The School of Odds
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RC Lens v Paris Saint Germain

Kickoff: 2026-05-12 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

RC Lens (Local)

Prediction 28.71%3.48fair odd
EV -2.39%
Edge -0.704%
Kelly -0.998%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.24%28.71%29.35%30.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.283.303.4032.26%30.51%30.30%29.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Paris Saint Germain (Visit)

Prediction 46.32%2.16fair odd
EV -3.65%
Edge -1.75%
Kelly -3.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.44%46.32%46.36%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.032.052.0850.00%49.26%48.78%48.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.97%4.00fair odd
EV -0.125%
Edge -0.031%
Kelly -0.042%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.18%24.97%24.29%26.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.703.754.0028.57%26.99%26.67%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: RC Lens (Local): 28.71%; Paris Saint Germain (Visit): 46.32%; Draw: 24.97%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.005. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.000, with an expected value of -0.125%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
888sport🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -2.39%E -0.704%K -0.998%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -7.35%E -3.68%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -12.61%E -3.60%K -5.04%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-13 01:30
William Hill🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -2.39%E -0.704%K -0.998%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -7.35%E -3.68%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -12.61%E -3.60%K -5.04%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-13 01:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -2.39%E -0.704%K -0.998%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -7.35%E -3.68%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -12.61%E -3.60%K -5.04%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-13 01:45
888sport (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -2.39%E -0.704%K -0.998%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -7.35%E -3.68%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -12.61%E -3.60%K -5.04%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-13 01:45
Coolbet🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.31%EV -5.27%E -1.60%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 46.51%EV -3.65%E -1.75%K -3.38%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.18%EV -0.125%E -0.031%K -0.042%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-12 21:10
betfred_uk🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.66%EV -5.27%E -1.60%K -2.29%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.13%EV -5.04%E -2.46%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -6.37%E -1.70%K -2.32%G +0.000%5.8%2026-04-13 11:29
Betr (AU)🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.67%EV -6.70%E -2.06%K -2.98%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.45%EV -5.04%E -2.46%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.88%EV -10.11%E -2.81%K -3.89%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-13 11:29
SportsBet🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.57%EV -8.14%E -2.54%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.16%EV -5.04%E -2.46%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.26%EV -2.62%E -0.672%K -0.904%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-12 22:20
FanDuel🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.57%EV -8.14%E -2.54%K -3.70%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.16%EV -5.04%E -2.46%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.26%EV -2.62%E -0.672%K -0.904%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-12 21:15
Sky Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.05%EV -11.01%E -3.55%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.44%EV -5.04%E -2.46%K -4.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -5.12%E -1.35%K -1.83%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-12 22:20
Paddy Power🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -11.01%E -3.55%K -5.24%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.05%EV -7.35%E -3.68%K -7.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.24%EV -5.12%E -1.35%K -1.83%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-12 21:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.19I 84.03%NM 31.69%1.19I 84.03%NM 31.69%1.03I 97.09%NM 36.62%165.2%2026-04-13 08:09
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.19I 84.03%NM 31.69%1.19I 84.03%NM 31.69%1.03I 97.09%NM 36.62%165.2%2026-04-13 07:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.19I 84.03%NM 31.69%1.19I 84.03%NM 31.69%1.03I 97.09%NM 36.62%165.2%2026-04-13 07:20