The School of Odds
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Guingamp v Pau FC

Kickoff: 2026-10-16 18:00 UTC

Final: Guingamp 1–2 Pau FC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Guingamp (Local)

Prediction 42.21%2.37fair odd
EV -5.04%
Edge -2.24%
Kelly -4.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.60%42.27%42.15%44.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.972.152.152.2550.76%46.53%46.51%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pau FC (Visit)

Prediction 30.11%3.32fair odd
EV -1.86%
Edge -0.569%
Kelly -0.821%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.64%30.11%30.14%31.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.853.063.053.2635.09%32.65%32.79%30.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.69%3.61fair odd
EV -3.09%
Edge -0.883%
Kelly -1.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.57%27.61%27.71%28.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.343.303.5032.26%29.95%30.30%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Guingamp (Local): 42.21%; Pau FC (Visit): 30.11%; Draw: 27.69%. For Pau FC (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.32. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.26, with an expected value of -1.86%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.76%EV -5.04%E -2.24%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.51%EV -1.86%E -0.569%K -0.821%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.73%EV -3.92%E -1.13%K -1.59%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-16 17:45
BetUS🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.71%EV -5.04%E -2.24%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 29.75%EV -2.76%E -0.854%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.54%EV -3.37%E -0.965%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-16 17:50
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -5.04%E -2.24%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -6.67%E -2.15%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -5.86%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-16 17:09
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.53%EV -5.04%E -2.24%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -6.67%E -2.15%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -8.63%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-16 17:14
BetMGM🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.12%EV -5.04%E -2.24%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.84%EV -9.68%E -3.23%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -8.63%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-16 17:10
Bet Victor🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.60%EV -5.04%E -2.24%K -4.03%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.72%EV -13.30%E -4.62%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.68%EV -8.63%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-16 17:55
BetOnline.ag🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.02%EV -5.46%E -2.44%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.88%EV -5.17%E -1.64%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.10%EV -7.24%E -2.16%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-16 17:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 42.02%EV -5.46%E -2.44%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.88%EV -5.17%E -1.64%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.10%EV -7.24%E -2.16%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-16 17:50
Coolbet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 42.97%EV -6.30%E -2.84%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.22I 31.06%NM 29.62%EV -3.06%E -0.950%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.41%EV -3.64%E -1.05%K -1.47%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-16 11:20
Betsson🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.48%EV -6.30%E -2.84%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.19%EV -8.18%E -2.68%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -10.01%E -3.08%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-16 17:15
NordicBet🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 41.48%EV -6.30%E -2.84%K -5.17%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.19%EV -8.18%E -2.68%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -10.01%E -3.08%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-16 17:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.15%E -3.25%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -6.67%E -2.15%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -5.86%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-16 13:40
Betway🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.15%E -3.25%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.11%EV -6.67%E -2.15%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.46%EV -5.86%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-16 13:35
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.08%EV -7.15%E -3.25%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.86%EV -6.67%E -2.15%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.05%EV -8.63%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.0%2026-10-16 17:55
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.88%EV -7.15%E -3.25%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.21%EV -8.18%E -2.68%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.92%EV -8.63%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-16 17:44
Fanatics🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -7.15%E -3.25%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -9.68%E -3.23%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -8.63%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-16 10:35
picklebet_au🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.67%EV -7.15%E -3.25%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -9.68%E -3.23%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.78%EV -8.63%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-16 17:35
betano_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.57%EV -7.15%E -3.25%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.53%EV -12.69%E -4.38%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.90%EV -5.86%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-16 17:09
Codere (IT)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -7.15%E -3.25%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.43%EV -9.68%E -3.23%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.09%EV -10.01%E -3.08%K -4.45%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-16 17:14
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -7.15%E -3.25%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -9.68%E -3.23%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -11.40%E -3.56%K -5.18%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-16 17:44
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -7.15%E -3.25%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -9.68%E -3.23%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -11.40%E -3.56%K -5.18%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-16 17:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -7.15%E -3.25%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -9.68%E -3.23%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -11.40%E -3.56%K -5.18%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-16 17:44
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.31%EV -7.15%E -3.25%K -5.96%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.29%EV -9.68%E -3.23%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.40%EV -11.40%E -3.56%K -5.18%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-16 17:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -7.15%E -3.25%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -13.30%E -4.62%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -11.40%E -3.56%K -5.18%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-16 17:10
Neds🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.79%EV -7.15%E -3.25%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.16%EV -13.30%E -4.62%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.05%EV -11.40%E -3.56%K -5.18%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-16 17:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.75%EV -7.15%E -3.25%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -13.60%E -4.74%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -11.40%E -3.56%K -5.18%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-16 17:09
Coral🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.75%EV -7.15%E -3.25%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.24%EV -13.60%E -4.74%K -7.27%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -11.40%E -3.56%K -5.18%G +0.000%11.5%2026-10-16 17:10
SportsBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 42.12%EV -7.99%E -3.67%K -6.77%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.62%EV -6.67%E -2.15%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.25%EV -10.01%E -3.08%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.9%2026-10-16 17:55
