La escuela de los momios

Nantes v Toulouse

Inicio: 2026-05-17 19:00 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

60 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Nantes (Local)

Predicción 33.46%2.99momio equitativo
EV +2.37%
Ventaja +0.776%
Kelly +1.15%
Crecimiento +0.027%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.06

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
31.70%33.55%33.47%36.75%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.432.752.803.0641.15%36.33%35.71%32.68%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Toulouse (Visitante)

Predicción 39.16%2.55momio equitativo
EV +1.82%
Ventaja +0.702%
Kelly +1.14%
Crecimiento +0.021%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.03%39.13%39.10%40.71%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.252.422.402.6044.44%41.27%41.67%38.46%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.38%3.65momio equitativo
EV +1.31%
Ventaja +0.354%
Kelly +0.485%
Crecimiento +0.006%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.70

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
25.73%27.33%27.43%29.88%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.883.453.453.7034.72%29.01%28.99%27.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (60 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet3.06I 32.68%NM 31.70%EV +2.37%E +0.776%K +1.15%G +0.027%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.42%EV -6.01%E -2.50%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.88%EV -4.71%E -1.35%K -1.90%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-17 18:51
Tipico (DE)2.95I 33.90%NM 31.74%EV -1.31%E -0.442%K -0.669%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.71%EV -9.92%E -4.32%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -6.90%E -2.03%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-17 18:55
BetUS2.94I 34.01%NM 33.08%EV -1.64%E -0.558%K -0.845%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 39.06%EV -2.48%E -0.998%K -1.67%G +0.000%3.49I 28.65%NM 27.87%EV -4.44%E -1.27%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-17 18:50
Marathon Bet2.91I 34.36%NM 33.33%EV -2.64%E -0.908%K -1.38%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.11%EV -2.88%E -1.16%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.56%EV -3.62%E -1.03%K -1.44%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-17 18:55
FanDuel2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -2.98%E -1.03%K -1.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.98%EV -7.97%E -3.39%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.63%EV -6.90%E -2.03%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-17 18:55
GTbets2.89I 34.60%NM 32.85%EV -3.31%E -1.15%K -1.75%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.39%EV -5.62%E -2.33%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.76%EV -6.36%E -1.86%K -2.63%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-17 18:55
Pinnacle2.88I 34.72%NM 33.77%EV -3.65%E -1.27%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 38.75%EV -1.70%E -0.678%K -1.13%G +0.000%3.54I 28.25%NM 27.48%EV -3.07%E -0.868%K -1.21%G +0.000%2.8%2026-05-17 18:45
Sky Bet2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -3.65%E -1.27%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -6.79%E -2.85%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -6.90%E -2.03%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-17 18:55
Bet Victor2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -3.65%E -1.27%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.58%EV -6.79%E -2.85%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.71%EV -6.90%E -2.03%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-17 18:55
Paddy Power2.88I 34.72%NM 32.44%EV -3.65%E -1.27%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.25%EV -6.79%E -2.85%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.31%EV -9.64%E -2.92%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 18:54
888sport2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -3.65%E -1.27%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90%EV -9.92%E -4.32%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -11.01%E -3.39%K -4.89%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-17 18:55
888sport (SE)2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -3.65%E -1.27%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90%EV -9.92%E -4.32%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -11.01%E -3.39%K -4.89%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-17 18:55
Mr Green (SE)2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -3.65%E -1.27%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90%EV -9.92%E -4.32%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -11.01%E -3.39%K -4.89%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-17 18:55
William Hill2.88I 34.72%NM 31.86%EV -3.65%E -1.27%K -1.94%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90%EV -9.92%E -4.32%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.24%EV -11.01%E -3.39%K -4.89%G +0.000%9.0%2026-05-17 18:55
Betclic (FR)2.87I 34.84%NM 32.92%EV -3.98%E -1.39%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.86%EV -7.18%E -3.03%K -5.24%G +0.000%3.47I 28.82%NM 27.22%EV -4.99%E -1.44%K -2.02%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 18:52
SportsBet2.87I 34.84%NM 32.90%EV -3.98%E -1.39%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.34%EV -6.01%E -2.50%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.77%EV -6.90%E -2.03%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 18:55
Coolbet2.85I 35.09%NM 34.11%EV -4.65%E -1.63%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.89%EV -2.09%E -0.837%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.00%EV -1.43%E -0.397%K -0.549%G +0.000%2.9%2026-05-17 18:55
DraftKings2.85I 35.09%NM 33.58%EV -4.65%E -1.63%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.07%EV -4.05%E -1.65%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.35%EV -4.17%E -1.19%K -1.67%G +0.000%4.5%2026-05-17 18:45
