Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nancy v Montpellier

Kickoff: 2026-03-06 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

59 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Nancy (Local)

Prediction 33.25%3.01fair odd
EV -3.58%
Edge -1.23%
Kelly -1.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.30%33.29%33.24%35.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.742.752.9038.46%36.56%36.36%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Montpellier (Visit)

Prediction 37.98%2.63fair odd
EV -0.122%
Edge -0.046%
Kelly -0.075%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.94%37.87%38.08%39.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.472.452.6343.48%40.42%40.82%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.77%3.48fair odd
EV -2.17%
Edge -0.637%
Kelly -0.902%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.59%28.84%28.68%30.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.153.103.4035.71%31.75%32.26%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nancy (Local): 33.25%; Montpellier (Visit): 37.98%; Draw: 28.77%. For Montpellier (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.633. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.630, with an expected value of -0.122%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -3.58%E -1.23%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.41%EV -2.78%E -1.09%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.56%EV -6.77%E -2.09%K -3.02%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-06 18:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -3.58%E -1.23%K -1.88%G +0.000%2.56I 39.06%NM 37.41%EV -2.78%E -1.09%K -1.78%G +0.000%3.24I 30.86%NM 29.56%EV -6.77%E -2.09%K -3.02%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-06 18:10
Pinnacle🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.44%EV -4.24%E -1.47%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 37.47%EV -2.40%E -0.934%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.31I 30.21%NM 29.09%EV -4.75%E -1.44%K -2.06%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-06 18:51
BetMGM🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.30%EV -4.24%E -1.47%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.08%EV -9.62%E -4.04%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.62%EV -6.48%E -1.99%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-06 18:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -5.24%E -1.84%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.43%EV -6.96%E -2.84%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-06 18:15
Betclic (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.82%EV -5.24%E -1.84%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.66%EV -8.10%E -3.35%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.52%EV -5.62%E -1.71%K -2.46%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-06 18:35
PMU (FR)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.59%EV -5.24%E -1.84%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.92%EV -6.96%E -2.84%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.49%EV -9.36%E -2.97%K -4.35%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-06 18:35
Fanatics🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.49%EV -5.24%E -1.84%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.58%EV -8.86%E -3.69%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.93%EV -7.92%E -2.48%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-06 18:10
FanDuel🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.44%EV -5.24%E -1.84%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.74%EV -6.96%E -2.84%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-06 18:35
NordicBet🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 32.82%EV -6.24%E -2.21%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.25%EV -8.10%E -3.35%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.93%EV -7.92%E -2.48%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-06 18:10
Betsson🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 32.82%EV -6.24%E -2.21%K -3.43%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.25%EV -8.10%E -3.35%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.93%EV -7.92%E -2.48%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-06 18:10
Coolbet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.97%EV -6.90%E -2.47%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.05%EV -5.06%E -2.02%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -2.17%E -0.637%K -0.902%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-06 18:23
DraftKings🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.69%EV -6.90%E -2.47%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.73%EV -5.06%E -2.02%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-06 18:55
Bet Victor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.43%EV -6.90%E -2.47%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.21%EV -6.96%E -2.84%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-06 18:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -6.90%E -2.47%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -6.96%E -2.84%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-06 18:45
SportsBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.57%EV -6.90%E -2.47%K -3.84%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.00%EV -8.86%E -3.69%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.42%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-06 18:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 33.55%EV -7.57%E -2.72%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.31%EV -5.06%E -2.02%K -3.37%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.15%EV -7.92%E -2.48%K -3.60%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-06 18:50
1xBet🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 34.29%EV -7.90%E -2.85%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.69%EV -4.30%E -1.71%K -2.83%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.02%EV -2.45%E -0.724%K -1.03%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-06 18:50
NetBet (FR)🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 33.22%EV -7.90%E -2.85%K -4.46%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 38.02%EV -8.10%E -3.35%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.76%EV -7.92%E -2.48%K -3.60%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-06 18:46
BetUS🎯2.76I 36.23%NM 33.35%EV -8.23%E -2.98%K -4.68%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 37.42%EV -6.58%E -2.67%K -4.51%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.22%EV -9.36%E -2.97%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-06 18:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -8.57%E -3.12%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -6.96%E -2.84%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -2.17%E -0.637%K -0.902%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-06 18:20
Parions Sport (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -8.57%E -3.12%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -6.96%E -2.84%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-06 18:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -8.57%E -3.12%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -8.86%E -3.69%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-06 18:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.57%E -3.12%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -8.86%E -3.69%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -7.92%E -2.48%K -3.60%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-06 18:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.57%E -3.12%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -8.86%E -3.69%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -7.92%E -2.48%K -3.60%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-06 18:10
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -8.57%E -3.12%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -8.86%E -3.69%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -7.92%E -2.48%K -3.60%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-06 18:50
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.23%EV -8.57%E -3.12%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.30%EV -6.96%E -2.84%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-06 18:45
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.23%EV -8.57%E -3.12%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.30%EV -6.96%E -2.84%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-06 18:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.23%EV -8.57%E -3.12%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.30%EV -6.96%E -2.84%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-06 18:41
William Hill🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.23%EV -8.57%E -3.12%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.30%EV -6.96%E -2.84%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.48%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-06 18:45
