The School of Odds
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Marseille v Le Havre

2026-10-25 16:15 UTC — Ligue 1 - France

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marseille (Local)

Prediction 60.93%1.64fair odd
EV -1.90%
Edge -1.18%
Kelly -3.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.91%60.84%61.02%62.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.461.531.531.6168.49%65.57%65.36%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Le Havre (Visit)

Prediction 16.43%6.09fair odd
EV +1.54%
Edge +0.249%
Kelly +0.297%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 6.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.56%16.57%16.25%18.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.905.525.506.1820.41%18.10%18.18%16.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.64%4.42fair odd
EV -1.96%
Edge -0.453%
Kelly -0.589%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.46%22.59%22.73%23.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.094.054.3326.32%24.48%24.69%23.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Marseille (Local): 60.93%; Le Havre (Visit): 16.43%; Draw: 22.64%. For Le Havre (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.09. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 6.18, producing a positive expected value of +1.54%.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 61.26%EV -1.90%E -1.18%K -3.12%G +0.000%6.18I 16.18%NM 15.96%EV +1.54%E +0.249%K +0.297%G +0.005%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.78%EV -1.96%E -0.453%K -0.589%G +0.000%1.4%2026-10-11 13:09
Tipico (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.22%EV -8.61%E -5.74%K -17.21%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.56%EV -1.42%E -0.237%K -0.284%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.22%EV -4.91%E -1.17%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-11 13:04
Marathon Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.46%EV -4.95%E -3.17%K -8.84%G +0.000%5.90I 16.95%NM 16.25%EV -3.06%E -0.519%K -0.625%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.30%EV -2.64%E -0.614%K -0.801%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-11 14:24
SportsBet🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.59%EV -6.17%E -4.01%K -11.43%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.35%EV -4.71%E -0.811%K -0.980%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.06%EV -2.64%E -0.614%K -0.801%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-11 13:00
FanDuel🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.35%EV -9.83%E -6.64%K -20.47%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.19%EV -6.35%E -1.11%K -1.35%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.46%EV -2.64%E -0.614%K -0.801%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-11 13:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 61.03%EV -9.22%E -6.19%K -18.81%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.24%EV -7.99%E -1.43%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73%EV -9.43%E -2.36%K -3.14%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-11 13:04
betfred_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.68%EV -4.34%E -2.77%K -7.62%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.32%EV -9.64%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 22.00%EV -1.96%E -0.453%K -0.589%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-11 13:19
Betr (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.73%EV -5.56%E -3.59%K -10.11%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.12%EV -9.64%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.15%EV -3.77%E -0.888%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-11 13:20
Sky Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.88%EV -6.78%E -4.43%K -12.79%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.94%EV -9.64%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18%EV -4.91%E -1.17%K -1.53%G +0.000%7.4%2026-10-11 13:34
Unibet (UK)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 60.06%EV -6.17%E -4.01%K -11.43%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.82%EV -9.64%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.12%EV -9.43%E -2.36%K -3.14%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-11 13:04
William Hill🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.55%EV -5.56%E -3.59%K -10.11%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.78%EV -9.64%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.67%EV -11.70%E -3.00%K -4.03%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-11 13:24
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.35%EV -8.61%E -5.74%K -17.21%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.73%EV -9.64%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -4.91%E -1.17%K -1.53%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-11 13:05
888sport🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.86%EV -6.78%E -4.43%K -12.79%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.65%EV -9.64%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -11.70%E -3.00%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-11 13:19
888sport (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.86%EV -6.78%E -4.43%K -12.79%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.65%EV -9.64%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -11.70%E -3.00%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-11 13:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.86%EV -6.78%E -4.43%K -12.79%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.65%EV -9.64%E -1.75%K -2.14%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.48%EV -11.70%E -3.00%K -4.03%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-11 13:19
LeoVegas🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.19%EV -7.39%E -4.86%K -14.21%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 16.94%EV -11.28%E -2.09%K -2.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.87%EV -9.43%E -2.36%K -3.14%G +0.000%9.3%2026-10-11 13:00
Winamax (DE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 60.65%EV -8.61%E -5.74%K -17.21%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 17.16%EV -12.92%E -2.44%K -3.00%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.19%EV -7.17%E -1.75%K -2.31%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-11 13:00
Unibet (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 60.06%EV -11.04%E -7.56%K -24.01%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 16.86%EV -14.56%E -2.80%K -3.47%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.08%EV -13.96%E -3.67%K -4.99%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-11 13:00
Betway🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.91%EV -5.56%E -3.59%K -10.11%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.26%EV -17.85%E -3.57%K -4.46%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.83%EV -9.43%E -2.36%K -3.14%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-11 14:00
Winamax (FR)🎯1.46I 68.49%NM 59.45%EV -11.04%E -7.56%K -24.01%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 17.71%EV -19.49%E -3.98%K -5.00%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.84%EV -13.96%E -3.67%K -4.99%G +0.000%15.2%2026-10-11 13:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.54I 64.94%NM 62.49%5.88I 17.01%NM 16.37%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.15%3.9%2026-10-11 13:10