The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Metz v Pau FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-30 19:00 UTC

Final: Metz 1–3 Pau FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Metz (Local)

Prediction 44.43%2.25fair odd
EV -3.14%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -2.66%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.85%44.52%44.50%46.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.932.062.082.1851.81%48.45%48.08%45.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pau FC (Visit)

Prediction 27.15%3.68fair odd
EV -2.27%
Edge -0.631%
Kelly -0.874%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.81%27.14%27.12%28.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.343.353.6031.25%29.93%29.85%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 28.42%3.52fair odd
EV -2.24%
Edge -0.650%
Kelly -0.916%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.02%28.35%28.38%29.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.243.253.4433.33%30.84%30.77%29.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Metz (Local): 44.43%; Pau FC (Visit): 27.15%; Draw: 28.42%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.52. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.44, with an expected value of -2.24%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 44.21%EV -3.14%E -1.44%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.59I 27.86%NM 26.85%EV -2.54%E -0.708%K -0.982%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.94%EV -5.36%E -1.61%K -2.30%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-30 18:50
Betway🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.79%EV -4.47%E -2.08%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -7.70%E -2.26%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.53%EV -6.21%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-30 18:39
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -4.47%E -2.08%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -10.42%E -3.16%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -9.06%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-30 18:55
Betsson🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.16%EV -5.80%E -2.74%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.32%EV -9.06%E -2.70%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -11.90%E -3.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-30 18:55
NordicBet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.16%EV -5.80%E -2.74%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.32%EV -9.06%E -2.70%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -11.90%E -3.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-30 18:55
DraftKings🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.72%EV -6.69%E -3.19%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.83%EV -4.99%E -1.42%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.46%EV -6.21%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-30 18:40
BetOnline.ag🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.69%EV -6.69%E -3.19%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -3.63%E -1.02%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-30 18:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.69%EV -6.69%E -3.19%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -3.63%E -1.02%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-30 18:40
BetUS🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.69%EV -6.69%E -3.19%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.44%EV -3.63%E -1.02%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.39%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-30 18:50
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -6.69%E -3.19%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -7.70%E -2.26%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.06%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-30 18:50
picklebet_au🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.98%EV -6.69%E -3.19%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.16%EV -7.70%E -2.26%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.86%EV -9.06%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-30 18:55
betano_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -6.69%E -3.19%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -11.77%E -3.62%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-30 18:49
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -6.69%E -3.19%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -11.77%E -3.62%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.19%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-30 18:49
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -6.69%E -3.19%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -10.42%E -3.16%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.06%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-30 18:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -6.69%E -3.19%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -10.42%E -3.16%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.06%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-30 18:40
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -6.69%E -3.19%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -10.42%E -3.16%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.06%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-30 18:40
William Hill🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -6.69%E -3.19%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -10.42%E -3.16%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.06%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-30 18:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -6.69%E -3.19%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -11.77%E -3.62%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -9.06%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-30 18:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.85%EV -6.69%E -3.19%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -13.13%E -4.10%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -11.90%E -3.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-30 18:55
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.85%EV -6.69%E -3.19%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -13.13%E -4.10%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -11.90%E -3.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-30 18:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.85%EV -6.69%E -3.19%K -6.08%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.12%EV -13.13%E -4.10%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.03%EV -11.90%E -3.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%11.1%2026-10-30 18:55
Coolbet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.67%EV -7.58%E -3.64%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.39%EV -2.27%E -0.631%K -0.874%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.94%EV -3.37%E -0.992%K -1.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-30 18:34
Grosvenor🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.79%EV -7.58%E -3.64%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -9.06%E -2.70%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -3.37%E -0.992%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-30 18:15
TABtouch🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.79%EV -7.58%E -3.64%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -9.06%E -2.70%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -3.37%E -0.992%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-30 18:15
Unibet (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.79%EV -7.58%E -3.64%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -9.06%E -2.70%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -3.37%E -0.992%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-30 18:15
Casumo🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.79%EV -7.58%E -3.64%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -9.06%E -2.70%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -3.37%E -0.992%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-30 18:15
Unibet (NL)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.79%EV -7.58%E -3.64%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -9.06%E -2.70%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -3.37%E -0.992%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-30 18:15
Unibet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.79%EV -7.58%E -3.64%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -9.06%E -2.70%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -3.37%E -0.992%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-30 18:15
Svenska Spel🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.79%EV -7.58%E -3.64%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -9.06%E -2.70%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -3.37%E -0.992%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-30 18:15
