Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nancy v Montpellier

Kickoff: 2026-08-14 18:45 UTC

Final: Nancy 0–1 Montpellier

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nancy (Local)

Prediction 35.18%2.84fair odd
EV -3.96%
Edge -1.45%
Kelly -2.29%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.48%35.21%35.18%35.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.612.622.7340.00%38.32%38.17%36.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Montpellier (Visit)

Prediction 36.01%2.78fair odd
EV -0.240%
Edge -0.087%
Kelly -0.135%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.15%35.96%36.00%37.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.382.562.552.7742.02%39.04%39.22%36.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.81%3.47fair odd
EV -2.06%
Edge -0.607%
Kelly -0.860%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.46%28.84%28.81%30.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.193.203.4033.33%31.39%31.25%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nancy (Local): 35.18%; Montpellier (Visit): 36.01%; Draw: 28.81%. For Montpellier (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.78. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.77, with an expected value of -0.240%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.73I 36.63%NM 35.29%EV -3.96%E -1.45%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.77I 36.10%NM 34.78%EV -0.240%E -0.087%K -0.135%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.92%EV -7.25%E -2.25%K -3.26%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-14 18:30
Coolbet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.30%EV -5.01%E -1.86%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.66%EV -6.36%E -2.45%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.04%EV -2.06%E -0.607%K -0.860%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-13 12:09
DraftKings🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.09%EV -5.01%E -1.86%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 35.75%EV -4.56%E -1.72%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.15%EV -6.38%E -1.96%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-14 18:19
BetUS🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.00%EV -5.01%E -1.86%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.00%EV -2.76%E -1.02%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -9.26%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-14 18:19
Unibet (UK)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.85%EV -5.01%E -1.86%K -2.95%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.19%EV -6.36%E -2.45%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.95%EV -6.38%E -1.96%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-14 18:29
LowVig.ag🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.17%EV -5.72%E -2.13%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -2.76%E -1.02%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.92%EV -9.26%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-14 18:19
BetOnline.ag🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 35.17%EV -5.72%E -2.13%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV -2.76%E -1.02%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.92%EV -9.26%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-14 18:20
1xBet🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 35.01%EV -6.07%E -2.27%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -6.36%E -2.45%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.03%EV -7.25%E -2.25%K -3.26%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-14 18:34
Betclic (FR)🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 34.70%EV -6.07%E -2.27%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.34%EV -8.16%E -3.20%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.96%EV -7.82%E -2.44%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-14 18:29
Betr (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.18%EV -6.77%E -2.56%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.56%EV -8.16%E -3.20%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.25%EV -4.94%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-13 12:05
BetMGM🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.03%EV -6.77%E -2.56%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.40%EV -8.16%E -3.20%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.56%EV -6.38%E -1.96%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-14 18:19
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.93%EV -6.77%E -2.56%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.02%EV -9.96%E -3.99%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -4.94%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-13 12:05
Unibet (FR)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.88%EV -6.77%E -2.56%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV -8.16%E -3.20%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.88%EV -7.82%E -2.44%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-14 18:30
Tipico (DE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.62%EV -6.77%E -2.56%K -4.10%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -9.96%E -3.99%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -7.82%E -2.44%K -3.56%G +0.000%9.0%2026-08-12 17:55
Casumo🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.36%EV -7.48%E -2.84%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.47%EV -8.16%E -3.20%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.18%EV -4.94%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-11 02:20
Unibet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.36%EV -7.48%E -2.84%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.47%EV -8.16%E -3.20%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.18%EV -4.94%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-11 02:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.36%EV -7.48%E -2.84%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.47%EV -8.16%E -3.20%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.18%EV -4.94%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-11 02:20
TABtouch🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.36%EV -7.48%E -2.84%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.47%EV -8.16%E -3.20%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.18%EV -4.94%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-11 02:19
PMU (FR)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.36%EV -7.48%E -2.84%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.47%EV -8.16%E -3.20%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.18%EV -4.94%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-11 02:19
Grosvenor🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.36%EV -7.48%E -2.84%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.47%EV -8.16%E -3.20%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.18%EV -4.94%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-11 02:19
Unibet (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.36%EV -7.48%E -2.84%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.47%EV -8.16%E -3.20%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.18%EV -4.94%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-11 02:19
betPARX🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.36%EV -7.48%E -2.84%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.47%EV -8.16%E -3.20%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.18%EV -4.94%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-11 02:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.36%EV -7.48%E -2.84%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.47%EV -8.16%E -3.20%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.18%EV -4.94%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-11 02:19
ATG (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 35.36%EV -7.48%E -2.84%K -4.59%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.47%EV -8.16%E -3.20%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.18%EV -4.94%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-11 02:20
betano_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.64%EV -7.83%E -2.99%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.64%EV -5.64%E -2.15%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -6.38%E -1.96%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-14 18:34
Bet Victor🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.64%EV -7.83%E -2.99%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.64%EV -5.64%E -2.15%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -6.38%E -1.96%K -2.84%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-14 18:35
Betway🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -7.83%E -2.99%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.48%EV -5.64%E -2.15%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.05%EV -7.82%E -2.44%K -3.56%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-14 18:19
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.81%EV -7.83%E -2.99%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.77%EV -8.16%E -3.20%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -10.70%E -3.45%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-14 18:30
