Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Boulogne v Nantes

Kickoff: 2026-09-19 12:00 UTC

Final: Boulogne 1–2 Nantes

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (22 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Boulogne (Local)

Prediction 27.29%3.66fair odd
EV -0.920%
Edge -0.253%
Kelly -0.350%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.53%27.26%27.33%28.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.353.383.6332.26%29.81%29.63%27.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nantes (Visit)

Prediction 43.59%2.29fair odd
EV -3.24%
Edge -1.46%
Kelly -2.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.23%43.60%43.63%45.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.102.102.2250.00%47.51%47.62%45.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 29.12%3.43fair odd
EV -3.91%
Edge -1.18%
Kelly -1.70%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.40%29.15%29.05%30.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.943.173.153.3034.01%31.58%31.75%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Boulogne (Local): 27.29%; Nantes (Visit): 43.59%; Draw: 29.12%. For Boulogne (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.66. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.63, with an expected value of -0.920%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯3.63I 27.55%NM 26.38%EV -0.920%E -0.253%K -0.350%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.13%EV -3.24%E -1.46%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.49%EV -8.57%E -2.73%K -4.00%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-18 15:10
Tipico (DE)🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.53%EV -1.74%E -0.483%K -0.669%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.83%EV -10.65%E -5.19%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -9.73%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-17 18:54
DraftKings🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.14%EV -4.47%E -1.28%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.18%EV -4.11%E -1.87%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.68%EV -6.82%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-18 14:10
Coolbet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -4.47%E -1.28%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.13%EV -6.29%E -2.93%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.75%EV -3.91%E -1.18%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-13 12:20
Unibet (UK)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.88%EV -4.47%E -1.28%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.77%EV -4.11%E -1.87%K -3.43%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.35%EV -9.73%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-18 14:09
BetOnline.ag🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -4.47%E -1.28%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.33%EV -3.24%E -1.46%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.81%EV -11.19%E -3.67%K -5.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-18 15:25
LowVig.ag🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -4.47%E -1.28%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.33%EV -3.24%E -1.46%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.81%EV -11.19%E -3.67%K -5.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-18 15:24
BetUS🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -4.47%E -1.28%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.33%EV -3.24%E -1.46%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.81%EV -11.19%E -3.67%K -5.46%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-18 15:25
Betway🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -4.47%E -1.28%K -1.79%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.33%EV -6.29%E -2.93%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -9.73%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-18 14:14
1xBet🎯3.44I 29.07%NM 27.17%EV -6.11%E -1.78%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.51%EV -8.47%E -4.03%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.32%EV -3.91%E -1.18%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-14 15:25
Marathon Bet🎯3.44I 29.07%NM 27.05%EV -6.11%E -1.78%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.74%EV -9.34%E -4.49%K -8.65%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.20%EV -3.91%E -1.18%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-14 15:24
Betr (AU)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -8.47%E -4.03%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -3.91%E -1.18%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-12 14:20
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -8.47%E -4.03%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -3.91%E -1.18%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-16 12:00
BetMGM🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.37%EV -8.47%E -4.03%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -3.91%E -1.18%K -1.70%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-15 20:25
Grosvenor🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.94%EV -7.60%E -3.58%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -5.36%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-16 08:20
Unibet (NL)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.94%EV -7.60%E -3.58%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -5.36%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-16 08:20
PMU (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.94%EV -7.60%E -3.58%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -5.36%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-17 05:11
Unibet (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.94%EV -7.60%E -3.58%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -5.36%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-16 08:20
TABtouch🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.94%EV -7.60%E -3.58%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -5.36%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-16 08:20
Casumo🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.94%EV -7.60%E -3.58%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -5.36%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-16 08:20
Unibet🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.94%EV -7.60%E -3.58%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -5.36%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-16 08:20
betPARX🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.94%EV -7.60%E -3.58%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -5.36%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-16 08:20
Svenska Spel🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.94%EV -7.60%E -3.58%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -5.36%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-16 08:20
ATG (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.40%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.94%EV -7.60%E -3.58%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.66%EV -5.36%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-16 08:20
PointsBet (AU)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.28%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.17%EV -8.47%E -4.03%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.54%EV -5.36%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-12 14:20
Fanatics🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -6.29%E -2.93%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -9.73%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-18 13:45
FanDuel🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.11%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.96%EV -10.65%E -5.19%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.93%EV -3.91%E -1.18%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-18 12:04
Bovada🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.78%EV -8.47%E -4.03%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.18%EV -8.27%E -2.63%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-18 13:44
NetBet (FR)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.62%EV -7.20%E -2.12%K -3.00%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 43.72%EV -9.78%E -4.72%K -9.14%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.67%EV -11.19%E -3.67%K -5.46%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-18 15:30
SportsBet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.40%EV -8.56%E -2.56%K -3.64%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.78%EV -10.65%E -5.19%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.82%EV -3.91%E -1.18%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-12 14:20