Codere (IT)2.85I 35.09%NM 33.37%EV -4.65%E -1.63%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 39.46%EV -5.62%E -2.33%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.17%EV -4.17%E -1.19%K -1.67%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-17 18:55
Unibet (UK)2.85I 35.09%NM 33.18%EV -4.65%E -1.63%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.40%EV -6.01%E -2.50%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.41%EV -5.54%E -1.60%K -2.26%G +0.000%5.7%2026-05-17 18:50
Fanatics2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -4.65%E -1.63%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.25%EV -6.01%E -2.50%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -6.90%E -2.03%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-17 18:50
Bovada2.85I 35.09%NM 32.97%EV -4.65%E -1.63%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.41I 41.49%NM 38.99%EV -5.62%E -2.33%K -3.98%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.05%EV -8.27%E -2.47%K -3.52%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-17 18:49
Unibet (FR)2.85I 35.09%NM 32.78%EV -4.65%E -1.63%K -2.51%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.75%EV -7.97%E -3.39%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.47%EV -6.90%E -2.03%K -2.88%G +0.000%7.1%2026-05-17 18:55
Suprabets2.81I 35.59%NM 33.14%EV -5.99%E -2.13%K -3.31%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 38.97%EV -6.40%E -2.68%K -4.60%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.89%EV -8.55%E -2.56%K -3.65%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-17 18:49
Coral2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -6.32%E -2.26%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -4.05%E -1.65%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -6.90%E -2.03%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 18:50
Caesars2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -6.32%E -2.26%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -4.05%E -1.65%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -6.90%E -2.03%K -2.88%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-17 18:42
Betway2.80I 35.71%NM 33.69%EV -6.32%E -2.26%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.73%EV -2.09%E -0.837%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.58%EV -9.64%E -2.92%K -4.19%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-17 18:45
Winamax (DE)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.55%EV -6.32%E -2.26%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.98%EV -7.97%E -3.39%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.47%EV -2.80%E -0.788%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-17 18:55
Ladbrokes (UK)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -6.32%E -2.26%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -6.01%E -2.50%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -6.90%E -2.03%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-17 18:50
Ladbrokes (AU)2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -6.32%E -2.26%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -6.01%E -2.50%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -6.90%E -2.03%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-17 18:50
Neds2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -6.32%E -2.26%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -6.01%E -2.50%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -6.90%E -2.03%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-17 18:50
BetMGM2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -6.32%E -2.26%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -6.01%E -2.50%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -6.90%E -2.03%K -2.88%G +0.000%6.8%2026-05-17 18:51
Everygame2.80I 35.71%NM 33.31%EV -6.32%E -2.26%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.86%EV -6.01%E -2.50%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.84%EV -8.27%E -2.47%K -3.52%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-17 18:49
TAB2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -6.32%E -2.26%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -6.01%E -2.50%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.14%EV -9.64%E -2.92%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 18:50
PlayUp2.80I 35.71%NM 32.90%EV -6.32%E -2.26%K -3.51%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.19%EV -7.97%E -3.39%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.91%EV -9.64%E -2.92%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-17 18:51
LowVig.ag2.76I 36.23%NM 34.99%EV -7.66%E -2.78%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 38.18%EV -0.917%E -0.363%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83%EV -1.43%E -0.397%K -0.549%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-17 18:25
BetOnline.ag2.76I 36.23%NM 34.99%EV -7.66%E -2.78%K -4.35%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 38.18%EV -0.917%E -0.363%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.83%EV -1.43%E -0.397%K -0.549%G +0.000%3.5%2026-05-17 18:25
betfred_uk2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -8.00%E -2.91%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -6.01%E -2.50%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -4.17%E -1.19%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 18:55
Betr (AU)2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -8.00%E -2.91%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -6.01%E -2.50%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -4.17%E -1.19%K -1.67%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-17 18:55
Winamax (FR)2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -8.00%E -2.91%K -4.57%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -9.92%E -4.32%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -4.17%E -1.19%K -1.67%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-17 18:55
theScore Bet2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -9.67%E -3.58%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.84%EV -6.01%E -2.50%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -4.17%E -1.19%K -1.67%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-17 18:51