1xBet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.47%EV -9.26%E -4.31%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.67%EV -5.17%E -1.64%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.86%EV -3.64%E -1.05%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-15 23:39
Betr (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -9.26%E -4.31%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -6.67%E -2.15%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -3.09%E -0.883%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.3%2026-10-16 12:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.18%EV -9.26%E -4.31%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.74%EV -11.19%E -3.79%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -7.24%E -2.16%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-16 17:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.18%EV -9.26%E -4.31%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.74%EV -11.19%E -3.79%K -5.74%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.07%EV -7.24%E -2.16%K -3.08%G +0.000%10.3%2026-10-16 17:15
PlayUp🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.05%EV -9.26%E -4.31%K -8.05%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.13%EV -9.68%E -3.23%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.82%EV -10.01%E -3.08%K -4.45%G +0.000%10.6%2026-10-16 17:55
Betclic (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.89%EV -9.26%E -4.31%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 30.22%EV -10.28%E -3.45%K -5.19%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 27.88%EV -10.57%E -3.27%K -4.74%G +0.000%11.0%2026-10-16 17:34
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.07%EV -9.26%E -4.31%K -8.05%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.45%EV -12.69%E -4.38%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.48%EV -14.16%E -4.57%K -6.75%G +0.000%13.3%2026-10-16 17:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 43.66%EV -10.10%E -4.74%K -8.94%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.62%EV -5.47%E -1.74%K -2.56%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 26.72%EV -3.64%E -1.05%K -1.47%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-15 23:35
Tipico (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57%EV -11.37%E -5.41%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.52%EV -6.67%E -2.15%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.91%EV -5.86%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-16 17:15
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.15%EV -11.37%E -5.41%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.20%EV -9.68%E -3.23%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.65%EV -5.86%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000%10.4%2026-10-15 23:50
NetBet (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.83%EV -11.37%E -5.41%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.49%EV -8.18%E -2.68%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.68%EV -10.01%E -3.08%K -4.45%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-16 17:15
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -11.37%E -5.41%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -9.68%E -3.23%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -10.01%E -3.08%K -4.45%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-16 17:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -11.37%E -5.41%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.84%EV -9.68%E -3.23%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.54%EV -10.01%E -3.08%K -4.45%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-16 17:55
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.27%EV -11.37%E -5.41%K -10.33%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 30.82%EV -13.30%E -4.62%K -7.07%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.90%EV -8.63%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000%12.6%2026-10-16 10:29
Casumo🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.76%EV -12.21%E -5.87%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -2.16%E -0.663%K -0.958%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -3.09%E -0.883%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-15 23:45
Grosvenor🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.76%EV -12.21%E -5.87%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -2.16%E -0.663%K -0.958%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -3.09%E -0.883%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-15 23:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.76%EV -12.21%E -5.87%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -2.16%E -0.663%K -0.958%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -3.09%E -0.883%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-15 23:45
Unibet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.76%EV -12.21%E -5.87%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -2.16%E -0.663%K -0.958%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -3.09%E -0.883%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-15 23:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.76%EV -12.21%E -5.87%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -2.16%E -0.663%K -0.958%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -3.09%E -0.883%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-15 23:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.76%EV -12.21%E -5.87%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -2.16%E -0.663%K -0.958%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -3.09%E -0.883%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-15 23:45
betPARX🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.76%EV -12.21%E -5.87%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -2.16%E -0.663%K -0.958%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -3.09%E -0.883%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-15 23:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.76%EV -12.21%E -5.87%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -2.16%E -0.663%K -0.958%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -3.09%E -0.883%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-15 23:45
TABtouch🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 44.76%EV -12.21%E -5.87%K -11.31%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.64%EV -2.16%E -0.663%K -0.958%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.60%EV -3.09%E -0.883%K -1.24%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-15 23:45
BoyleSports🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.60%EV -13.48%E -6.57%K -12.84%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.11%EV -12.69%E -4.38%K -6.68%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.29%EV -11.40%E -3.56%K -5.18%G +0.000%14.5%2026-10-16 13:40
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.37%EV -13.48%E -6.57%K -12.84%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.48%EV -14.20%E -4.98%K -7.67%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.15%EV -11.40%E -3.56%K -5.18%G +0.000%15.1%2026-10-16 17:35
PMU (FR)🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 44.29%EV -13.90%E -6.81%K -13.37%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.14%EV -6.67%E -2.15%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.57%EV -5.86%E -1.72%K -2.44%G +0.000%10.7%2026-10-16 11:54
Virgin Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.35%EV -14.74%E -7.30%K -14.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -6.67%E -2.15%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.74%EV -7.24%E -2.16%K -3.08%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-15 23:45
BetRivers🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 44.35%EV -14.74%E -7.30%K -14.46%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -6.67%E -2.15%K -3.18%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.74%EV -7.24%E -2.16%K -3.08%G +0.000%11.6%2026-10-15 23:45
LiveScore Bet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 44.46%EV -16.43%E -8.30%K -16.77%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.86%EV -8.18%E -2.68%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.68%EV -8.63%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000%13.6%2026-10-15 23:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 44.59%EV -16.86%E -8.56%K -17.38%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.80%EV -8.18%E -2.68%K -3.99%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.62%EV -8.63%E -2.61%K -3.75%G +0.000%13.9%2026-10-15 23:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.23%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.94%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.83%1.2%2026-10-16 17:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.23%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.94%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.83%1.2%2026-10-16 17:55
Matchbook◎2.34I 42.74%NM 42.23%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.94%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.83%1.2%2026-10-16 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.43%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.83%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.73%1.6%2026-10-16 17:55
Smarkets◎2.32I 43.10%NM 42.27%3.30I 30.30%NM 29.72%3.50I 28.57%NM 28.02%2.0%2026-10-16 17:55