Betsson🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.81%EV -7.83%E -2.99%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.77%EV -8.16%E -3.20%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -10.70%E -3.45%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-14 18:29
Suprabets🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.73%EV -7.83%E -2.99%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.59I 38.61%NM 35.13%EV -6.72%E -2.60%K -4.23%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.13%EV -13.01%E -4.31%K -6.44%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-14 18:19
Marathon Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.89%EV -8.53%E -3.28%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.17%EV -7.08%E -2.75%K -4.48%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.94%EV -3.79%E -1.14%K -1.62%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-14 18:14
FanDuel🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.69%EV -8.53%E -3.28%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.37%EV -2.76%E -1.02%K -1.62%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.94%EV -10.70%E -3.45%K -5.10%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-14 18:30
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -8.53%E -3.28%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -9.96%E -3.99%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -4.94%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-14 18:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.36%EV -8.53%E -3.28%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.78%EV -9.96%E -3.99%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.86%EV -4.94%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-14 18:29
Bovada🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.31%EV -8.53%E -3.28%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.00%EV -8.16%E -3.20%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.69%EV -7.82%E -2.44%K -3.56%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-14 18:23
Fanatics🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -8.53%E -3.28%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.23%EV -6.36%E -2.45%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -10.70%E -3.45%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-14 18:19
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.21%EV -8.53%E -3.28%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.62%EV -9.96%E -3.99%K -6.64%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.17%EV -6.38%E -1.96%K -2.84%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-13 12:08
Codere (IT)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.99%EV -8.53%E -3.28%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.67%EV -8.16%E -3.20%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.34%EV -10.70%E -3.45%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-14 18:30
888sport🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.98%EV -8.53%E -3.28%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.71%EV -5.64%E -2.15%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -13.58%E -4.53%K -6.79%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-14 18:19
William Hill🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.98%EV -8.53%E -3.28%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.71%EV -5.64%E -2.15%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -13.58%E -4.53%K -6.79%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-14 18:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.98%EV -8.53%E -3.28%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.71%EV -5.64%E -2.15%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -13.58%E -4.53%K -6.79%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-14 18:19
888sport (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.98%EV -8.53%E -3.28%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.71%EV -5.64%E -2.15%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.31%EV -13.58%E -4.53%K -6.79%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-14 18:19
Coral🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -8.53%E -3.28%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -11.76%E -4.80%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -10.70%E -3.45%K -5.10%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-14 18:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -8.53%E -3.28%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -11.76%E -4.80%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -10.70%E -3.45%K -5.10%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-14 18:19
Neds🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -8.53%E -3.28%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -11.76%E -4.80%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -10.70%E -3.45%K -5.10%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-14 18:19
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.48%EV -8.53%E -3.28%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.59%EV -11.76%E -4.80%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.92%EV -10.70%E -3.45%K -5.10%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-14 18:19
NetBet (FR)🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 35.26%EV -9.59%E -3.73%K -6.11%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 35.96%EV -9.24%E -3.67%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.77%EV -9.26%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-14 18:40
SportsBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -10.29%E -4.04%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.55%EV -4.56%E -1.72%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.54%EV -10.70%E -3.45%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.2%2026-08-14 18:29
theScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.54%EV -10.29%E -4.04%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.99%EV -11.76%E -4.80%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.46%EV -4.94%E -1.50%K -2.15%G +0.000%10.3%2026-08-13 12:09
PlayUp🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.43%EV -10.29%E -4.04%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.43%EV -8.16%E -3.20%K -5.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -10.70%E -3.45%K -5.10%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-14 18:39
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.40%EV -10.29%E -4.04%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.40%EV -10.68%E -4.31%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.21%EV -7.82%E -2.44%K -3.56%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-11 06:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.92%EV -12.05%E -4.82%K -8.03%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.15%EV -5.28%E -2.01%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.93%EV -13.58%E -4.53%K -6.79%G +0.000%11.4%2026-08-14 18:35
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -12.05%E -4.82%K -8.03%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -5.64%E -2.15%K -3.48%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -13.58%E -4.53%K -6.79%G +0.000%11.5%2026-08-14 18:29
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.78%EV -12.05%E -4.82%K -8.03%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.40%EV -6.36%E -2.45%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.82%EV -13.58%E -4.53%K -6.79%G +0.000%11.8%2026-08-14 18:29
LiveScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.54%EV -12.05%E -4.82%K -8.03%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.26%EV -11.76%E -4.80%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.20%EV -9.26%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-11 02:19
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.54%EV -12.05%E -4.82%K -8.03%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.26%EV -11.76%E -4.80%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.20%EV -9.26%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-11 02:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.54%EV -12.05%E -4.82%K -8.03%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.26%EV -11.76%E -4.80%K -8.11%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.20%EV -9.26%E -2.94%K -4.31%G +0.000%12.6%2026-08-11 02:20
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.31%EV -12.05%E -4.82%K -8.03%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.10%EV -14.29%E -6.00%K -10.35%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.59%EV -7.82%E -2.44%K -3.56%G +0.000%13.3%2026-08-14 15:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.78I 35.97%NM 35.60%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.85%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.55%1.0%2026-08-14 18:34
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.78I 35.97%NM 35.60%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.85%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.55%1.0%2026-08-14 18:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.80I 35.71%NM 35.28%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.78%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.94%1.2%2026-08-14 18:40
Matchbook2.80I 35.71%NM 35.28%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.78%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.94%1.2%2026-08-14 18:40
Smarkets2.74I 36.50%NM 36.00%2.82I 35.46%NM 34.98%3.40I 29.41%NM 29.01%1.4%2026-08-14 18:35