betPARX🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.79%EV -7.58%E -3.64%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -9.06%E -2.70%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -3.37%E -0.992%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-30 18:14
ATG (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.79%EV -7.58%E -3.64%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -9.06%E -2.70%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -3.37%E -0.992%K -1.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-30 18:15
SportsBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.04%EV -7.58%E -3.64%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.34%EV -9.06%E -2.70%K -3.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -9.06%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-30 18:50
Betclic (FR)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 42.96%EV -7.58%E -3.64%K -7.02%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 27.75%EV -12.59%E -3.91%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.30%EV -13.32%E -4.37%K -6.50%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-30 18:55
Betr (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.69%EV -8.91%E -4.35%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.76%EV -4.99%E -1.42%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -3.37%E -0.992%K -1.41%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-30 18:35
1xBet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.55%EV -8.91%E -4.35%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.30%EV -7.16%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.15%EV -2.24%E -0.650%K -0.916%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-30 18:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.31%EV -8.91%E -4.35%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.54%EV -4.99%E -1.42%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -6.21%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-30 18:30
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.77%EV -8.91%E -4.35%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.99%EV -7.70%E -2.26%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-30 18:55
Fanatics🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.57%EV -8.91%E -4.35%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.87%EV -7.70%E -2.26%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.55%EV -9.06%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-30 18:40
PlayUp🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.01%EV -8.91%E -4.35%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -10.42%E -3.16%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.64%EV -10.48%E -3.33%K -4.87%G +0.000%10.8%2026-10-30 18:50
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.84%EV -8.91%E -4.35%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -13.13%E -4.10%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.08%EV -9.06%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-30 18:55
Paddy Power🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -8.91%E -4.35%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -10.42%E -3.16%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -11.90%E -3.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-30 18:35
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.81%EV -8.91%E -4.35%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -10.42%E -3.16%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.97%EV -11.90%E -3.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-30 18:50
Sky Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -8.91%E -4.35%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -11.77%E -3.62%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -11.90%E -3.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-30 18:39
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 43.44%EV -8.91%E -4.35%K -8.49%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.83%EV -13.13%E -4.10%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.73%EV -11.90%E -3.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-30 18:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 45.79%EV -9.80%E -4.83%K -9.51%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.18%EV -7.16%E -2.09%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.44I 29.07%NM 27.02%EV -2.24%E -0.650%K -0.916%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-30 18:40
Codere (IT)🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 45.23%EV -10.69%E -5.32%K -10.58%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.35%EV -6.34%E -1.84%K -2.59%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.41%EV -9.06%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-30 18:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.83%EV -11.13%E -5.57%K -11.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.59%EV -11.77%E -3.62%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.59%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.39%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-30 18:15
BetRivers🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.83%EV -11.13%E -5.57%K -11.13%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.59%EV -11.77%E -3.62%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.59%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.39%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-30 18:15
betfred_uk🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.82%EV -11.13%E -5.57%K -11.13%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -10.42%E -3.16%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -9.06%E -2.83%K -4.12%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-30 18:35
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.05%EV -11.13%E -5.57%K -11.13%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.53%EV -13.13%E -4.10%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.42%EV -11.90%E -3.84%K -5.67%G +0.000%13.5%2026-10-30 18:49
NetBet (FR)🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 44.75%EV -11.58%E -5.82%K -11.69%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.98%EV -10.42%E -3.16%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.27%EV -10.48%E -3.33%K -4.87%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-30 18:49
LiveScore Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.88%EV -12.02%E -6.07%K -12.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.77%EV -13.13%E -4.10%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.34%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.39%G +0.000%12.5%2026-10-30 18:15
Unibet (FR)🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 43.88%EV -12.02%E -6.07%K -12.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.15%EV -13.13%E -4.10%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.96%EV -14.74%E -4.91%K -7.37%G +0.000%15.1%2026-10-30 18:55
PMU (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.01%EV -12.47%E -6.33%K -12.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.71%EV -13.13%E -4.10%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.28%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.39%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-30 18:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 45.01%EV -12.47%E -6.33%K -12.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.71%EV -13.13%E -4.10%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.28%EV -7.64%E -2.35%K -3.39%G +0.000%12.8%2026-10-30 18:15
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 46.20%EV -13.35%E -6.85%K -14.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -7.70%E -2.26%K -3.21%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -6.21%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-30 18:30
Tipico (DE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 46.81%EV -14.24%E -7.38%K -15.32%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.81%EV -4.99%E -1.42%K -1.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.38%EV -6.21%E -1.88%K -2.70%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-30 18:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.19%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.12%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.69%1.0%2026-10-30 18:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.19%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.12%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.69%1.0%2026-10-30 18:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.19%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.12%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.69%1.0%2026-10-30 18:50
Matchbook◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.19%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.12%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.69%1.0%2026-10-30 18:50
Smarkets◎2.24I 44.64%NM 44.00%3.65I 27.40%NM 27.01%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.99%1.5%2026-10-30 18:50