The School of Odds
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Guingamp v Saint Etienne

Kickoff: 2026-10-31 19:00 UTC

Final: Guingamp 3–0 Saint Etienne

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Guingamp (Local)

Prediction 23.58%4.24fair odd
EV +1.38%
Edge +0.320%
Kelly +0.417%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 4.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.97%23.46%23.61%24.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.933.904.3027.78%25.47%25.64%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Saint Etienne (Visit)

Prediction 50.54%1.98fair odd
EV -2.97%
Edge -1.55%
Kelly -3.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.92

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.91%50.54%50.54%53.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.821.831.9259.88%54.92%54.64%52.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.89%3.86fair odd
EV -2.41%
Edge -0.639%
Kelly -0.870%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.91%26.00%25.86%28.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.153.483.503.7731.75%28.75%28.57%26.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Guingamp (Local): 23.58%; Saint Etienne (Visit): 50.54%; Draw: 25.89%. For Guingamp (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.24. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.38%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Tipico (DE)🎯4.30I 23.26%NM 20.97%EV +1.38%E +0.320%K +0.417%G +0.006%1.67I 59.88%NM 53.99%EV -15.60%E -9.34%K -23.29%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.04%EV -6.81%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-31 18:40
Unibet🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -3.34%E -0.814%K -1.08%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 49.98%EV -6.00%E -3.23%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.34%EV -11.99%E -3.53%K -4.99%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-31 15:50
FanDuel🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.67%EV -3.34%E -0.814%K -1.08%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.78%EV -7.52%E -4.11%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -9.40%E -2.69%K -3.76%G +0.000%7.6%2026-10-31 18:54
Casumo🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -3.34%E -0.814%K -1.08%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.12%EV -6.51%E -3.52%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -11.99%E -3.53%K -4.99%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-31 15:50
Grosvenor🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -3.34%E -0.814%K -1.08%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.12%EV -6.51%E -3.52%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -11.99%E -3.53%K -4.99%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-31 15:49
TABtouch🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -3.34%E -0.814%K -1.08%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.12%EV -6.51%E -3.52%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -11.99%E -3.53%K -4.99%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-31 15:50
Unibet (NL)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -3.34%E -0.814%K -1.08%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.12%EV -6.51%E -3.52%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -11.99%E -3.53%K -4.99%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-31 15:50
Unibet (SE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -3.34%E -0.814%K -1.08%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.12%EV -6.51%E -3.52%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -11.99%E -3.53%K -4.99%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-31 15:49
betPARX🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -3.34%E -0.814%K -1.08%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.12%EV -6.51%E -3.52%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -11.99%E -3.53%K -4.99%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-31 15:50
ATG (SE)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -3.34%E -0.814%K -1.08%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.12%EV -6.51%E -3.52%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -11.99%E -3.53%K -4.99%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-31 15:50
Svenska Spel🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.61%EV -3.34%E -0.814%K -1.08%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.12%EV -6.51%E -3.52%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.27%EV -11.99%E -3.53%K -4.99%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-31 15:49
Pinnacle🎯4.04I 24.75%NM 23.87%EV -4.75%E -1.18%K -1.56%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.49%EV -3.47%E -1.82%K -3.82%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.65%EV -2.67%E -0.710%K -0.967%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-31 18:45
Coolbet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -5.70%E -1.42%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.73%EV -4.99%E -2.65%K -5.67%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.43%EV -2.93%E -0.780%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-31 18:54
BetOnline.ag🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -5.70%E -1.42%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.33%EV -5.49%E -2.94%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -6.81%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-31 18:54
LowVig.ag🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -5.70%E -1.42%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.33%EV -5.49%E -2.94%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.14%EV -6.81%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-31 18:55
BetMGM🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.27%EV -5.70%E -1.42%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.87%EV -7.52%E -4.11%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.86%EV -6.81%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-31 18:55
Fanatics🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -5.70%E -1.42%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.50%EV -7.52%E -4.11%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.40%EV -9.40%E -2.69%K -3.76%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-31 18:40
