Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Clermont v Boulogne

Kickoff: 2026-09-11 18:00 UTC

Final: Clermont 0–0 Boulogne

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Clermont (Local)

Prediction 40.25%2.48fair odd
EV -4.20%
Edge -1.76%
Kelly -3.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.28%40.27%40.21%41.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.272.302.3846.51%43.97%43.48%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Boulogne (Visit)

Prediction 29.21%3.42fair odd
EV -0.696%
Edge -0.205%
Kelly -0.290%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.15%29.12%29.22%30.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.133.153.4033.90%31.94%31.75%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.54%3.27fair odd
EV -2.27%
Edge -0.711%
Kelly -1.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.92%30.60%30.56%33.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.753.023.003.2036.36%33.12%33.33%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Clermont (Local): 40.25%; Boulogne (Visit): 29.21%; Draw: 30.54%. For Boulogne (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.42. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.40, with an expected value of -0.696%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.78%EV -4.20%E -1.76%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.19I 31.35%NM 29.68%EV -6.83%E -2.14%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.54%EV -5.33%E -1.72%K -2.54%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-09 13:31
Coolbet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.50%EV -5.40%E -2.30%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.28%EV -5.08%E -1.56%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.21%EV -3.80%E -1.21%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-09 05:23
1xBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.86%EV -5.40%E -2.30%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.73%EV -8.00%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.41%EV -5.94%E -1.93%K -2.86%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-09 17:30
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -5.40%E -2.30%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.65%EV -8.00%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.62%EV -6.86%E -2.25%K -3.34%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-09 12:19
Tipico (DE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -5.40%E -2.30%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.15%EV -0.696%E -0.205%K -0.290%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.57%EV -16.02%E -5.82%K -9.15%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-09 15:30
BetOnline.ag🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 39.56%EV -5.81%E -2.48%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.38%EV -8.00%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.06%EV -8.99%E -3.02%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-09 11:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 39.56%EV -5.81%E -2.48%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.38%EV -8.00%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.06%EV -8.99%E -3.02%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-09 11:50
BetUS🎯2.34I 42.74%NM 39.56%EV -5.81%E -2.48%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.38%EV -8.00%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.06%EV -8.99%E -3.02%K -4.54%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-09 11:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.02%EV -6.21%E -2.66%K -4.67%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 29.70%EV -8.29%E -2.64%K -3.87%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 30.28%EV -5.94%E -1.93%K -2.86%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-09 17:30
TABtouch🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -7.42%E -3.22%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -8.00%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -3.80%E -1.21%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 21:20
Casumo🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -7.42%E -3.22%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -8.00%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -3.80%E -1.21%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 21:19
Unibet (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -7.42%E -3.22%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -8.00%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -3.80%E -1.21%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 21:20
Unibet (NL)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -7.42%E -3.22%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -8.00%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -3.80%E -1.21%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 21:20
Grosvenor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -7.42%E -3.22%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -8.00%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -3.80%E -1.21%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 21:20
PMU (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -7.42%E -3.22%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -8.00%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -3.80%E -1.21%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 21:20
Unibet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -7.42%E -3.22%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -8.00%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -3.80%E -1.21%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 21:20
betPARX🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -7.42%E -3.22%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -8.00%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -3.80%E -1.21%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 21:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -7.42%E -3.22%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -8.00%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -3.80%E -1.21%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 21:19
ATG (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -7.42%E -3.22%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -8.00%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.68%EV -3.80%E -1.21%K -1.77%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-06 21:20
Betr (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -7.42%E -3.22%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -5.33%E -1.72%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-09 05:19
BetMGM🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.64%EV -7.42%E -3.22%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.21%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.15%EV -5.33%E -1.72%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-08 22:20
Unibet (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.59%EV -7.42%E -3.22%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.29%EV -3.62%E -1.10%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.12%EV -8.38%E -2.79%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-08 22:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -7.42%E -3.22%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -9.46%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.87%EV -5.33%E -1.72%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-09 05:25
Betway🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.23%EV -7.42%E -3.22%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.85%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -2.27%E -0.711%K -1.03%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-08 06:04
betano_uk🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.94%EV -7.42%E -3.22%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.44%EV -8.87%E -2.84%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.62%EV -8.38%E -2.79%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-08 22:44
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.94%EV -7.42%E -3.22%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.44%EV -8.87%E -2.84%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.62%EV -8.38%E -2.79%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-08 22:44
Bovada🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.84%EV -7.42%E -3.22%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.09%EV -8.00%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.06%EV -9.91%E -3.36%K -5.08%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-09 15:54
888sport🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -7.42%E -3.22%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.46%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -11.44%E -3.94%K -6.02%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-05 23:05
