Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Metz v Stade Lavallois

Kickoff: 2026-08-22 12:00 UTC

Final: Metz 1–1 Stade Lavallois

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Metz (Local)

Prediction 52.59%1.90fair odd
EV -3.77%
Edge -2.06%
Kelly -4.54%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.12%52.63%52.57%55.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.731.741.8362.11%57.76%57.47%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Stade Lavallois (Visit)

Prediction 20.82%4.80fair odd
EV +6.20%
Edge +1.22%
Kelly +1.51%
Growth +0.094%

assuming max odds 5.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.53%20.79%20.89%22.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.524.505.1023.81%22.14%22.22%19.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.59%3.76fair odd
EV -2.94%
Edge -0.806%
Kelly -1.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.80%26.59%26.55%27.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.453.503.6530.77%28.95%28.57%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Metz (Local): 52.59%; Stade Lavallois (Visit): 20.82%; Draw: 26.59%. For Stade Lavallois (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.80. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.20%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
PMU (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.58%EV -10.60%E -6.24%K -15.15%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV +6.20%E +1.22%K +1.51%G +0.094%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%EV -2.94%E -0.806%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-21 20:09
Svenska Spel🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.58%EV -10.60%E -6.24%K -15.15%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV +6.20%E +1.22%K +1.51%G +0.094%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.89%EV -2.94%E -0.806%K -1.11%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-21 20:10
Pinnacle🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 53.06%EV -4.82%E -2.66%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.83I 20.70%NM 19.88%EV +0.575%E +0.119%K +0.150%G +0.001%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.05%EV -5.60%E -1.58%K -2.20%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-22 11:50
Casumo🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.94%EV -12.71%E -7.66%K -19.26%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.00%EV -0.050%E -0.010%K -0.013%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -6.93%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-21 20:10
Unibet (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.94%EV -12.71%E -7.66%K -19.26%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.00%EV -0.050%E -0.010%K -0.013%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -6.93%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-21 20:09
TABtouch🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.94%EV -12.71%E -7.66%K -19.26%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.00%EV -0.050%E -0.010%K -0.013%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -6.93%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-21 20:10
Unibet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.94%EV -12.71%E -7.66%K -19.26%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.00%EV -0.050%E -0.010%K -0.013%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -6.93%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-21 20:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.94%EV -12.71%E -7.66%K -19.26%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.00%EV -0.050%E -0.010%K -0.013%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -6.93%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-21 20:09
Grosvenor🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.94%EV -12.71%E -7.66%K -19.26%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.00%EV -0.050%E -0.010%K -0.013%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -6.93%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-21 20:09
ATG (SE)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.94%EV -12.71%E -7.66%K -19.26%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.00%EV -0.050%E -0.010%K -0.013%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -6.93%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-21 20:10
betPARX🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 54.94%EV -12.71%E -7.66%K -19.26%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.00%EV -0.050%E -0.010%K -0.013%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.06%EV -6.93%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-21 20:14
Tipico (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.13%EV -10.60%E -6.24%K -15.15%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.58%EV -2.13%E -0.454%K -0.576%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.29%EV -6.93%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-22 09:45
BetRivers🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 54.97%EV -14.29%E -8.76%K -22.68%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.06%EV -2.13%E -0.454%K -0.576%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.97%EV -8.26%E -2.39%K -3.37%G +0.000%11.6%2026-08-21 20:09
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.06%EV -15.34%E -9.53%K -25.14%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.86%EV -2.13%E -0.454%K -0.576%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.07%EV -9.59%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-21 20:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.06%EV -15.34%E -9.53%K -25.14%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.86%EV -2.13%E -0.454%K -0.576%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.07%EV -9.59%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-21 20:09
LiveScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 55.06%EV -15.34%E -9.53%K -25.14%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.86%EV -2.13%E -0.454%K -0.576%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.07%EV -9.59%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000%12.8%2026-08-21 20:10
1xBet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.83%EV -6.92%E -3.91%K -8.99%G +0.000%4.68I 21.37%NM 19.98%EV -2.55%E -0.545%K -0.693%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.18%EV -8.52%E -2.48%K -3.49%G +0.000%6.9%2026-08-22 11:55
Bet Victor🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.57%EV -7.98%E -4.56%K -10.63%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.38%EV -4.21%E -0.916%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -4.27%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-22 11:53
betano_uk🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.57%EV -7.98%E -4.56%K -10.63%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.38%EV -4.21%E -0.916%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -4.27%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-22 11:53
FanDuel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.90%EV -6.92%E -3.91%K -8.99%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.35%EV -4.21%E -0.916%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.75%EV -6.93%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-22 11:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.00%EV -9.55%E -5.55%K -13.27%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.19%EV -4.21%E -0.916%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.80%EV -4.27%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-22 11:44
Marathon Bet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.00%EV -7.45%E -4.23%K -9.80%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.50%EV -5.26%E -1.16%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.50%EV -6.40%E -1.82%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-22 11:49
Coolbet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.35%E -2.97%K -6.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -6.30%E -1.40%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -4.27%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-21 14:04
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.44%EV -5.35%E -2.97%K -6.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.97%EV -6.30%E -1.40%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.59%EV -5.60%E -1.58%K -2.20%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-22 11:20
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.24%EV -5.35%E -2.97%K -6.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.90%EV -6.30%E -1.40%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.93%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-22 11:43
Betr (AU)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 52.52%EV -6.40%E -3.59%K -8.20%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -6.30%E -1.40%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -6.93%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-22 10:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 52.68%EV -7.45%E -4.23%K -9.80%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.60%EV -6.30%E -1.40%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 26.72%EV -7.73%E -2.23%K -3.13%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-22 11:43
SportsBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.53%EV -7.98%E -4.56%K -10.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -6.30%E -1.40%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -9.59%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-22 11:54
