The School of Odds
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Montpellier v Metz

2026-11-06 19:00 UTC — Ligue 2 - France

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Montpellier (Local)

Prediction 44.56%2.24fair odd
EV -6.42%
Edge -3.06%
Kelly -5.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.57%44.73%44.33%45.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.862.032.052.1053.76%49.17%48.78%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Metz (Visit)

Prediction 26.09%3.83fair odd
EV +3.84%
Edge +0.966%
Kelly +1.29%
Growth +0.050%

assuming max odds 3.98

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.85%26.17%26.40%28.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.443.403.9831.25%29.09%29.41%25.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.35%3.41fair odd
EV +2.72%
Edge +0.776%
Kelly +1.09%
Growth +0.029%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.24%29.10%29.27%30.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.193.103.5034.48%31.40%32.26%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Montpellier (Local): 44.56%; Metz (Visit): 26.09%; Draw: 29.35%. For Metz (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.83. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.98, producing a positive expected value of +3.84%.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.42%EV -6.87%E -3.29%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.85%EV +3.84%E +0.966%K +1.29%G +0.050%3.09I 32.36%NM 30.72%EV -9.32%E -3.02%K -4.46%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-31 18:15
LowVig.ag🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.10%EV -6.42%E -3.06%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -3.46%E -0.936%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.87%EV -11.96%E -3.99%K -5.98%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-31 18:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.10%EV -6.42%E -3.06%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%EV -3.46%E -0.936%K -1.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.87%EV -11.96%E -3.99%K -5.98%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-31 18:45
Betsson🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.54%EV -8.65%E -4.22%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.02%EV -4.77%E -1.31%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.44%EV -11.96%E -3.99%K -5.98%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-31 18:10
NordicBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.54%EV -8.65%E -4.22%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.02%EV -4.77%E -1.31%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.44%EV -11.96%E -3.99%K -5.98%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-31 18:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.71%EV -10.88%E -5.44%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.19%EV -7.38%E -2.08%K -2.89%G +0.000%2.97I 33.67%NM 30.11%EV -12.84%E -4.32%K -6.52%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-31 18:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.32%EV -6.42%E -3.06%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.59%EV -8.68%E -2.48%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.09%EV -6.09%E -1.90%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-31 18:09
SportsBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.18%EV -7.31%E -3.52%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.64%EV -9.98%E -2.89%K -4.08%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -7.56%E -2.40%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-31 18:10
Unibet (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 45.86%EV -17.12%E -9.20%K -19.90%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 24.72%EV -9.98%E -2.89%K -4.08%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.41%EV -14.89%E -5.14%K -7.84%G +0.000%17.2%2026-10-31 18:10
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -6.42%E -3.06%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -11.29%E -3.32%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -3.15%E -0.956%K -1.37%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-31 18:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -8.65%E -4.22%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -11.29%E -3.32%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -3.15%E -0.956%K -1.37%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-31 18:40
Fanatics🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -6.42%E -3.06%K -5.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -11.29%E -3.32%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.30%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-31 18:10
FanDuel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -8.65%E -4.22%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -11.29%E -3.32%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.30%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-31 18:10
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.17%EV -8.65%E -4.22%K -8.24%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.63%EV -11.29%E -3.32%K -4.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -9.02%E -2.91%K -4.30%G +0.000%10.5%2026-10-31 18:09
Winamax (DE)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.37%EV -11.77%E -5.94%K -12.01%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.84%EV -11.29%E -3.32%K -4.70%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.78%EV -13.43%E -4.55%K -6.88%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-31 18:09
1xBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.93%EV -7.31%E -3.52%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.06%EV -13.12%E -3.94%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.01%EV +1.54%E +0.445%K +0.627%G +0.010%7.0%2026-10-31 14:20
Marathon Bet🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 45.13%EV -8.20%E -3.98%K -7.74%G +0.000%3.32I 30.12%NM 28.00%EV -13.38%E -4.03%K -5.77%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 26.87%EV +1.54%E +0.445%K +0.627%G +0.010%7.6%2026-10-31 14:00
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -10.88%E -5.44%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -13.90%E -4.21%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV +2.72%E +0.776%K +1.09%G +0.029%8.9%2026-10-31 18:10
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -10.88%E -5.44%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -13.90%E -4.21%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV +2.72%E +0.776%K +1.09%G +0.029%8.9%2026-10-31 18:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -10.88%E -5.44%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -13.90%E -4.21%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV +2.72%E +0.776%K +1.09%G +0.029%8.9%2026-10-31 18:09
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -10.88%E -5.44%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -13.90%E -4.21%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV +2.72%E +0.776%K +1.09%G +0.029%8.9%2026-10-31 18:10
Bovada🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.75%EV -10.88%E -5.44%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.73%EV -13.90%E -4.21%K -6.04%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.52%EV +1.25%E +0.362%K +0.509%G +0.006%9.3%2026-10-31 18:17
Winamax (FR)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 44.31%EV -13.55%E -6.99%K -14.42%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.05%EV -13.90%E -4.21%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.64%EV -14.89%E -5.14%K -7.84%G +0.000%16.3%2026-10-31 18:10
betfred_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.64%EV -10.88%E -5.44%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.47%EV -15.20%E -4.68%K -6.76%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.90%EV -6.09%E -1.90%K -2.77%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-31 18:40
Sky Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 43.64%EV -10.88%E -5.44%K -10.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.27%EV -16.51%E -5.16%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.09%EV -11.96%E -3.99%K -5.98%G +0.000%14.6%2026-10-31 18:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.97I 50.76%NM 43.73%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.72%2.82I 35.46%NM 30.55%16.1%2026-10-31 18:10