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -7.42%E -3.22%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.46%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -11.44%E -3.94%K -6.02%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-05 23:04
888sport (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -7.42%E -3.22%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.46%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -11.44%E -3.94%K -6.02%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-05 23:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.45%EV -7.42%E -3.22%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.27%EV -9.46%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.29%EV -11.44%E -3.94%K -6.02%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-05 23:04
Betsson🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.28%EV -8.22%E -3.61%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.26%EV -5.08%E -1.56%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.45%EV -10.83%E -3.71%K -5.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-08 22:20
NordicBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 40.28%EV -8.22%E -3.61%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.26%EV -5.08%E -1.56%K -2.26%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 31.45%EV -10.83%E -3.71%K -5.64%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-08 22:19
Betclic (FR)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 40.84%EV -8.62%E -3.80%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 28.26%EV -4.20%E -1.28%K -1.84%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.90%EV -8.38%E -2.79%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-08 22:20
NetBet (FR)🎯2.27I 44.05%NM 40.16%EV -8.62%E -3.80%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.94%EV -8.00%E -2.54%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.90%EV -9.91%E -3.36%K -5.08%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-09 12:36
Codere (IT)🎯2.26I 44.25%NM 40.23%EV -9.03%E -3.99%K -7.16%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.41%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.35%EV -11.44%E -3.94%K -6.02%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-08 22:44
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.93%EV -9.43%E -4.19%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.59%EV -3.62%E -1.10%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.48%EV -2.27%E -0.711%K -1.03%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-09 00:30
Fanatics🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -9.43%E -4.19%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.95%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.88%EV -5.33%E -1.72%K -2.54%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-07 14:20
betfred_uk🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -9.43%E -4.19%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -9.46%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.61%EV -5.33%E -1.72%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-05 23:05
PlayUp🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.00%EV -9.43%E -4.19%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.00%EV -8.38%E -2.79%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-09 09:09
Neds🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -9.43%E -4.19%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -11.44%E -3.94%K -6.02%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-08 22:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -9.43%E -4.19%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -11.44%E -3.94%K -6.02%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-08 22:20
Coral🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -9.43%E -4.19%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -11.44%E -3.94%K -6.02%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-08 22:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -9.43%E -4.19%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -11.44%E -3.94%K -6.02%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-08 22:44
BoyleSports🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -9.43%E -4.19%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.69%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -11.44%E -3.94%K -6.02%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-09 13:35
Suprabets🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.35%EV -9.43%E -4.19%K -7.54%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.01%EV -13.84%E -4.69%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 30.64%EV -11.74%E -4.06%K -6.21%G +0.000%12.9%2026-09-09 12:25
BetRivers🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 40.21%EV -10.23%E -4.59%K -8.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -12.38%E -4.13%K -6.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.89%EV -8.38%E -2.79%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-06 21:20
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -11.44%E -5.20%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -5.33%E -1.72%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-09 00:29
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -11.44%E -5.20%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -5.33%E -1.72%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-09 00:27
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -11.44%E -5.20%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.68%EV -6.54%E -2.04%K -2.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.60%EV -5.33%E -1.72%K -2.54%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-09 00:28
Unibet (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.45%EV -11.44%E -5.20%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.63%EV -3.62%E -1.10%K -1.57%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.91%EV -9.91%E -3.36%K -5.08%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-08 22:20
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.93%EV -11.44%E -5.20%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.05%EV -9.46%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.02%EV -8.38%E -2.79%K -4.19%G +0.000%11.0%2026-09-05 23:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.73%EV -11.44%E -5.20%K -9.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.90%EV -9.46%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 30.37%EV -9.91%E -3.36%K -5.08%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-08 22:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.14%EV -11.44%E -5.20%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.93%EV -13.84%E -4.69%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.93%EV -9.91%E -3.36%K -5.08%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-06 21:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.14%EV -11.44%E -5.20%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.93%EV -13.84%E -4.69%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.93%EV -9.91%E -3.36%K -5.08%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-06 21:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.14%EV -11.44%E -5.20%K -9.53%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.93%EV -13.84%E -4.69%K -7.10%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.93%EV -9.91%E -3.36%K -5.08%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-06 21:20
Sky Bet🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.49%EV -13.45%E -6.26%K -11.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -9.46%E -3.05%K -4.50%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.73%EV -8.38%E -2.79%K -4.19%G +0.000%12.1%2026-09-09 00:30
Winamax (FR)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 40.88%EV -13.45%E -6.26%K -11.70%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 28.82%EV -10.92%E -3.58%K -5.33%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.31%EV -11.44%E -3.94%K -6.02%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-08 22:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 40.01%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.60%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.39%5.0%2026-09-09 16:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 40.01%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.60%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.39%5.0%2026-09-09 16:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 40.01%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.60%2.94I 34.01%NM 32.39%5.0%2026-09-09 16:50
Smarkets◎2.36I 42.37%NM 39.96%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.74%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.30%6.0%2026-09-09 17:40
Matchbook◎2.20I 45.45%NM 40.38%2.96I 33.78%NM 30.01%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.61%12.6%2026-09-09 17:00