Codere (IT)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.02%EV -8.57%E -3.12%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 38.15%EV -9.62%E -4.04%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.83%EV -9.36%E -2.97%K -4.35%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-06 18:15
Paddy Power🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.65%EV -8.57%E -3.12%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -8.86%E -3.69%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.93%EV -13.68%E -4.56%K -6.84%G +0.000%11.4%2026-03-06 18:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -8.57%E -3.12%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -12.65%E -5.50%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-06 18:16
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -8.57%E -3.12%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -12.65%E -5.50%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-06 18:15
Coral🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -8.57%E -3.12%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -12.65%E -5.50%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-06 18:15
Neds🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.44%EV -8.57%E -3.12%K -4.90%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.79%EV -12.65%E -5.50%K -9.73%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.1%2026-03-06 18:15
Bovada🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 33.62%EV -8.90%E -3.25%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.14%EV -5.82%E -2.35%K -3.93%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.24%EV -9.36%E -2.97%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-06 18:51
Bet Right🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -10.23%E -3.79%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -8.86%E -3.69%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.80%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-06 18:20
theScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -10.23%E -3.79%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -8.86%E -3.69%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.80%EV -5.04%E -1.53%K -2.19%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-06 18:15
Suprabets🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.65%EV -10.23%E -3.79%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.44I 40.98%NM 37.23%EV -7.34%E -3.01%K -5.10%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.12%EV -10.22%E -3.28%K -4.82%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-06 18:50
Everygame🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.64%EV -10.23%E -3.79%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.07%EV -6.96%E -2.84%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.30%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%10.1%2026-03-06 18:45
Sky Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 32.95%EV -10.23%E -3.79%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.39%EV -9.62%E -4.04%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.66%EV -13.68%E -4.56%K -6.84%G +0.000%12.4%2026-03-06 18:35
PlayUp🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.05%EV -11.89%E -4.49%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.83%EV -6.96%E -2.84%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.11%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-06 18:55
Unibet🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.94%EV -12.56%E -4.77%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.94%EV -0.122%E -0.046%K -0.075%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.13%EV -12.24%E -4.01%K -5.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-27 19:05
BetRivers🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.94%EV -12.56%E -4.77%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.94%EV -0.122%E -0.046%K -0.075%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.13%EV -12.24%E -4.01%K -5.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-27 19:04
LeoVegas🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.94%EV -12.56%E -4.77%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.94%EV -0.122%E -0.046%K -0.075%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.13%EV -12.24%E -4.01%K -5.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-27 19:04
Unibet (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.94%EV -12.56%E -4.77%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.94%EV -0.122%E -0.046%K -0.075%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.13%EV -12.24%E -4.01%K -5.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-27 19:04
TABtouch🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.94%EV -12.56%E -4.77%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.94%EV -0.122%E -0.046%K -0.075%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.13%EV -12.24%E -4.01%K -5.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-27 19:04
Casumo🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.94%EV -12.56%E -4.77%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.94%EV -0.122%E -0.046%K -0.075%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.13%EV -12.24%E -4.01%K -5.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-27 19:05
Grosvenor🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.94%EV -12.56%E -4.77%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.94%EV -0.122%E -0.046%K -0.075%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.13%EV -12.24%E -4.01%K -5.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-27 19:04
Unibet (NL)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.94%EV -12.56%E -4.77%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.94%EV -0.122%E -0.046%K -0.075%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.13%EV -12.24%E -4.01%K -5.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-27 19:04
betPARX🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.94%EV -12.56%E -4.77%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.94%EV -0.122%E -0.046%K -0.075%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.13%EV -12.24%E -4.01%K -5.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-27 19:05
Svenska Spel🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.94%EV -12.56%E -4.77%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.94%EV -0.122%E -0.046%K -0.075%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.13%EV -12.24%E -4.01%K -5.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-27 19:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.94%EV -12.56%E -4.77%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.94%EV -0.122%E -0.046%K -0.075%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.13%EV -12.24%E -4.01%K -5.97%G +0.000%8.8%2026-02-27 19:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 32.44%EV -12.56%E -4.77%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.09%EV -12.65%E -5.50%K -9.73%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.47%EV -19.43%E -6.94%K -10.79%G +0.000%17.2%2026-03-06 18:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -13.55%E -5.21%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -1.26%E -0.485%K -0.788%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -12.24%E -4.01%K -5.97%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-27 19:04
LiveScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -13.55%E -5.21%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -1.26%E -0.485%K -0.788%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -12.24%E -4.01%K -5.97%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-27 19:04
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -13.55%E -5.21%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.06%EV -1.26%E -0.485%K -0.788%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.89%EV -12.24%E -4.01%K -5.97%G +0.000%9.7%2026-02-27 19:04
BoyleSports🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.12%EV -13.55%E -5.21%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.27%EV -9.62%E -4.04%K -6.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.61%EV -10.80%E -3.48%K -5.14%G +0.000%12.7%2026-03-06 15:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.86%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%0.8%2026-03-06 18:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.86%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.61%0.8%2026-03-06 18:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.05I 32.79%NM 32.43%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.04%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.53%1.1%2026-03-06 18:55
Matchbook3.05I 32.79%NM 32.43%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.04%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.53%1.1%2026-03-06 18:50
Smarkets3.00I 33.33%NM 32.70%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.02%3.35I 29.85%NM 29.28%1.9%2026-03-06 18:55