Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Metz v Sochaux

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 12:00 UTC

Final: Metz 3–2 Sochaux

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Metz (Local)

Prediction 49.38%2.03fair odd
EV -2.73%
Edge -1.38%
Kelly -2.81%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.04%49.73%49.20%54.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.841.871.9759.88%54.20%53.48%50.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sochaux (Visit)

Prediction 23.64%4.23fair odd
EV +8.73%
Edge +1.90%
Kelly +2.43%
Growth +0.212%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.41%23.41%23.80%24.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.653.963.954.6027.40%25.25%25.32%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.99%3.71fair odd
EV +2.54%
Edge +0.669%
Kelly +0.908%
Growth +0.023%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.70%26.85%27.00%27.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.413.403.8031.25%29.31%29.41%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Metz (Local): 49.38%; Sochaux (Visit): 23.64%; Draw: 26.99%. For Sochaux (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.23. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.73%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
FanDuel🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.89%EV -15.56%E -9.10%K -21.92%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.41%EV +8.73%E +1.90%K +2.43%G +0.212%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.70%EV +2.54%E +0.669%K +0.908%G +0.023%6.5%2026-10-17 08:04
SportsBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.58%EV -16.55%E -9.79%K -23.99%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.50%EV +6.37%E +1.41%K +1.82%G +0.116%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.93%EV -0.155%E -0.042%K -0.058%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-17 08:00
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.25%EV -17.54%E -10.50%K -26.18%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV +4.00%E +0.910%K +1.18%G +0.047%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -2.85%E -0.793%K -1.10%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-17 11:45
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 54.25%EV -17.54%E -10.50%K -26.18%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.59%EV +4.00%E +0.910%K +1.18%G +0.047%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.16%EV -2.85%E -0.793%K -1.10%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-17 09:05
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.34%EV -17.54%E -10.50%K -26.18%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.21%EV -0.724%E -0.172%K -0.226%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.45%EV -5.55%E -1.59%K -2.22%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-17 08:05
Casumo🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.05%EV -7.66%E -4.10%K -8.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -3.09%E -0.753%K -0.996%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -6.90%E -2.00%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-17 11:40
TABtouch🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.05%EV -7.66%E -4.10%K -8.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -3.09%E -0.753%K -0.996%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -6.90%E -2.00%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-17 11:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.05%EV -7.66%E -4.10%K -8.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -3.09%E -0.753%K -0.996%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -6.90%E -2.00%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-17 11:40
betPARX🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.05%EV -7.66%E -4.10%K -8.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -3.09%E -0.753%K -0.996%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -6.90%E -2.00%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-17 11:39
ATG (SE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.05%EV -7.66%E -4.10%K -8.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -3.09%E -0.753%K -0.996%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -6.90%E -2.00%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-17 11:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.05%EV -7.66%E -4.10%K -8.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -3.09%E -0.753%K -0.996%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -6.90%E -2.00%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-17 11:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.05%EV -7.66%E -4.10%K -8.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -3.09%E -0.753%K -0.996%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -6.90%E -2.00%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-17 11:40
Grosvenor🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.05%EV -7.66%E -4.10%K -8.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -3.09%E -0.753%K -0.996%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -6.90%E -2.00%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-17 11:40
Unibet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.05%EV -7.66%E -4.10%K -8.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.83%EV -3.09%E -0.753%K -0.996%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.13%EV -6.90%E -2.00%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-17 11:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 50.65%EV -9.14%E -4.97%K -10.89%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.73%EV -3.09%E -0.753%K -0.996%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -5.55%E -1.59%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-17 11:40
betano_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.80%EV -11.12%E -6.18%K -13.90%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.30%EV -3.09%E -0.753%K -0.996%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -8.25%E -2.43%K -3.44%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-17 11:39
Tipico (DE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 51.61%EV -12.60%E -7.12%K -16.37%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.28%EV -3.09%E -0.753%K -0.996%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.10%EV -5.55%E -1.59%K -2.22%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-17 11:40
1xBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 50.32%EV -8.16%E -4.39%K -9.49%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 22.94%EV -3.56%E -0.873%K -1.16%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -5.55%E -1.59%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-17 11:40
Coolbet🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.93%EV -6.18%E -3.25%K -6.87%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.72%EV -5.45%E -1.36%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -2.85%E -0.793%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-17 11:45
BetOnline.ag🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 49.10%EV -5.19%E -2.71%K -5.65%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -5.45%E -1.36%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.33%EV -6.90%E -2.00%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-17 11:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 49.82%EV -7.17%E -3.81%K -8.15%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.45%E -1.36%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -5.55%E -1.59%K -2.22%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-17 11:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.04%EV -5.69%E -2.98%K -6.25%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.42%EV -5.45%E -1.36%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -8.25%E -2.43%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-17 11:40
Bet Victor🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.91%EV -11.12%E -6.18%K -13.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.91%EV -5.45%E -1.36%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.18%EV -5.55%E -1.59%K -2.22%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-17 11:54
Bovada🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 49.91%EV -9.64%E -5.27%K -11.61%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -5.45%E -1.36%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.26%EV -9.60%E -2.87%K -4.09%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-17 11:54
NetBet (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.60%EV -12.11%E -6.80%K -15.52%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.52%EV -5.45%E -1.36%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.89%EV -9.60%E -2.87%K -4.09%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-17 11:40
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 51.51%EV -14.58%E -8.43%K -19.97%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.28%EV -5.45%E -1.36%K -1.82%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.21%EV -8.25%E -2.43%K -3.44%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-17 11:30
Pinnacle🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.77%EV -2.73%E -1.38%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.32%EV -6.63%E -1.68%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.91%EV -3.66%E -1.03%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-17 11:50