SportsBet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.97%EV -5.70%E -1.42%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 50.77%EV -8.53%E -4.71%K -10.53%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.26%EV -9.40%E -2.69%K -3.76%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-31 18:55
Paddy Power🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -5.70%E -1.42%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -9.03%E -5.02%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -11.99%E -3.53%K -4.99%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-31 18:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -5.70%E -1.42%K -1.90%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.52%EV -9.03%E -5.02%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.75%EV -11.99%E -3.53%K -4.99%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-31 18:45
BetUS🎯3.97I 25.19%NM 24.27%EV -6.40%E -1.61%K -2.16%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 50.18%EV -2.97%E -1.55%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.55%EV -2.41%E -0.639%K -0.870%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-31 18:55
DraftKings🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.92%EV -6.87%E -1.74%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.54%EV -5.49%E -2.94%K -6.32%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.54%EV -4.22%E -1.14%K -1.56%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-31 18:54
picklebet_au🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.33%EV -6.87%E -1.74%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.35%EV -7.52%E -4.11%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -9.40%E -2.69%K -3.76%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-31 18:55
NordicBet🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.27%EV -6.87%E -1.74%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.69%EV -6.51%E -3.52%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -11.99%E -3.53%K -4.99%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-31 18:55
Betsson🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.27%EV -6.87%E -1.74%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.69%EV -6.51%E -3.52%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -11.99%E -3.53%K -4.99%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-31 18:55
Marathon Bet🎯3.94I 25.38%NM 23.61%EV -7.11%E -1.80%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 51.11%EV -8.02%E -4.41%K -9.78%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.28%EV -4.74%E -1.29%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-31 12:34
1xBet🎯3.92I 25.51%NM 23.83%EV -7.58%E -1.93%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 50.78%EV -7.01%E -3.81%K -8.35%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 25.39%EV -4.74%E -1.29%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-31 12:35
Betr (AU)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 24.03%EV -8.05%E -2.06%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.65%EV -6.51%E -3.52%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.32%EV -4.22%E -1.14%K -1.56%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-31 18:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.73%EV -8.05%E -2.06%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.57%EV -7.52%E -4.11%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.71%EV -6.81%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-31 18:55
Bovada🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.55%EV -8.05%E -2.06%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.20%EV -7.52%E -4.11%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -9.40%E -2.69%K -3.76%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-31 18:54
betano_uk🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.36%EV -8.05%E -2.06%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.61%EV -9.03%E -5.02%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -9.40%E -2.69%K -3.76%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-31 18:53
Bet Victor🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.36%EV -8.05%E -2.06%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.61%EV -9.03%E -5.02%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.03%EV -9.40%E -2.69%K -3.76%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-31 18:54
BetRivers🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.84%EV -8.05%E -2.06%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 49.76%EV -9.54%E -5.33%K -12.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.40%EV -15.87%E -4.88%K -7.05%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-31 15:49
Virgin Bet🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.84%EV -8.05%E -2.06%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 49.76%EV -9.54%E -5.33%K -12.07%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.40%EV -15.87%E -4.88%K -7.05%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-31 15:50
NetBet (FR)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.83%EV -8.05%E -2.06%K -2.78%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 48.91%EV -8.02%E -4.41%K -9.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.26%EV -18.46%E -5.86%K -8.59%G +0.000%12.3%2026-10-31 18:55
Codere (IT)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.61%EV -9.23%E -2.40%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 49.66%EV -7.52%E -4.11%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.73%EV -11.99%E -3.53%K -4.99%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-31 18:55
PlayUp🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 23.59%EV -9.23%E -2.40%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.46%EV -9.03%E -5.02%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.95%EV -9.40%E -2.69%K -3.76%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-31 18:55
LiveScore Bet🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 22.84%EV -9.23%E -2.40%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 49.68%EV -10.55%E -5.96%K -13.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.48%EV -17.16%E -5.36%K -7.80%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-31 15:51