Bet Right2.70I 37.04%NM 34.39%EV -9.67%E -3.58%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.69%EV -6.01%E -2.50%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.92%EV -5.54%E -1.60%K -2.26%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-17 18:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.70I 37.04%NM 31.87%EV -9.67%E -3.58%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 38.25%EV -11.88%E -5.28%K -9.51%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 29.88%EV -21.14%E -7.34%K -11.25%G +0.000%16.2%2026-05-17 18:55
Unibet (SE)2.63I 38.02%NM 36.73%EV -12.01%E -4.57%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.16%EV +1.82%E +0.702%K +1.14%G +0.021%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.11%EV +1.31%E +0.354%K +0.485%G +0.006%3.5%2026-05-17 18:55
LeoVegas (SE)2.63I 38.02%NM 36.73%EV -12.01%E -4.57%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.16%EV +1.82%E +0.702%K +1.14%G +0.021%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.11%EV +1.31%E +0.354%K +0.485%G +0.006%3.5%2026-05-17 18:55
Svenska Spel2.63I 38.02%NM 36.73%EV -12.01%E -4.57%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.16%EV +1.82%E +0.702%K +1.14%G +0.021%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.11%EV +1.31%E +0.354%K +0.485%G +0.006%3.5%2026-05-17 18:55
ATG (SE)2.63I 38.02%NM 36.73%EV -12.01%E -4.57%K -7.37%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 37.16%EV +1.82%E +0.702%K +1.14%G +0.021%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.11%EV +1.31%E +0.354%K +0.485%G +0.006%3.5%2026-05-17 18:55
BoyleSports2.62I 38.17%NM 34.37%EV -12.35%E -4.71%K -7.62%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.15%EV -9.92%E -4.32%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -6.90%E -2.03%K -2.88%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-17 18:50
Unibet (NL)2.60I 38.46%NM 36.60%EV -13.01%E -5.01%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.32%EV -0.134%E -0.053%K -0.086%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.07%EV -0.059%E -0.016%K -0.022%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-17 18:30
Casumo2.55I 39.22%NM 36.52%EV -14.69%E -5.76%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.25%EV -2.09%E -0.837%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.23%EV -2.80%E -0.788%K -1.10%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-17 18:51
Grosvenor2.55I 39.22%NM 36.52%EV -14.69%E -5.76%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.25%EV -2.09%E -0.837%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.23%EV -2.80%E -0.788%K -1.10%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-17 18:51
Bally Bet2.55I 39.22%NM 36.52%EV -14.69%E -5.76%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.25%EV -2.09%E -0.837%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.23%EV -2.80%E -0.788%K -1.10%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-17 18:55
betPARX2.55I 39.22%NM 36.52%EV -14.69%E -5.76%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.25%EV -2.09%E -0.837%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.23%EV -2.80%E -0.788%K -1.10%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-17 18:54
Unibet2.55I 39.22%NM 36.27%EV -14.69%E -5.76%K -9.48%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.30%EV -2.88%E -1.16%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.43%EV -4.17%E -1.19%K -1.67%G +0.000%8.1%2026-05-17 18:55
TABtouch2.50I 40.00%NM 36.73%EV -16.36%E -6.54%K -10.91%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.03%EV -2.88%E -1.16%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -4.17%E -1.19%K -1.67%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-17 18:40
PMU (FR)2.50I 40.00%NM 36.73%EV -16.36%E -6.54%K -10.91%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.03%EV -2.88%E -1.16%K -1.94%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.24%EV -4.17%E -1.19%K -1.67%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-17 18:35
BetRivers2.48I 40.32%NM 36.62%EV -17.03%E -6.87%K -11.51%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.06%EV -4.05%E -1.65%K -2.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.32%EV -5.54%E -1.60%K -2.26%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-17 18:35
LiveScore Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 36.75%EV -18.03%E -7.36%K -12.44%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.52%EV -6.01%E -2.50%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -4.17%E -1.19%K -1.67%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-17 18:30
Virgin Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 36.75%EV -18.03%E -7.36%K -12.44%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.52%EV -6.01%E -2.50%K -4.29%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.73%EV -4.17%E -1.19%K -1.67%G +0.000%11.1%2026-05-17 18:30
LeoVegas2.43I 41.15%NM 36.41%EV -18.70%E -7.70%K -13.08%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.18%EV -6.79%E -2.85%K -4.92%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.41%EV -8.27%E -2.47%K -3.52%G +0.000%13.0%2026-05-17 18:30
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook3.10I 32.26%NM 32.12%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.83%3.55I 28.17%NM 28.05%0.4%2026-05-17 18:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.05I 32.79%NM 32.58%2.52I 39.68%NM 39.43%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99%0.6%2026-05-17 18:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)3.05I 32.79%NM 32.48%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.62%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.90%1.0%2026-05-17 18:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)3.05I 32.79%NM 32.48%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.62%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.90%1.0%2026-05-17 18:55
Kalshi3.03I 33.00%NM 32.67%2.50I 40.00%NM 39.60%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.73%1.0%2026-05-17 18:55
Smarkets3.00I 33.33%NM 32.61%2.48I 40.32%NM 39.44%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.95%2.2%2026-05-17 18:55