BetUS🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 48.77%EV -2.73%E -1.38%K -2.81%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.32%EV -6.63%E -1.68%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.91%EV -3.66%E -1.03%K -1.43%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-17 11:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 49.90%EV -10.13%E -5.57%K -12.36%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.99%EV -6.63%E -1.68%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.11%EV -9.60%E -2.87%K -4.09%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-17 11:40
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.61%EV -3.71%E -1.90%K -3.91%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -7.82%E -2.00%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.55%E -1.59%K -2.22%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-17 11:40
LowVig.ag🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.68%EV -4.70%E -2.44%K -5.05%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.09%EV -7.82%E -2.00%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -6.90%E -2.00%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-17 11:55
BetMGM🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -5.69%E -2.98%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -7.82%E -2.00%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -8.25%E -2.43%K -3.44%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-17 11:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.66%EV -7.66%E -4.10%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.81%EV -7.82%E -2.00%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.53%EV -5.55%E -1.59%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-17 11:45
picklebet_au🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 49.27%EV -7.66%E -4.10%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.63%EV -7.82%E -2.00%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.10%EV -8.25%E -2.43%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-17 11:40
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.74%EV -7.17%E -3.81%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.49%EV -7.82%E -2.00%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77%EV -10.95%E -3.32%K -4.76%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-17 11:40
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.74%EV -7.17%E -3.81%K -8.15%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.49%EV -7.82%E -2.00%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.77%EV -10.95%E -3.32%K -4.76%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-17 11:40
Virgin Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.83%EV -11.12%E -6.18%K -13.90%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.00%EV -7.82%E -2.00%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -10.95%E -3.32%K -4.76%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-17 11:40
BetRivers🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.83%EV -11.12%E -6.18%K -13.90%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.00%EV -7.82%E -2.00%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.18%EV -10.95%E -3.32%K -4.76%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-17 11:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 49.75%EV -12.11%E -6.80%K -15.52%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.00%EV -9.00%E -2.34%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.25%EV -12.30%E -3.78%K -5.47%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-17 11:40
LiveScore Bet🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 49.75%EV -12.11%E -6.80%K -15.52%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.00%EV -9.00%E -2.34%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.25%EV -12.30%E -3.78%K -5.47%G +0.000%12.9%2026-10-17 11:40
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -5.69%E -2.98%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.54%EV -10.18%E -2.68%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.64%EV -5.55%E -1.59%K -2.22%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-17 11:55
Fanatics🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 48.70%EV -6.68%E -3.53%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.22%EV -10.18%E -2.68%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.07%EV -8.25%E -2.43%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-17 11:40
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -5.69%E -2.98%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -10.18%E -2.68%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -10.95%E -3.32%K -4.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-17 11:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -5.69%E -2.98%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -10.18%E -2.68%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -10.95%E -3.32%K -4.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-17 11:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -5.69%E -2.98%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -10.18%E -2.68%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -10.95%E -3.32%K -4.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-17 11:40
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.04%EV -5.69%E -2.98%K -6.25%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -10.18%E -2.68%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.81%EV -10.95%E -3.32%K -4.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-17 11:40
Codere (IT)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.57%EV -7.66%E -4.10%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.90%EV -10.18%E -2.68%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.52%EV -10.95%E -3.32%K -4.76%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-17 11:50
Betclic (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 48.98%EV -9.14%E -4.97%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.72%EV -10.18%E -2.68%K -3.64%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.31%EV -10.95%E -3.32%K -4.76%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-17 11:45
Winamax (DE)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 49.14%EV -8.16%E -4.39%K -9.49%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.37%EV -11.36%E -3.03%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.49%EV -6.90%E -2.00%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-17 11:40
betfred_uk🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 49.37%EV -11.12%E -6.18%K -13.90%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.70%EV -11.36%E -3.03%K -4.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.93%EV -10.95%E -3.32%K -4.76%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-17 11:45
PlayUp🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.46%EV -7.66%E -4.10%K -8.81%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.49%EV -12.54%E -3.39%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.05%EV -9.60%E -2.87%K -4.09%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-17 11:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.33%EV -8.65%E -4.68%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -12.54%E -3.39%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.51%EV -12.30%E -3.78%K -5.47%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 11:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.33%EV -8.65%E -4.68%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -12.54%E -3.39%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.51%EV -12.30%E -3.78%K -5.47%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 11:40
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.33%EV -8.65%E -4.68%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -12.54%E -3.39%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.51%EV -12.30%E -3.78%K -5.47%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 11:40
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.33%EV -8.65%E -4.68%K -10.18%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.16%EV -12.54%E -3.39%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.51%EV -12.30%E -3.78%K -5.47%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-17 11:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 49.22%EV -12.60%E -7.12%K -16.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.55%EV -12.54%E -3.39%K -4.65%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.23%EV -13.65%E -4.26%K -6.20%G +0.000%14.8%2026-10-17 11:45
Winamax (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 48.70%EV -9.14%E -4.97%K -10.89%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.55%EV -13.72%E -3.76%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.75%EV -9.60%E -2.87%K -4.09%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-17 11:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.75%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.61%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.64%0.5%2026-10-17 11:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.00I 50.00%NM 49.49%4.30I 23.26%NM 23.02%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.49%1.0%2026-10-17 11:55
Smarkets◎1.99I 50.25%NM 49.16%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.29%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.55%2.2%2026-10-17 11:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.97I 50.76%NM 49.60%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.26%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.14%2.3%2026-10-17 11:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.97I 50.76%NM 49.60%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.26%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.14%2.3%2026-10-17 11:50