Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Metz v Rodez AF

Kickoff: 2026-09-05 12:00 UTC

Final: Metz 4–1 Rodez AF

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Metz (Local)

Prediction 47.45%2.11fair odd
EV -2.72%
Edge -1.33%
Kelly -2.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.40%47.35%47.60%49.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.961.952.0554.05%51.00%51.28%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rodez AF (Visit)

Prediction 26.40%3.79fair odd
EV +0.302%
Edge +0.079%
Kelly +0.108%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.29%26.46%26.28%28.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.443.453.8032.26%29.08%28.99%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.15%3.82fair odd
EV -1.93%
Edge -0.515%
Kelly -0.702%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.43%26.20%26.12%27.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.483.503.7530.30%28.70%28.57%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Metz (Local): 47.45%; Rodez AF (Visit): 26.40%; Draw: 26.15%. For Rodez AF (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.79. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.302%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.57%EV -9.84%E -5.18%K -10.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.29%EV +0.302%E +0.079%K +0.108%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.14%EV -11.08%E -3.26%K -4.62%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-04 13:25
Unibet (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.77%EV -7.47%E -3.83%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.84%EV -1.02%E -0.272%K -0.370%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -11.08%E -3.26%K -4.62%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-04 13:25
Tipico (DE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.66%EV -12.21%E -6.60%K -14.37%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.83%EV -2.34%E -0.632%K -0.866%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.52%EV -5.85%E -1.63%K -2.25%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-04 13:25
Pinnacle🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -6.04%E -3.05%K -6.17%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 25.92%EV -2.60%E -0.705%K -0.967%G +0.000%3.71I 26.95%NM 25.78%EV -2.98%E -0.802%K -1.10%G +0.000%4.6%2026-09-04 13:45
DraftKings🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.17%EV -7.47%E -3.83%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -4.98%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.74%EV -4.55%E -1.25%K -1.72%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-04 13:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -7.94%E -4.09%K -8.45%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -4.98%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.94%EV -5.85%E -1.63%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 14:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.03%EV -8.89%E -4.63%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.62%EV -4.98%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.47%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-04 13:24
Winamax (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.03%EV -8.89%E -4.63%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.62%EV -4.98%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.47%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-04 13:25
NetBet (FR)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 48.03%EV -8.89%E -4.63%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.62%EV -4.98%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.47%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-04 14:29
Codere (IT)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.41%EV -9.37%E -4.90%K -10.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.15%EV -4.98%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.44%EV -13.70%E -4.15%K -5.96%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-04 13:35
1xBet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.84%EV -6.99%E -3.57%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.12%EV -5.24%E -1.46%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.04%EV -5.85%E -1.63%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-04 14:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.63%EV -6.99%E -3.57%K -7.28%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.08%EV -5.51%E -1.54%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.30%EV -7.16%E -2.02%K -2.81%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-04 13:40
Bovada🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -9.37%E -4.90%K -10.29%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.72%EV -6.30%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.47%EV -9.78%E -2.83%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-04 13:43
BetUS🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 47.81%EV -9.37%E -4.90%K -10.29%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.72%EV -6.30%E -1.77%K -2.47%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.47%EV -9.78%E -2.83%K -3.99%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-04 13:45
LowVig.ag🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.14%EV -5.57%E -2.80%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -7.62%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -5.85%E -1.63%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-04 13:25
BetOnline.ag🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.14%EV -5.57%E -2.80%K -5.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -7.62%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%EV -5.85%E -1.63%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-04 13:25
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -7.47%E -3.83%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -7.62%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -5.85%E -1.63%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-04 12:49
betano_uk🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.90%EV -8.42%E -4.36%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -7.62%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -5.85%E -1.63%K -2.25%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-04 13:25
Bet Victor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 47.90%EV -8.42%E -4.36%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.42%EV -7.62%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.68%EV -5.85%E -1.63%K -2.25%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-04 13:28
Fanatics🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -7.47%E -3.83%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -7.62%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.08%E -3.26%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-04 13:25
888sport🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -7.47%E -3.83%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -7.62%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.08%E -3.26%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-04 12:50
888sport (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -7.47%E -3.83%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -7.62%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.08%E -3.26%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-04 12:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -7.47%E -3.83%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -7.62%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.08%E -3.26%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-04 12:49
William Hill🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -7.47%E -3.83%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -7.62%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -11.08%E -3.26%K -4.62%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-04 12:49
Betsson🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.32%EV -8.89%E -4.63%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -7.62%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.72%EV -11.08%E -3.26%K -4.62%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-04 13:25
NordicBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.32%EV -8.89%E -4.63%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -7.62%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.72%EV -11.08%E -3.26%K -4.62%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-04 13:25
PlayUp🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.13%EV -8.89%E -4.63%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.86%EV -7.62%E -2.18%K -3.05%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.01%EV -12.39%E -3.70%K -5.27%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-04 13:25
Unibet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.24%EV -4.15%E -2.05%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.07%EV -8.94%E -2.59%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -8.47%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-02 09:54
TABtouch🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.24%EV -4.15%E -2.05%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.07%EV -8.94%E -2.59%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -8.47%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-02 09:55
