The School of Odds
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Metz v Pau FC

2026-10-30 19:00 UTC — Ligue 2 - France

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Metz (Local)

Prediction 46.25%2.16fair odd
EV -4.72%
Edge -2.29%
Kelly -4.45%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.80%46.38%46.17%47.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.961.982.0655.56%51.03%50.51%48.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pau FC (Visit)

Prediction 26.50%3.77fair odd
EV -5.11%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -1.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.31%26.56%26.54%27.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.423.443.5832.26%29.28%29.07%27.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.24%3.67fair odd
EV -1.92%
Edge -0.534%
Kelly -0.739%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.61%27.07%27.29%27.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.373.333.6032.26%29.71%30.08%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Metz (Local): 46.25%; Pau FC (Visit): 26.50%; Draw: 27.24%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.67. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.60, with an expected value of -1.92%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.06I 48.54%NM 46.03%EV -4.72%E -2.29%K -4.45%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.49%EV -5.11%E -1.43%K -1.98%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.48%EV -6.01%E -1.74%K -2.45%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-23 20:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -7.50%E -3.75%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -7.24%E -2.07%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.67%EV -4.65%E -1.33%K -1.86%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-23 20:40
SportsBet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -7.50%E -3.75%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -9.89%E -2.91%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -7.37%E -2.17%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-23 20:20
FanDuel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -7.50%E -3.75%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -9.89%E -2.91%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -7.37%E -2.17%K -3.07%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-23 20:19
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.94%EV -7.50%E -3.75%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -8.56%E -2.48%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.43%EV -8.73%E -2.61%K -3.72%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-24 01:04
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -7.50%E -3.75%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -7.24%E -2.07%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -10.09%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-23 21:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -7.50%E -3.75%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -7.24%E -2.07%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -10.09%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-23 21:09
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -7.50%E -3.75%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -7.24%E -2.07%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -10.09%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-23 21:09
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.92%EV -7.50%E -3.75%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -7.24%E -2.07%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.83%EV -10.09%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-23 21:15
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.57%EV -7.50%E -3.75%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.81%EV -9.89%E -2.91%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.62%EV -10.09%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-23 20:25
1xBet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 47.00%EV -7.96%E -4.00%K -8.04%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.88%EV -7.77%E -2.23%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.13%EV -2.47%E -0.689%K -0.956%G +0.000%6.9%2026-10-23 20:34
Betsson🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.37%EV -8.42%E -4.25%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -7.24%E -2.07%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -8.73%E -2.61%K -3.72%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-23 20:14
NordicBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 46.37%EV -8.42%E -4.25%K -8.59%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -7.24%E -2.07%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -8.73%E -2.61%K -3.72%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-23 20:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 47.25%EV -8.88%E -4.51%K -9.16%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.75%EV -7.77%E -2.23%K -3.13%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 26.00%EV -2.47%E -0.689%K -0.956%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-23 20:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.65%EV -9.81%E -5.03%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -7.24%E -2.07%K -2.89%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -1.92%E -0.534%K -0.739%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-23 20:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.28%EV -9.81%E -5.03%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -9.89%E -2.91%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.61%EV -1.92%E -0.534%K -0.739%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-23 20:20
Paddy Power🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.83%EV -9.81%E -5.03%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -12.54%E -3.80%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.08%EV -10.09%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-23 20:20
Betclic (FR)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.75%EV -11.66%E -6.10%K -12.81%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 26.03%EV -9.09%E -2.65%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 27.22%EV -10.64%E -3.24%K -4.67%G +0.000%12.0%2026-10-23 20:14
NetBet (FR)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.72%EV -11.66%E -6.10%K -12.81%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.24%EV -9.89%E -2.91%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -10.09%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-24 01:35
betfred_uk🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.72%EV -11.66%E -6.10%K -12.81%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.04%EV -12.54%E -3.80%K -5.45%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.24%EV -7.37%E -2.17%K -3.07%G +0.000%12.1%2026-10-23 20:20
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 44.80%EV -11.66%E -6.10%K -12.81%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.60%EV -17.84%E -5.75%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.60%EV -15.54%E -5.01%K -7.40%G +0.000%16.9%2026-10-23 20:47
Winamax (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 46.29%EV -12.12%E -6.38%K -13.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.06%EV -13.86%E -4.26%K -6.16%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.65%EV -10.09%E -3.06%K -4.39%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-23 20:54
Winamax (FR)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 46.43%EV -13.97%E -7.51%K -16.25%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.99%EV -15.19%E -4.75%K -6.90%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.57%EV -11.46%E -3.53%K -5.09%G +0.000%15.8%2026-10-23 20:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 47.80%EV -16.75%E -9.30%K -20.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.31%EV -9.89%E -2.91%K -4.12%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.89%EV -12.82%E -4.01%K -5.83%G +0.000%16.2%2026-10-23 20:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.88I 53.19%NM 45.58%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.78%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.64%16.7%2026-10-23 20:15