Bovada🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.68%EV -8.50%E -4.89%K -11.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -6.30%E -1.40%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.96%EV -9.59%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000%9.1%2026-08-22 11:54
888sport🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -7.98%E -4.56%K -10.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -6.30%E -1.40%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -12.25%E -3.71%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-22 11:45
William Hill🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -7.98%E -4.56%K -10.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -6.30%E -1.40%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -12.25%E -3.71%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-22 11:49
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -7.98%E -4.56%K -10.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -6.30%E -1.40%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -12.25%E -3.71%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-22 11:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.11%EV -7.98%E -4.56%K -10.63%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.26%EV -6.30%E -1.40%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -12.25%E -3.71%K -5.32%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-22 11:45
Suprabets🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.25%EV -8.50%E -4.89%K -11.49%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -6.30%E -1.40%K -1.80%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -12.25%E -3.71%K -5.32%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-22 11:42
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.80%EV -6.92%E -3.91%K -8.99%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.24%EV -8.38%E -1.90%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.96%EV -4.27%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-21 14:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.84%EV -8.50%E -4.89%K -11.49%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.89%EV -8.38%E -1.90%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -6.93%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-22 11:39
Winamax (DE)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 52.84%EV -8.50%E -4.89%K -11.49%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.89%EV -8.38%E -1.90%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.27%EV -6.93%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-22 11:39
NetBet (FR)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.49%EV -7.98%E -4.56%K -10.63%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.88%EV -8.38%E -1.90%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -8.26%E -2.39%K -3.37%G +0.000%8.9%2026-08-22 11:44
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.08%EV -7.98%E -4.56%K -10.63%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.71%EV -8.38%E -1.90%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -10.92%E -3.26%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-22 11:43
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.08%EV -7.98%E -4.56%K -10.63%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.71%EV -8.38%E -1.90%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.21%EV -10.92%E -3.26%K -4.65%G +0.000%9.7%2026-08-22 11:44
theScore Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 53.56%EV -11.13%E -6.59%K -16.13%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.57%EV -8.38%E -1.90%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.86%EV -6.93%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-21 14:00
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.15%EV -9.03%E -5.22%K -12.37%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -8.38%E -1.90%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -12.25%E -3.71%K -5.32%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-22 11:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.15%EV -9.03%E -5.22%K -12.37%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.51%EV -8.38%E -1.90%K -2.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -12.25%E -3.71%K -5.32%G +0.000%10.8%2026-08-22 11:54
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.80%EV -9.03%E -5.22%K -12.37%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.10%EV -9.84%E -2.27%K -2.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -6.93%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%9.5%2026-08-21 14:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.79%EV -4.82%E -2.66%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -10.46%E -2.43%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.41%EV -5.60%E -1.58%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-22 11:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.79%EV -4.82%E -2.66%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -10.46%E -2.43%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.41%EV -5.60%E -1.58%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-22 11:35
BetUS🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 51.79%EV -4.82%E -2.66%K -5.95%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.80%EV -10.46%E -2.43%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.41%EV -5.60%E -1.58%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-22 11:35
Fanatics🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.33%EV -5.35%E -2.97%K -6.68%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.49%EV -10.46%E -2.43%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -9.59%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-22 11:20
Codere (IT)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 51.83%EV -7.98%E -4.56%K -10.63%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.09%EV -10.46%E -2.43%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.08%EV -10.92%E -3.26%K -4.65%G +0.000%10.2%2026-08-22 11:44
PlayUp🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.12%EV -6.92%E -3.91%K -8.99%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.04%EV -10.46%E -2.43%K -3.17%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.84%EV -13.58%E -4.18%K -6.03%G +0.000%10.5%2026-08-22 11:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.02%EV -6.92%E -3.91%K -8.99%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.67%EV -11.50%E -2.71%K -3.54%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.31%EV -6.93%E -1.98%K -2.77%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-22 09:59
Betway🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.44%EV -3.77%E -2.06%K -4.54%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41%EV -12.54%E -2.99%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.15%EV -4.27%E -1.19%K -1.64%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-22 11:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.06%EV -9.03%E -5.22%K -12.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.45%EV -12.54%E -2.99%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -9.59%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-21 14:00
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.06%EV -9.03%E -5.22%K -12.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.45%EV -12.54%E -2.99%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -9.59%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-21 13:59
Neds🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.06%EV -9.03%E -5.22%K -12.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.45%EV -12.54%E -2.99%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -9.59%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-21 13:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.06%EV -9.03%E -5.22%K -12.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.45%EV -12.54%E -2.99%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.49%EV -9.59%E -2.82%K -4.00%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-21 14:00
Sky Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.43%EV -9.03%E -5.22%K -12.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.19%EV -12.54%E -2.99%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.38%EV -13.58%E -4.18%K -6.03%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-22 11:55
BoyleSports🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 51.87%EV -10.60%E -6.24%K -15.15%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.00%EV -12.54%E -2.99%K -3.92%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.13%EV -13.58%E -4.18%K -6.03%G +0.000%13.4%2026-08-22 09:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.86I 53.76%NM 53.53%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.91%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.55%0.4%2026-08-22 11:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.86I 53.76%NM 53.34%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.84%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.82%0.8%2026-08-22 11:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.86I 53.76%NM 53.34%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.84%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.82%0.8%2026-08-22 11:50
Matchbook1.86I 53.76%NM 53.34%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.84%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.82%0.8%2026-08-22 11:55
Smarkets1.85I 54.05%NM 53.48%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.79%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.74%1.1%2026-08-22 11:55