The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Lyon v Nice

2026-10-18 18:45 UTC — Ligue 1 - France

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lyon (Local)

Prediction 57.45%1.74fair odd
EV -1.76%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -2.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.98%57.47%57.51%59.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.491.611.621.7167.11%62.17%61.73%58.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nice (Visit)

Prediction 19.30%5.18fair odd
EV +2.12%
Edge +0.401%
Kelly +0.494%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 5.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.17%19.29%19.31%20.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.404.844.805.2922.73%20.64%20.83%18.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.24%4.30fair odd
EV -2.38%
Edge -0.566%
Kelly -0.743%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.14%23.24%23.18%24.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.803.974.004.2026.32%25.16%25.00%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Lyon (Local): 57.45%; Nice (Visit): 19.30%; Draw: 23.24%. For Nice (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.18. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 5.29, producing a positive expected value of +2.12%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 57.66%EV -1.76%E -1.03%K -2.47%G +0.000%5.29I 18.90%NM 18.64%EV +2.12%E +0.401%K +0.494%G +0.010%4.16I 24.04%NM 23.70%EV -3.31%E -0.795%K -1.05%G +0.000%1.4%2026-09-21 11:29
Marathon Bet🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.73%EV -4.63%E -2.79%K -7.01%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.61%EV -0.583%E -0.113%K -0.141%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.66%EV -5.86%E -1.45%K -1.92%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-21 11:23
betfred_uk🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.49%EV -6.93%E -4.28%K -11.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.95%EV -3.48%E -0.696%K -0.870%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.56%EV -2.38%E -0.566%K -0.743%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-21 09:09
Betr (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.17%EV -6.93%E -4.28%K -11.17%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.85%EV -3.48%E -0.696%K -0.870%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -4.70%E -1.15%K -1.52%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-21 09:08
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.45%EV -9.23%E -5.84%K -15.91%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.47%EV -3.48%E -0.696%K -0.870%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.09%EV -7.03%E -1.76%K -2.34%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-21 09:09
LeoVegas🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.43%EV -9.80%E -6.24%K -17.19%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.35%EV -3.48%E -0.696%K -0.870%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.22%EV -8.19%E -2.07%K -2.78%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-21 09:09
Betclic (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.39%EV -12.10%E -7.91%K -22.83%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.17%EV -3.48%E -0.696%K -0.870%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.44%EV -5.86%E -1.45%K -1.92%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-21 09:09
Pinnacle🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.37%EV -5.20%E -3.15%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.32%EV -5.41%E -1.10%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.06I 24.63%NM 23.31%EV -5.63%E -1.39%K -1.84%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-21 12:49
Bovada🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 57.09%EV -5.78%E -3.52%K -9.03%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.51%EV -7.34%E -1.53%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.41%EV -7.03%E -1.76%K -2.34%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-21 09:50
888sport🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.24%EV -5.20%E -3.15%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -7.34%E -1.53%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.42%EV -11.67%E -3.07%K -4.17%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-21 09:15
William Hill🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.24%EV -5.20%E -3.15%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -7.34%E -1.53%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.42%EV -11.67%E -3.07%K -4.17%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-21 09:19
888sport (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.24%EV -5.20%E -3.15%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -7.34%E -1.53%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.42%EV -11.67%E -3.07%K -4.17%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-21 09:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.24%EV -5.20%E -3.15%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.33%EV -7.34%E -1.53%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.42%EV -11.67%E -3.07%K -4.17%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-21 09:13
Winamax (DE)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 58.95%EV -11.52%E -7.48%K -21.34%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.91%EV -7.34%E -1.53%K -1.93%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.14%EV -4.70%E -1.15%K -1.52%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-21 09:09
Unibet (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 58.57%EV -13.82%E -9.21%K -27.64%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.30%EV -7.34%E -1.53%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.12%EV -11.67%E -3.07%K -4.17%G +0.000%13.8%2026-09-21 09:09
Tipico (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.79%EV -6.93%E -4.28%K -11.17%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.92%EV -9.27%E -1.97%K -2.51%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.29%EV -2.38%E -0.566%K -0.743%G +0.000%6.8%2026-09-21 09:09
Betway🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.81%EV -7.50%E -4.66%K -12.30%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.33%EV -13.13%E -2.92%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.87%EV -7.03%E -1.76%K -2.34%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-21 09:54
BoyleSports🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.98%EV -6.93%E -4.28%K -11.17%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.15%EV -13.13%E -2.92%K -3.75%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.87%EV -11.67%E -3.07%K -4.17%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-21 09:09
Winamax (FR)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 57.95%EV -14.40%E -9.66%K -29.38%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.62%EV -15.06%E -3.42%K -4.43%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.43%EV -10.51%E -2.73%K -3.69%G +0.000%15.8%2026-09-21 09:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.49I 67.11%NM 57.49%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.04%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.47%16.7%2026-09-21 09:09