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 22.84%EV -9.23%E -2.40%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 49.68%EV -10.55%E -5.96%K -13.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.48%EV -17.16%E -5.36%K -7.80%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-31 15:49
PMU (FR)🎯3.85I 25.97%NM 22.84%EV -9.23%E -2.40%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 49.68%EV -10.55%E -5.96%K -13.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.48%EV -17.16%E -5.36%K -7.80%G +0.000%13.7%2026-10-31 15:50
Betway🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -10.41%E -2.74%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 50.50%EV -6.51%E -3.52%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.91%EV -2.93%E -0.780%K -1.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-31 18:45
888sport🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -10.41%E -2.74%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -6.51%E -3.52%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.40%E -2.69%K -3.76%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-31 18:40
William Hill🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -10.41%E -2.74%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -6.51%E -3.52%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.40%E -2.69%K -3.76%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-31 18:40
888sport (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -10.41%E -2.74%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -6.51%E -3.52%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.40%E -2.69%K -3.76%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-31 18:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -10.41%E -2.74%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -6.51%E -3.52%K -7.65%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -9.40%E -2.69%K -3.76%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-31 18:40
Winamax (DE)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.91%EV -10.41%E -2.74%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.49%EV -9.03%E -5.02%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.60%EV -8.10%E -2.28%K -3.18%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-31 18:54
Neds🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -10.41%E -2.74%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.30%EV -9.03%E -5.02%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -9.40%E -2.69%K -3.76%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-31 18:55
Coral🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -10.41%E -2.74%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.30%EV -9.03%E -5.02%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -9.40%E -2.69%K -3.76%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-31 18:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -10.41%E -2.74%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.30%EV -9.03%E -5.02%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -9.40%E -2.69%K -3.76%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-31 18:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.83%EV -10.41%E -2.74%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.30%EV -9.03%E -5.02%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -9.40%E -2.69%K -3.76%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-31 18:55
theScore Bet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.80%EV -10.41%E -2.74%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 51.09%EV -10.55%E -5.96%K -13.70%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -6.81%E -1.89%K -2.62%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-31 18:55
Winamax (FR)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.78%EV -10.41%E -2.74%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 50.77%EV -10.04%E -5.64%K -12.88%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.45%EV -8.10%E -2.28%K -3.18%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-31 18:55
Betclic (FR)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.52%EV -10.41%E -2.74%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 50.20%EV -10.04%E -5.64%K -12.88%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.28%EV -11.99%E -3.53%K -4.99%G +0.000%11.9%2026-10-31 18:53
Sky Bet🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 23.46%EV -10.41%E -2.74%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.53%EV -9.03%E -5.02%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.01%EV -14.58%E -4.42%K -6.34%G +0.000%12.2%2026-10-31 18:55
Unibet (FR)🎯3.80I 26.32%NM 22.82%EV -10.41%E -2.74%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 51.30%EV -14.59%E -8.63%K -21.15%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.88%EV -13.28%E -3.96%K -5.65%G +0.000%15.3%2026-10-31 18:55
betfred_uk🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 23.89%EV -11.59%E -3.09%K -4.21%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 49.77%EV -9.03%E -5.02%K -11.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -11.99%E -3.53%K -4.99%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-31 18:55
BoyleSports🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.33%EV -15.13%E -4.20%K -5.82%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 50.64%EV -12.57%E -7.27%K -17.22%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.03%EV -9.40%E -2.69%K -3.76%G +0.000%14.2%2026-10-31 15:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.53%1.93I 51.81%NM 51.37%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.09%0.9%2026-10-31 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.47%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.50%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.02%1.1%2026-10-31 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.47%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.50%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.02%1.1%2026-10-31 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.47%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.50%3.80I 26.32%NM 26.02%1.1%2026-10-31 18:55
Smarkets◎4.40I 22.73%NM 22.40%1.92I 52.08%NM 51.33%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.28%1.5%2026-10-31 18:55