Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.80
assuming max odds 2.57
assuming max odds 3.50
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dijon (Local): 34.69%; Metz (Visit): 37.64%; Draw: 27.67%. For Dijon (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.88. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.80, with an expected value of -2.87%; they did not produce positive expected value.
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetUS🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.69%EV -2.87%E -1.02%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.73%EV -5.90%E -2.36%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -8.69%E -2.63%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-10-12 18:39 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -2.87%E -1.02%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -13.42%E -5.84%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.08%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-12 06:19 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.83%EV -2.87%E -1.02%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.52%EV -7.78%E -3.18%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.65%EV -14.23%E -4.59%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-12 18:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.78I 35.97%NM 34.66%EV -3.56%E -1.28%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 2.57I 38.91%NM 37.49%EV -3.26%E -1.27%K -2.08%G +0.000% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.85%EV -4.27%E -1.23%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-10-12 18:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.85%EV -3.56%E -1.28%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.64%EV -5.90%E -2.36%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.51%EV -8.69%E -2.63%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-12 18:39 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.85%EV -3.56%E -1.28%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.64%EV -5.90%E -2.36%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.51%EV -8.69%E -2.63%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-10-12 18:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.65%EV -4.60%E -1.67%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -5.90%E -2.36%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -3.16%E -0.903%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-10-12 18:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -4.60%E -1.67%K -2.63%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -9.66%E -4.03%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.97%EV -8.69%E -2.63%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-10-12 18:19 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.71I 36.90%NM 34.33%EV -5.99%E -2.21%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 38.93%EV -10.04%E -4.20%K -7.22%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 26.74%EV -3.71%E -1.07%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-12 18:25 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.05%EV -6.34%E -2.35%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.11%EV -4.01%E -1.57%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.84%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-10-12 18:39 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.79%EV -6.34%E -2.35%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.58%EV -5.90%E -2.36%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-10-12 18:39 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -6.34%E -2.35%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.05%EV -7.78%E -3.18%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.42%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-10-12 18:39 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.45%EV -6.34%E -2.35%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.48%EV -4.01%E -1.57%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.07%EV -11.46%E -3.58%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-10-12 18:39 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -6.34%E -2.35%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.38%EV -9.66%E -4.03%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.50%EV -7.31%E -2.18%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-12 18:19 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -6.34%E -2.35%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.38%EV -9.66%E -4.03%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.50%EV -7.31%E -2.18%K -3.11%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-12 18:19 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.10%EV -6.34%E -2.35%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.58%EV -7.78%E -3.18%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.33%EV -10.08%E -3.10%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-10-12 18:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -6.34%E -2.35%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -9.66%E -4.03%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.80%EV -8.69%E -2.63%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-12 18:24 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -6.34%E -2.35%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -13.42%E -5.84%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -11.46%E -3.58%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-12 18:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -6.34%E -2.35%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -13.42%E -5.84%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -11.46%E -3.58%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-12 18:20 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -6.34%E -2.35%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -13.42%E -5.84%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -11.46%E -3.58%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-12 18:19 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 33.14%EV -6.34%E -2.35%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 38.90%EV -13.42%E -5.84%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.96%EV -11.46%E -3.58%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-12 18:19 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.95%EV -8.07%E -3.05%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.81%EV -7.78%E -3.18%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-10-12 18:40 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -8.07%E -3.05%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.29%EV -9.66%E -4.03%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-10-12 18:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.62%EV -8.07%E -3.05%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.70%EV -5.90%E -2.36%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -11.46%E -3.58%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-10-12 18:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.37%EV -8.07%E -3.05%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.17%EV -7.78%E -3.18%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -11.46%E -3.58%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-12 18:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.37%EV -8.07%E -3.05%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.17%EV -7.78%E -3.18%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.46%EV -11.46%E -3.58%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-10-12 18:19 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.26%EV -8.07%E -3.05%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 37.36%EV -8.53%E -3.51%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.37%EV -11.46%E -3.58%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-10-12 18:24 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 34.48%EV -8.77%E -3.33%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.27%EV -5.90%E -2.36%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.25%EV -14.23%E -4.59%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-12 18:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.63I 38.02%NM 33.96%EV -8.77%E -3.33%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.22%EV -9.66%E -4.03%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 28.82%EV -14.23%E -4.59%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-10-12 18:19 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.76%EV -9.11%E -3.48%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -5.90%E -2.36%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -3.16%E -0.903%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-12 18:38 