
Suprabets🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.71%EV -7.35%E -3.13%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.71I 36.90%NM 33.56%EV -11.27%E -4.16%K -6.59%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 27.73%EV -8.71%E -2.66%K -3.82%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-28 17:55
Virgin Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.74%EV -7.35%E -3.13%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.11%EV -14.87%E -5.72%K -9.29%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.15%EV -12.33%E -3.92%K -5.74%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-28 17:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.74%EV -7.35%E -3.13%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.11%EV -14.87%E -5.72%K -9.29%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.15%EV -12.33%E -3.92%K -5.74%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-28 17:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.74%EV -7.35%E -3.13%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.11%EV -14.87%E -5.72%K -9.29%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.15%EV -12.33%E -3.92%K -5.74%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-28 17:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.02%EV -8.14%E -3.49%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.72%EV -6.68%E -2.34%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.26%EV -4.82%E -1.41%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-28 17:49
Betsson🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.60%EV -8.53%E -3.68%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.68%EV -5.05%E -1.74%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -10.94%E -3.42%K -4.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-28 17:51
NordicBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 39.60%EV -8.53%E -3.68%K -6.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.68%EV -5.05%E -1.74%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.71%EV -10.94%E -3.42%K -4.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-28 17:50
1xBet🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 40.43%EV -8.93%E -3.86%K -6.81%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.92%EV -1.12%E -0.370%K -0.553%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 28.65%EV -9.27%E -2.84%K -4.10%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 17:51
Winamax (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -6.68%E -2.34%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.53%EV -6.77%E -2.02%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-28 17:51
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.36%EV -6.68%E -2.34%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.53%EV -6.77%E -2.02%K -2.88%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-28 17:50
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.21%EV -3.41%E -1.16%K -1.75%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -10.94%E -3.42%K -4.97%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-28 17:55
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -5.05%E -1.74%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -9.55%E -2.94%K -4.24%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-28 17:55
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -5.05%E -1.74%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -9.55%E -2.94%K -4.24%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-28 17:55
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -5.05%E -1.74%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -9.55%E -2.94%K -4.24%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-28 17:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.99%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.71%EV -5.05%E -1.74%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.30%EV -9.55%E -2.94%K -4.24%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-28 17:55
betfred_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.80%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -9.96%E -3.62%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -5.38%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-28 17:50
SportsBet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.71%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.62%EV -8.32%E -2.97%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -8.16%E -2.47%K -3.55%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-28 17:51
NetBet (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.63%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 32.32%EV -7.66%E -2.72%K -4.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.05%EV -9.55%E -2.94%K -4.24%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-28 17:54
Paddy Power🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -8.32%E -2.97%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -9.55%E -2.94%K -4.24%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-28 17:51
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.54%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.48%EV -8.32%E -2.97%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.98%EV -9.55%E -2.94%K -4.24%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-28 17:51
PlayUp🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.37%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.34%EV -8.32%E -2.97%K -4.62%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.30%EV -10.94%E -3.42%K -4.97%G +0.000%10.4%2026-08-28 17:55
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.14%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -9.96%E -3.62%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -10.94%E -3.42%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-28 17:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.14%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -9.96%E -3.62%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -10.94%E -3.42%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-28 17:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.14%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -9.96%E -3.62%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -10.94%E -3.42%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-28 17:55
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.14%EV -9.32%E -4.05%K -7.17%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.73%EV -9.96%E -3.62%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -10.94%E -3.42%K -4.97%G +0.000%11.1%2026-08-28 17:55
Codere (IT)🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 39.70%EV -9.71%E -4.24%K -7.53%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.90%EV -6.68%E -2.34%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.41%EV -10.94%E -3.42%K -4.97%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-28 17:51
theScore Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.08%EV -11.29%E -5.02%K -9.03%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.40%EV -11.59%E -4.29%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.52%EV -5.38%E -1.58%K -2.24%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-28 17:51
Sky Bet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.66%EV -11.29%E -5.02%K -9.03%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.45%EV -9.96%E -3.62%K -5.69%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.89%EV -10.94%E -3.42%K -4.97%G +0.000%12.1%2026-08-28 17:51
BoyleSports🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.96%EV -13.26%E -6.03%K -11.05%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.56%EV -11.59%E -4.29%K -6.82%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.47%EV -10.94%E -3.42%K -4.97%G +0.000%13.7%2026-08-28 17:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.48I 40.32%NM 40.18%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.14%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.68%0.4%2026-08-28 17:55
Matchbook2.46I 40.65%NM 40.37%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.04%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.59%0.7%2026-08-28 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.48I 40.32%NM 39.97%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.50%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.53%0.9%2026-08-28 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.48I 40.32%NM 39.75%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.86%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.39%1.4%2026-08-28 17:55
Smarkets2.46I 40.65%NM 39.71%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.78%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.52%2.4%2026-08-28 17:55