betano_uk🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.93%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -6.29%E -2.93%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -6.82%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-18 15:10
Bet Victor🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.04%EV -9.93%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04%EV -6.29%E -2.93%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.92%EV -6.82%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-18 15:14
betfred_uk🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.76%EV -9.93%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.62%EV -8.47%E -4.03%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.62%EV -6.82%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-17 12:06
Betsson🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -9.93%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.19%EV -7.60%E -3.58%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.07%EV -8.27%E -2.63%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-18 13:45
NordicBet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -9.93%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.19%EV -7.60%E -3.58%K -6.78%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.07%EV -8.27%E -2.63%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-18 13:40
888sport🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.93%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -6.29%E -2.93%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.64%E -4.21%K -6.32%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-18 14:55
William Hill🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.93%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -6.29%E -2.93%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.64%E -4.21%K -6.32%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-18 15:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.93%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -6.29%E -2.93%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.64%E -4.21%K -6.32%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-18 14:55
888sport (SE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.51%EV -9.93%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.23%EV -6.29%E -2.93%K -5.47%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.26%EV -12.64%E -4.21%K -6.32%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-18 14:55
Paddy Power🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -9.93%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.21%EV -12.83%E -6.41%K -12.83%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.40%EV -3.91%E -1.18%K -1.70%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-15 12:19
Unibet (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -9.93%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.01%EV -10.65%E -5.19%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.64%EV -8.27%E -2.63%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-18 15:15
theScore Bet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.16%EV -9.93%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.82%EV -12.83%E -6.41%K -12.83%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.01%EV -6.82%E -2.13%K -3.10%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-14 11:40
Suprabets🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.07%EV -9.93%E -3.01%K -4.32%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.54%EV -8.47%E -4.03%K -7.70%G +0.000%2.94I 34.01%NM 30.39%EV -14.39%E -4.89%K -7.42%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-18 13:45
Winamax (DE)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.31%EV -11.29%E -3.47%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.81%EV -8.47%E -4.03%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -3.91%E -1.18%K -1.70%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-18 13:40
Codere (IT)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.94%EV -11.29%E -3.47%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -8.47%E -4.03%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.82%EV -8.27%E -2.63%K -3.85%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-18 13:44
PlayUp🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.81%EV -11.29%E -3.47%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.04%EV -8.47%E -4.03%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.15%EV -9.73%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-18 13:50
Neds🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -11.29%E -3.47%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -10.65%E -5.19%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -9.73%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-17 11:50
Coral🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -11.29%E -3.47%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -10.65%E -5.19%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -9.73%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-17 11:50
LiveScore Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -11.29%E -3.47%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -10.65%E -5.19%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -9.73%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-16 08:20
Virgin Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -11.29%E -3.47%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -10.65%E -5.19%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -9.73%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-16 08:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -11.29%E -3.47%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -10.65%E -5.19%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -9.73%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-17 11:50
BetRivers🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -11.29%E -3.47%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -10.65%E -5.19%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -9.73%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-16 08:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.52%EV -11.29%E -3.47%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.63%EV -10.65%E -5.19%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.85%EV -9.73%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%11.8%2026-09-17 11:46
Sky Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.22%EV -11.29%E -3.47%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.24%EV -12.83%E -6.41%K -12.83%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.54%EV -9.73%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-16 12:00
Betclic (FR)🎯3.23I 30.96%NM 27.58%EV -11.84%E -3.67%K -5.31%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 43.88%EV -11.52%E -5.68%K -11.18%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 28.55%EV -9.15%E -2.93%K -4.32%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-18 13:45
Winamax (FR)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 28.50%EV -12.66%E -3.96%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.43%EV -8.47%E -4.03%K -7.70%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.06%EV -5.36%E -1.65%K -2.38%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-18 13:40
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 27.65%EV -12.66%E -3.96%K -5.75%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 43.80%EV -11.96%E -5.92%K -11.72%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.54%EV -9.73%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%13.0%2026-09-16 08:20
BoyleSports🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 28.47%EV -15.39%E -4.96%K -7.33%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.06%EV -10.65%E -5.19%K -10.14%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.47%EV -9.73%E -3.14%K -4.63%G +0.000%13.3%2026-09-14 02:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎3.70I 27.03%NM 26.16%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.60%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.25%3.3%2026-09-18 15:25
Smarkets◎3.60I 27.78%NM 26.59%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.50%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.91%4.5%2026-09-18 15:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.70I 27.03%NM 25.77%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.96%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.27%4.9%2026-09-18 15:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.65I 27.40%NM 25.90%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.59%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%5.8%2026-09-18 15:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.60I 27.78%NM 26.06%2.22I 45.05%NM 42.25%2.96I 33.78%NM 31.69%6.6%2026-09-18 15:25