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.76%EV -9.11%E -3.48%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -5.90%E -2.36%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.77%EV -3.16%E -0.903%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-12 18:38 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.49%EV -9.11%E -3.48%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 37.80%EV -7.40%E -3.01%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 3.48I 28.74%NM 26.72%EV -3.71%E -1.07%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-10-12 18:39 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -9.11%E -3.48%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -9.66%E -4.03%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -5.93%E -1.74%K -2.47%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-10-12 18:39 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -9.11%E -3.48%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -5.90%E -2.36%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -11.46%E -3.58%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-12 18:39 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -9.11%E -3.48%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -5.90%E -2.36%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -11.46%E -3.58%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-12 18:39 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.88%EV -9.11%E -3.48%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.56%EV -5.90%E -2.36%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.56%EV -11.46%E -3.58%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-10-12 18:40 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.62%EV -9.11%E -3.48%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 37.48%EV -8.91%E -3.68%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.91%EV -10.08%E -3.10%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-10-12 18:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 34.56%EV -9.11%E -3.48%K -5.63%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.22%EV -5.90%E -2.36%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.21%EV -14.23%E -4.59%K -6.77%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-10-12 18:39 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.06%EV -9.81%E -3.77%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.77%EV -4.01%E -1.57%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -4.54%E -1.32%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-12 18:29 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.06%EV -9.81%E -3.77%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.77%EV -4.01%E -1.57%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -4.54%E -1.32%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-12 18:29 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.06%EV -9.81%E -3.77%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.77%EV -4.01%E -1.57%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -4.54%E -1.32%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-12 18:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.06%EV -9.81%E -3.77%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.77%EV -4.01%E -1.57%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -4.54%E -1.32%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-12 18:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.06%EV -9.81%E -3.77%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.77%EV -4.01%E -1.57%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -4.54%E -1.32%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-12 18:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.06%EV -9.81%E -3.77%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.77%EV -4.01%E -1.57%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -4.54%E -1.32%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-12 18:29 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.06%EV -9.81%E -3.77%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.77%EV -4.01%E -1.57%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -4.54%E -1.32%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-12 18:29 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.06%EV -9.81%E -3.77%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.77%EV -4.01%E -1.57%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -4.54%E -1.32%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-12 18:29 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.06%EV -9.81%E -3.77%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.77%EV -4.01%E -1.57%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -4.54%E -1.32%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-12 18:29 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.06%EV -9.81%E -3.77%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.77%EV -4.01%E -1.57%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.17%EV -4.54%E -1.32%K -1.85%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-10-12 18:29 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.55%EV -9.81%E -3.77%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.23%EV -11.54%E -4.91%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.22%EV -8.69%E -2.63%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-10-12 18:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.41%EV -9.81%E -3.77%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 38.07%EV -11.54%E -4.91%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.53%EV -10.08%E -3.10%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-12 18:39 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 34.84%EV -10.50%E -4.07%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 37.76%EV -10.41%E -4.38%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 3.28I 30.49%NM 27.40%EV -9.25%E -2.82%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 11.3% | 2026-10-12 18:24 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 35.39%EV -11.54%E -4.53%K -7.45%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.84%EV -7.78%E -3.18%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.77%EV -10.08%E -3.10%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 10.8% | 2026-10-12 18:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 34.86%EV -13.28%E -5.31%K -8.85%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 37.90%EV -13.42%E -5.84%K -10.33%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.24%EV -11.46%E -3.58%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 14.7% | 2026-10-12 18:24 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 36.07%EV -13.97%E -5.63%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 36.82%EV -8.53%E -3.51%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.11%EV -8.69%E -2.63%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-12 18:29 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 36.07%EV -13.97%E -5.63%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 2.43I 41.15%NM 36.82%EV -8.53%E -3.51%K -5.97%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.11%EV -8.69%E -2.63%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-10-12 18:29 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.19%EV -15.01%E -6.13%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.94%EV -9.66%E -4.03%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -8.69%E -2.63%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-10-12 18:29 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.19%EV -15.01%E -6.13%K -10.35%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 36.94%EV -9.66%E -4.03%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.87%EV -8.69%E -2.63%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-10-12 18:29 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.84I 35.21%NM 34.97% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.25% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.79% | 0.7% | 2026-10-12 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.84I 35.21%NM 34.97% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.25% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.79% | 0.7% | 2026-10-12 18:39 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.84I 35.21%NM 34.97% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.25% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.79% | 0.7% | 2026-10-12 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.82I 35.46%NM 35.13% | 2.74I 36.50%NM 36.16% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.71% | 0.9% | 2026-10-12 18:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.84I 35.21%NM 34.45% | 2.66I 37.59%NM 36.78% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.77% | 2.2% | 2026-10-12 18:40 |