Grosvenor🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.24%EV -4.15%E -2.05%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.07%EV -8.94%E -2.59%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -8.47%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-02 09:55
Unibet (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.24%EV -4.15%E -2.05%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.07%EV -8.94%E -2.59%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -8.47%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-02 09:55
Unibet (NL)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.24%EV -4.15%E -2.05%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.07%EV -8.94%E -2.59%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -8.47%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-02 09:55
Casumo🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.24%EV -4.15%E -2.05%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.07%EV -8.94%E -2.59%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -8.47%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-02 09:55
PMU (FR)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.24%EV -4.15%E -2.05%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.07%EV -8.94%E -2.59%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -8.47%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-02 09:54
betPARX🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.24%EV -4.15%E -2.05%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.07%EV -8.94%E -2.59%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -8.47%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-02 09:54
Svenska Spel🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.24%EV -4.15%E -2.05%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.07%EV -8.94%E -2.59%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -8.47%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-02 09:54
ATG (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 46.24%EV -4.15%E -2.05%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.07%EV -8.94%E -2.59%K -3.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -8.47%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-02 09:54
Suprabets🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 47.56%EV -10.79%E -5.74%K -12.26%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 26.22%EV -9.99%E -2.93%K -4.15%G +0.000%3.41I 29.33%NM 26.22%EV -10.82%E -3.17%K -4.49%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-04 14:21
Coolbet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.52%EV -2.72%E -1.33%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.05%EV -10.26%E -3.02%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.43%EV -1.93%E -0.515%K -0.702%G +0.000%4.9%2026-09-02 09:59
BetMGM🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.65%EV -5.09%E -2.55%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -10.26%E -3.02%K -4.27%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.91%EV -5.85%E -1.63%K -2.25%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-02 06:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.65%EV -2.72%E -1.33%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.36%EV -12.90%E -3.91%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.99%EV -5.85%E -1.63%K -2.25%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-02 10:00
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -5.09%E -2.55%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -12.90%E -3.91%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -5.85%E -1.63%K -2.25%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-04 12:02
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.26%EV -5.09%E -2.55%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -12.90%E -3.91%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.70%EV -5.85%E -1.63%K -2.25%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-04 07:10
SportsBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -5.09%E -2.55%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -12.90%E -3.91%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -8.47%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-02 10:00
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -5.09%E -2.55%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -12.90%E -3.91%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -8.47%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-02 09:59
BetRivers🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.28%EV -8.42%E -4.36%K -9.05%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.06%EV -12.90%E -3.91%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.66%EV -12.39%E -3.70%K -5.27%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-02 09:54
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.06%EV -5.09%E -2.55%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.35%EV -14.22%E -4.37%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.59%EV -5.85%E -1.63%K -2.25%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-02 10:00
betfred_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.73%EV -5.09%E -2.55%K -5.09%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.14%EV -14.22%E -4.37%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.13%EV -8.47%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-02 10:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.03%EV -8.89%E -4.63%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.19%EV -14.22%E -4.37%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.78%EV -13.70%E -4.15%K -5.96%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-02 09:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.03%EV -8.89%E -4.63%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.19%EV -14.22%E -4.37%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.78%EV -13.70%E -4.15%K -5.96%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-02 09:54
LiveScore Bet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 46.03%EV -8.89%E -4.63%K -9.66%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.19%EV -14.22%E -4.37%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.78%EV -13.70%E -4.15%K -5.96%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-02 09:55
BoyleSports🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 46.68%EV -11.26%E -6.02%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.86%EV -14.22%E -4.37%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.45%EV -13.70%E -4.15%K -5.96%G +0.000%14.5%2026-09-02 05:40
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.16%EV -7.47%E -3.83%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.13%EV -15.54%E -4.85%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.72%EV -8.47%E -2.42%K -3.39%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-02 10:00
Neds🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -7.47%E -3.83%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -15.54%E -4.85%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -11.08%E -3.26%K -4.62%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-02 06:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -7.47%E -3.83%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -15.54%E -4.85%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -11.08%E -3.26%K -4.62%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-02 06:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -7.47%E -3.83%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -15.54%E -4.85%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -11.08%E -3.26%K -4.62%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-02 06:55
Coral🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.81%EV -7.47%E -3.83%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.92%EV -15.54%E -4.85%K -7.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.27%EV -11.08%E -3.26%K -4.62%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-02 06:54
Sky Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.40%EV -7.47%E -3.83%K -7.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.56%EV -18.18%E -5.86%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.04%EV -11.08%E -3.26%K -4.62%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-02 12:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets2.02I 49.50%NM 48.14%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.93%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.93%2.8%2026-09-04 14:05
Matchbook2.02I 49.50%NM 47.97%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.19%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.84%3.2%2026-09-04 14:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.02I 49.50%NM 47.63%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.36%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.01%3.9%2026-09-04 14:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.02I 49.50%NM 47.63%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.36%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.01%3.9%2026-09-04 14:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.02I 49.50%NM 47.63%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.36%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.01%3.9%2026-09-04 14:10