The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Troyes v RC Lens

2026-10-17 18:45 UTC — Ligue 1 - France

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Troyes (Local)

Prediction 23.41%4.27fair odd
EV +1.14%
Edge +0.264%
Kelly +0.343%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 4.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.17%23.40%23.39%24.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.004.004.3227.78%24.98%25.00%23.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

RC Lens (Visit)

Prediction 52.77%1.90fair odd
EV -1.85%
Edge -0.996%
Kelly -2.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.66%52.79%52.75%54.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.751.751.8661.73%57.28%57.14%53.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.82%4.20fair odd
EV -3.29%
Edge -0.810%
Kelly -1.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.11%23.81%23.86%24.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.863.904.0627.78%25.93%25.64%24.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Troyes (Local): 23.41%; RC Lens (Visit): 52.77%; Draw: 23.82%. For Troyes (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.27. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.32, producing a positive expected value of +1.14%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯4.32I 23.15%NM 22.80%EV +1.14%E +0.264%K +0.343%G +0.004%1.86I 53.76%NM 52.95%EV -1.85%E -0.996%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 24.26%EV -3.29%E -0.810%K -1.07%G +0.000%1.5%2026-09-21 09:54
betfred_uk🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.81%EV -1.67%E -0.397%K -0.522%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.23%EV -5.02%E -2.79%K -6.27%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.95%EV -4.72%E -1.18%K -1.57%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-21 08:59
Marathon Bet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.81%EV -1.67%E -0.397%K -0.522%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.93%EV -4.49%E -2.48%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.26%EV -5.91%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-21 09:52
Betr (AU)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -1.67%E -0.397%K -0.522%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.93%EV -7.66%E -4.38%K -10.21%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -4.72%E -1.18%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-21 08:59
Unibet (UK)🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.20%EV -1.67%E -0.397%K -0.522%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.89%EV -8.71%E -5.04%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.91%EV -7.10%E -1.82%K -2.45%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-21 08:59
LeoVegas🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.27%EV -4.01%E -0.978%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.71%EV -10.30%E -6.06%K -14.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.03%EV -9.48%E -2.49%K -3.39%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-21 08:59
Betclic (FR)🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 22.17%EV -4.01%E -0.978%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 54.10%EV -11.35%E -6.76%K -16.69%G +0.000%3.83I 26.11%NM 23.73%EV -8.77%E -2.29%K -3.10%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-21 09:19
Pinnacle🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.72%EV -6.35%E -1.59%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.43%EV -4.49%E -2.48%K -5.55%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 23.84%EV -5.19%E -1.30%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-21 09:59
William Hill🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -6.35%E -1.59%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -7.66%E -4.38%K -10.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -11.86%E -3.21%K -4.39%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-21 09:19
888sport🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -6.35%E -1.59%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -7.66%E -4.38%K -10.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -11.86%E -3.21%K -4.39%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-21 09:15
888sport (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -6.35%E -1.59%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -7.66%E -4.38%K -10.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -11.86%E -3.21%K -4.39%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-21 09:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 22.90%EV -6.35%E -1.59%K -2.12%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 52.34%EV -7.66%E -4.38%K -10.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.76%EV -11.86%E -3.21%K -4.39%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-21 09:13
Bovada🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.84%EV -7.52%E -1.90%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.32%EV -5.02%E -2.79%K -6.27%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.84%EV -5.91%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-21 09:50
Winamax (DE)🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 23.13%EV -7.52%E -1.90%K -2.55%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 53.74%EV -10.30%E -6.06%K -14.71%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.13%EV -5.91%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000%9.5%2026-09-21 09:20
Tipico (DE)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 23.93%EV -8.69%E -2.23%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.73%EV -6.60%E -3.73%K -8.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -4.72%E -1.18%K -1.57%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-21 08:59
Unibet (FR)🎯3.90I 25.64%NM 22.41%EV -8.69%E -2.23%K -3.00%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 53.30%EV -13.46%E -8.21%K -21.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.28%EV -14.24%E -3.96%K -5.48%G +0.000%14.4%2026-09-21 09:19
Betway🎯3.75I 26.67%NM 24.65%EV -12.20%E -3.25%K -4.44%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 52.23%EV -6.60%E -3.73%K -8.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -4.72%E -1.18%K -1.57%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-21 09:29
Winamax (FR)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 23.27%EV -13.38%E -3.61%K -4.95%G +0.000%1.62I 61.73%NM 53.14%EV -14.52%E -8.96%K -23.42%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.59%EV -13.05%E -3.58%K -4.93%G +0.000%16.2%2026-09-21 09:20
BoyleSports🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 24.82%EV -15.72%E -4.37%K -6.04%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 51.66%EV -8.71%E -5.04%K -11.94%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.52%EV -9.48%E -2.49%K -3.39%G +0.000%11.9%2026-09-21 08:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎3.75I 26.67%NM 22.87%1.63I 61.35%NM 52.62%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.51%16.6%2026-09-21 09:20